Should Arsenal be worried about barren Premier League run vs Man Utd? | OneFootball

Arsenal may have put seven goals past PSV in their Champions League win in midweek, but the Gunners are goalless in two in the Premier League.

Mikel Arteta’s men have taken one points from those two matches, beaten by West Ham United and drawing with Nottingham Forest. The story of those matches was wasteful finishing, and Arsenal cannot afford to let that happen again this weekend.

The Gunners travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, knowing their title hopes are on the line. While Man Utd aren’t doing too well at the moment, they did knock Arsenal out of the FA Cup earlier this season.

On the face of it, Arsenal’s problem is easy to work out. They’re missing their top three goalscorers due to injury. Kai Havertz, who leads the way on nine goals, is out for the season; while Gabriel Martinelli (six goals) and Bukayo Saka (five) have also experienced a prolonged period on the sidelines.

Saka was also Arsenal’s best creator, with 10 assists and 19 big chances created — both more than any other Gunners player. Declan Rice has only recently overtaken Saka for most chances created (44 to 42), but he’s played over 700 more minutes.

Across their past two league matches, Rice created five chances for Arsenal, level alongside Martin Odegaard. Leandro Trossard led the way with seven chances created. Rice was also one of three players to create a big chance, with Odegaard and Thomas Partey joining him.

But chance creation wasn’t Arsenal’s problem. It wasn’t taking shots either. Across their past two league games, Arsenal had a whopping 33 shots. They took 20 against West Ham, posting an Expected Goals total of 1.22, with 14 of their shots coming from inside the box. Against Nottingham Forest, Arsenal had 13 shots, with 0.99 xG and eight efforts from inside the box.

The problem? Arsenal only had three shots on target across those two matches, with two against West Ham and one vs Nottingham Forest. Against West Ham, Arsenal had six players with at least two shots, with Trossard (five) and Odegaard (three) standing out. But Trossard only hit the target with one of his five efforts, and Riccardo Calafiori had the other shot on target.

Trossard had another two shots against Forest, without hitting the target. And finishing has been poor across the whole team, with shot placement really letting Arsenal down.

Across the past two league games, Arsenal have had 13 different players take a shot. Eleven of those failed to hit the target, with the other three still registering a shot placement ratio of less than 1.0. Shot placement ratio is the ratio of xG to xG on target. The higher the shot placement ratio, the better the finishing. For example, a shot placement ratio of 2.0 means xGOT is double the value of xG; a shot placement ratio of 1.0 means xGOT and xG are the same.

Mikel Merino has posted the highest xG among Arsenal players in their past two Premier League games, at 0.51. But his xGOT drops to 0.39, for a shot placement ratio of 0.75. Trossard’s shot placement ratio is 0.32, while Calafiori is lower at 0.11. As a team, Arsenal’s shot placement ratio was 0.24.

And then you have to look at the players taking the shots. Three of the top five players for xG at Arsenal across their past two league games are defenders. Calafiori (0.19) is joined by Kieran Tierney (0.21) and William Saliba (0.19). For Arsenal’s recognise attacking players, Raheem Sterling ranks seventh (0.14), Ethan Nwaneri is 11th (0.08), alongside Odegaard.

The contrast to the win over PSV is stark. Arsenal had 15 shots in midweek, hitting the target eight times. Three of the top four players for xG were attacking players, with Calafiori (0.37) the only exception. Odegaard posted 0.39 xG alongside his two goals, Ethan Nwaneri had 0.36 and one goal, while Trossard posted 0.2 alongside his goal.

All six Arsenal players to register a shot on target posted a shot placement ratio of over 1.0. Odegaard was the worst, and his shot placement ratio was 1.04. Merino was the best, posting a shot placement ratio of 4.78, upping his xG of 0.09 to 0.44.

This weekend, Arsenal face a Man Utd side that has faced 1.44 xGOT conceded per game in the Premier League this season. And they’ve conceded 1.44 goals per game from that, offering very little in terms of resistance for shots on target.

So, if Arsenal really did turn the corner against PSV in the Champions League, they won’t need to worry. If PSV proved the exception, it could be another long afternoon for the travelling Arsenal fans.