Six of the closest races for Champions League qualification this season | OneFootball

The race for Champions League qualification in the Premier League looks to be pretty much wrapped up, unless sixth place becomes a valid qualification route.

That would only happen if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League – which, to be fair, is easily imaginable. In that case, Bournemouth, Brighton or even Brentford would have a chance of sneaking into Europe’s top competition.

But the battle for European qualification is even closer – and less conditional – in some other leagues.

We’ve picked out six of the closest races for Champions League football to keep an eye on before the end of the season.

Serie A

By the March international break, with eight games remaining for each team upon their return, there was a six-point gap at the top of the table between leaders Inter and rivals AC Milan.

Inter were the obvious favourites to go on and win the title, but Milan were – just ahead of Napoli – their closest challengers.

Fast forward a few weeks and the picture has been transformed. As expected, Inter have been confirmed as champions. But Milan are no longer second. They’re not even third.

From being one of the last few teams with any hope of catching Inter in the title race, Milan have become one of the teams to catch in the race for Champions League qualification, now level on points with fifth-placed Roma after a chaotically eventful evening of calcio on Sunday.

Roma came from behind with two stoppage-time goals to beat Parma, before Milan went three goals down to Atalanta and could only claw two back.

At half time of Milan’s game, it was unearthed that they had recorded fewer shots on target since the international break than Roma’s striker Donyell Malen.

Their efforts in the second half mean that isn’t true anymore, but it highlighted how the tables have been turning. Milan have just one win under their belt since the international break.

But the battle for a top-four spot in Serie A isn’t just between those two sides. Juventus in third are only one point above the threshold and aren’t a safe bet by any means to remain up there, while second-placed Napoli lost on Monday, which means they only have a three-point cushion in the Champions League places.

And down in sixth, Como secured European football with their latest win, but it’s not out of the question that it could be European football of the Champions League variety, since they sit just two points behind Milan.

All five of those teams have two games left to play this season. Should any of them finish level on points, head-to-head records will be used to determine who finishes where.

Bundesliga

Just one round of games remain in the Bundesliga before this season is over and while the title is already wrapped up for Bayern Munich (surprise, surprise), there’s a lot still at stake.

The relegation battle is captivating, with the bottom three sides all level on points and only two of them guaranteed to go down.

Meanwhile, in the race for a top-four finish, three teams are still in the hunt to join Bayern, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in next season’s Champions League.

Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are separated solely by goal difference; the former’s is superior by five and thus they have the initiative going into the final day.

But Stuttgart’s goal difference is only one better than Bayer Leverkusen’s. Thus, if Leverkusen were to win on the final day and Stuttgart and Hoffenheim were to lose, it would be the 2023-24 champions sneaking into the final Champions League spot after a turbulent first season post-Xabi Alonso.

Stuttgart’s last game is away to Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim are on the road against Borussia Monchengladbach and Leverkusen will be hosting Hamburg.

None of them can drop out of the top six, so the two who fail to reach the Champions League spot will definitely go into the Europa League instead.

Ligue 1

Only a top-three finish in Ligue 1 guarantees access to the UCL league phase. The team who finish fourth go into the third qualifying round, whilst fifth is only good enough for the Europa League.

And yet who will go into the UCL league phase (along with top two PSG and Lens), the qualifiers or the UEL is all still to be decided on the final day.

Lille are in pole position to secure third, but their last game is against an Auxerre side who could really do with a win to avoid falling into the relegation play-off place.

Lyon and Rennes have tricky games too; the former are at home to second-placed Lens, and the latter are away to sixth-placed Marseille – who, incidentally, would leapfrog them into the Europa League spot with a win.

Goal difference will separate any teams who finish level on points in Ligue 1. Lille and Lyon are identical on that front.

In a nutshell, to finish third: Lille just need to better or equal Lyon’s and Rennes’ results; Lyon would be fine with a draw if Lille lose and Rennes don’t win; and Rennes need to win while hoping Lille lose and Lyon fail to win.

Every combination of who will finish third, fourth and fifth is possible going into the final day.

Liga Portugal

Jose Mourinho is one game away from guiding Benfica to an unbeaten season in Liga Portugal. However, that unbeaten season definitely isn’t enough for them to become champions – Porto have already won it – and it might not even be enough for them to reach the Champions League.

Only the Portuguese league winners go straight into the UCL league phase. It’s a third qualifying round spot for the runners up, while third place counts for the Europa League qualifiers.

Ahead of the final day of the season, Sporting CP sit in second place, two points above Benfica. They were level on points until Benfica drew with Braga on Monday while Sporting won at Rio Ave.

For their last game each, Benfica are away at Estoril and Sporting are at home to Gil Vicente. Despite home advantage, Sporting arguably have the tougher opponent, since Gil Vicente are 11 points above Estoril.

If Benfica win and Sporting draw, they would finish level on points, which in Portugal means their head-to-head record will decide their final ranking.

Benfica have the edge on that, but they secured it dramatically. Their first game this season finished as a 1-1 draw and the return fixture looked like it was about to too, until Rafa Silva’s 93rd-minute winner for Benfica.

And that could be crucial, since it would otherwise have gone down to goal difference – stakes in which Sporting are 15 better off than Benfica.

Super League Greece

There are no guaranteed UCL league phase places for Greek teams, but the league winners (AEK Athens) go into the play-off round and the runners-up go into the second qualifying round.

As things stand, PAOK and Olympiacos are neck and neck on 62 points in the tussle for second place. PAOK have the better head to head record, which is the first tiebreaking factor (if it had gone down to goal difference instead, they would be split by just one at the moment, although that’s now a moot point).

Two games each remain and, since the Super League is in its championship round, both have exactly the same opponents to face: fellow top-four sides AEK Athens and Panathinaikos.

Olympiacos have Panathinaikos at home and AEK away, whereas PAOK have AEK at home and Panathinaikos away.

For extra incentive, PAOK have never made it past the qualifying or play-off rounds of the Champions League.

Polish Ekstraklasa

We can’t take our eyes off the Polish Ekstraklasa table at the moment.

Yes, whoever finishes in the top two will only start in the Champions League’s second qualifying round and may not even make it to the league phase, but the battle to stand a chance is mesmerising.

With each contender having either two or three games left, just one point separates the team in second (a UCL qualifying spot) from sixth (no European football at all).

Realistically, it’s between the teams in second, third and fourth, each of whom have a game in hand over the duo directly beneath them.

But the fact that those three teams are currently level on points proves it could be decided by the finest of margins. Oh, and third and fourth still have to play each other next.

In fact, Jagellonia Bialystok’s three remaining games are against the teams currently in second, fifth and sixth.

If teams finish level, head to head records will be decisive. At this rate, that could be in the form of a mini-table encompassing multiple games. Our heads are starting to hurt.

And all this for a potential elimination in the qualifiers.