OneFootball
·23 September 2026
In partnership with
Yahoo sportsOneFootball
·23 September 2026
The international break gives us time every year to reflect (this time for even longer) on the opening Serie A matches. We look at the numbers, perhaps also with the Fantasy auction in mind, and ask ourselves: "Who has done better and who has done worse than expected?".
In front of goal, we can find a numerical answer: the difference between expected goals and goals scored. Here is the Top 5 of the players who have overperformed most in front of goal at the start of this season.
The Milan winger has lit up Serie A: whenever he comes on, he always beats his man, and physically he already looks on a completely different level compared to our league. But above all, Diego Moreira scores: 3 goals in 127 minutes played.
What is most striking is the quality of his goals, none of them were ordinary: 0.87 expected xG and as many as 3 goals scored. No one has overperformed more in the opening rounds.
We stay on Milan’s left flank, and we remember Alphadjo Cisse’s two goals well: a shot to the far post against Torino and a move created out of nothing against Juventus. 2 goals from 7 shots attempted, with 0.48 xG created.
It is inevitable to find quality players in this ranking, and after a year Edon Zhegrova is proving he is one too: the 2 goals scored late in the match against Sassuolo earn him 3rd place, because over the whole season he has totaled only 0.47 xG from 5 shots attempted. A figure also influenced by the fact he has played only 72 minutes.
Varela has surprised everyone since his debut against Inter and repeated it in the following matches too: 4 goals scored from 2.62 xG created. The Monza striker only failed to score against Lecce, and in every game he has shown that he is always willing to shoot: 11 attempts in 4 matches, with an extremely high conversion rate.
The Juventus attacking midfielder - on loan at Sassuolo - had already shown last season, with his golazo against Inter, that he knows how to hit the target. This year he is confirming it with significantly more playing time: 3 goals scored from 1.70 xG produced.
Another figure is also striking: the 3 consecutive goals against Bologna, Juventus and Monza turned around a trend that had seen him lower in this ranking, given that in the opening rounds he was at -0.33 xG.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.
📸 Marco Luzzani - 2026 Getty Images