Southampton’s 11-Game Unbeaten Run: Are Saints Genuine Promotion Contenders? | OneFootball

An 11-game unbeaten run has reignited Southampton’s playoff hopes. Yet despite their resurgence, the Saints have not occupied a top-six place since gameweek one — leaving their promotion credentials still open to question.

Since January 21st, the South Coast outfit has been in its best form of the season, despite losing Championship-proven players like Adam Armstrong and Ronnie Edwards in the winter transfer window. So, has this resurgence in form improved their case of contending for promotion?

What’s Actually Improved?

This period marked the birth of Southampton’s transition to a four-back system. Under Tonda Eckert, the Saints often shifted into an in-possession defensive four anyway, but what’s actually changed in the midfield and attack?

Switching to a pivot in the midfield has provided a foundation, but adding a central 10 (rather than two wide ones) has provided Southampton with a triangle in the midfield they’ve lacked all season. With the makeshift wide No. 10s, one would often have to drop deeper, losing their effect up the field.

Now, Ireland international Finn Azaz is consistently finding space in front of the midfielders. He can drop to provide support during an opposition press. As the Saints progress, he will operate behind the striker, where he’s most effective in dictating play in the final third. He comfortably operates among the highest in terms of playmaking, finding himself in the 97th percentile for key passes and the 60th percentile for progressive passes.

Finn Azaz (25/26) stats by DataMB.

Eckert has also transitioned to having two standard wingers.

Southampton’s previous 3-4-3 press often left their front line outnumbered against back fours. Now, in the 4-2-3-1, the 10 will push up next to the striker and form a pair that can target the centre halves. The wingers can drop back with the two midfielders, forming a midfield four, or push high to track full-backs.

Off the ball, they adopt a mid-block during sustained opposition possession. The Saints keep a high defensive line but opt for a more compact shape. The forwards will trigger a more intense press at the halfway line. When the opponents are forced back, each of the three units will push forward to close the space.

Southampton’s compact 4-4-2 midblock

While Ross Stewart is more than capable, he is restricted due to his proneness to injury; managing his minutes is necessary. When the Scotsman didn’t feature this season, the Saints lacked a direct outlet. Now, with Cyle Larin, Eckert can switch profiles without losing a number nine who can receive with his back to goal.

His hold-up play is regularly utilised, especially in moments where Peretz is forced to play long. If the likes of Cameron Archer or former striker Adam Armstrong were playing, Saints would be forced to chase second balls. But Larin’s stockier build means more physical competition for opposing defenders.

Southampton have consistently tweaked under Tonda Eckert, as the 32-year-old German continues to learn during his first full-time gig. From 21st in the table to surging up to 7th, his effect has been evident.

Form Against The Top 6…

In the past eleven outings, the Saints haven’t faced a single side operating in the top six. Across the entire season, they’ve only beaten one side that finds themselves there: Wrexham.

The likes of Millwall and Middlesbrough were able to constrict the Saints to draws at St Mary’s, alongside defeating them on home turf. Only 5th-placed Hull City have beaten Southampton in both fixtures — another indicator of the Saints’ struggles against the top half of the table.

Sparking their unbeaten run was a 1-0 victory over Sheffield United, and since then, they’ve accumulated 21 points in their last nine league fixtures. But this week’s clash against Coventry will be their biggest test so far. Frank Lampard’s men saw out a draw in the reverse fixture and will be hoping to replicate the likes of Middlesbrough in defeating them at home.

Southampton’s current form against the top six proves exactly why they haven’t been able to break through yet. If they’re able to recuperate after the scrappy point against West Brom and perform to the higher levels they’ve shown previously, it could be a true turning point in their promotion push.

Coventry have won six of their last six, averaging more than two goals per game during that run. They also haven’t lost at home since December, when they were beaten by fellow contenders Ipswich. Southampton, therefore, have their work cut out. But if they are truly eyeing promotion, it is an opportunity they must seize.

It’s been an underwhelming campaign thus far, where Southampton have consistently failed to deliver in the biggest games. Tonda Eckert has regrouped his men into a far more competitive team, but not one that’s currently ready to push further.

There hasn’t been much Eckert could’ve done more. Inheriting a squad that suffered humiliation last season — one that lacked any sort of confidence this season — and being able to transform them in the space of months is nothing short of impressive. Is it expected with the quality of players? Yes, but individual quality means nothing if there’s a lack of cohesion and belief in the style of play.

If promotion is truly in their sights, they must begin to deliver in decisive moments and remain consistent amid their hunt for sixth, especially if Wrexham continue to drop points later down the road.

The margins will be minimal, and every dropped point could prove costly in a race where consistency is everything. If Southampton truly want to keep promotion alive, they must start treating every match as one that defines their season.