Spurs v Aston Villa: Close game expected so take a chance on this 5/1 shots treble | OneFootball

English Premier League

Joe is backing the home wingers to get their shots off

Tottenham and Aston Villa return to Premier League action in the early Sunday kick-off and with both teams demonstrating winning form last time out it's a tough match to call, but Joe Dyer thinks he has found betting angles in the shots markets...

Spurs v Aston VillaSunday October 19, 14:00

Spurs on the up but real test begins now

Spurs resume top-flight action in third place in the Premier League. That's promising but, in truth, it's been a gentle start to the campaign for Thomas Frank's men with games against two promoted teams, a West Ham in crisis and only one side good enough to qualify for Europe (although, yes, that was Manchester City and they were beaten). After this game, October brings a trip to Everton in between cup fixtures at Monaco and Newcastle, before a run if Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in the league in November.

It feels like we will be able to judge Tottenham properly once November is done.

Villa on the rise

And this is the sort of test Tottenham will need to pass if they are to chisel out a reputation as a genuine top four contender (or better, they are not total write-offs at 40/1 in the title betting). After a shaky start to the season Villa arrive in north London on a four game winning streak. That run takes in a pair of Europa League wins without conceding as well home defeats of Fulham and Burnley. A winnable run, yes, but we cannot criticise a team when they do what is expected!

Villa will again be without Youri Tielemans and there are minor doubts over Ollie Watkins' participation.

Spurs' terrible home form makes Match Odds one to swerve

Spurs are the even money favourites to win this early Sunday KO. Villa and the draw can both be backed at 2/1.

To my eye those Tottenham odds look short. While they have won four of seven in the league this season, Spurs' home form does not point to a home win. There is a shocking Opta stat that anyone looking to back Tottenham needs to read - the Lilywhites have won just three of their last 17 home games in the Premier League. That sample period begins with defeat for Ange Postecoglou's Spurs against Ipswich in November 2024 and ends with their final outing, a 1-1 draw with Wolves that was only secured by an injury time equaliser from Palhinha.

Given that record I couldn't back Tottenahm against a Villa side that looks to be coming into form and yet you'd want to oppose them at bigger odds than 2/1.

Goals betting on a knife-edge

Two of the league's best defences meet here, Spurs have the second best defence in the league judged on goals conceded and Villa the seventh. Despite this, overs can be backed at odds-on at 8/11 while unders is evens. On value, stats and likely game state I'm tempted by the unders and can even make a case for no in the both teams to score betting at 6/5. This does, however, look a match where no result would really be a surprise and for a bet I think it's better to look elsewhere.

Two home and one away player backed in shots on target treble

Wilson Odobert enjoyed his best game in a Spurs shirt at Leeds last time out. While Mohammed Kudus owns the right side for Spurs, no one player can claim to be first choice on the left but Odobert surely did enough at Elland Road to earn another start there.

Provided he makes the starting XI I feel we should back him for some sort of attacking output. The Frenchman returns from a super successful international break with the under-21 side, scoring four times in two matches. If he starts - a small to medium-sized if admittedly - I think he could offer some value in various player prop markets. For a player with an eye for goal it doesn't feel a stretch to back him at 11/10 for a shot on target. At a similar price, we can back Kudus - so irresistible against Leeds - at evens.

For Villa, Donyell Mallen looks to have secured a first team spot for a few fixtures at least after his two goal outing against Burnley last time in the Premier League. He followed that strong showing with a goal against Finland on international duty and should arrive at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in confident mood. The Villa attacker, who may play upfront if Watkins doesn't make the starting lineup or on the right if he does, is 8/11 for a shot on target.

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Back Odobert and Kudus to each have a shot on target @ 15/8

Back Odobert, Kudus and Malen to each have a shot on target @ 5/1