Silver lining: All-Brazilian final boosts São Paulo’s 2026 hopes | OneFootball

If São Paulo fans are still feeling ‘hungover’ from the confirmation that they will be overtaken in the number of Brazilian titles in the Libertadores, they need to look at the bright side of the Palmeiras vs. Flamengo final, if there is one.

With the leader and runner-up of the Brasileirão in the final, another spot via the National League for the next Libertadores will necessarily be opened, thus turning the G6 into a G7 for tournament qualification.

As a result, Tricolor’s chances of securing a spot have doubled, according to data from the renowned Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

Previously, the Morumbi team had only an 8.8% chance of qualifying for the tournament through the Brasileirão, but now this possibility is at 17.8%, according to UFMG.

It’s worth noting that this chance could increase even more, since if the Copa do Brasil champion is among the qualified teams, the G8 will determine the teams that qualify through the Brasileirão. But this will only be decided at the end of the year, as the national cup finals will take place after the end of the Brasileirão.

The Copa do Brasil semifinals feature Cruzeiro (3rd), Fluminense (7th), Vasco (8th), and Corinthians (10th). All are in the upper part of the points table.

With the chances of reaching the Libertadores increasing, the possibility of securing a spot in the Copa Sudamericana has decreased slightly, though it remains very high. It went from 79.5% to 76.5%.

For the most desperate fans, the almost nonexistent chance of relegation has dropped a bit more. It’s now at 0.17%, down 0.02%, as reported by the Federal University of Minas Gerais.

The situation in the standings is well known. Tricolor is in 9th place, with 41 points, one less than 8th place Vasco, their rival this Sunday (2nd) at São Januário for the 31st round of the Brasileirão, making the match a major showdown in the quest for the much-desired Libertadores spot next year.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.