Spurs v Aston Villa: Value lies with the visitors in Third Round clash | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Spurs look set for more misery in Saturday's FA Cup fixture

Tottenham Hotspur are nearing meltdown and the upwardly mobile visitors look worth an investment in Saturday's early evening FA Cup  KO

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Spurs v Aston VillaSaturday January 10, 17:45 Live on BBC One

Spurs slip again to leave Frank under immense pressure

Tottenham stumbled again in midweek as their mediocre season took another turn for the worse. Having held an early 1-0 lead at Bournemouth on Wednesday night, the Lilywhites went into the break 2-1 down only to equalise through a stunning bicycle kick from Joao Palhinha with just 12 minutes left of the game. But in keeping with what has been a miserable campaign so far they saw the Man City bound Antoine Semenyo smash in a 95th minute winner in his final fixture for Bournemouth to eventually lose the game 3-2. Spurs sit 14th in the table and Thomas Frank is under huge pressure, the 2/1 second favourite to be the seventh manager sacked in the Premier League this season.

Can the FA Cup give them some joy in a depressing season? Looking at Thomas Frank's record at Brentford it seems unlikely - the Dane's Bees teams have exited the Cup at the third round in each of the last four seasons and have never come close to going deep.

For Spurs, Mohammed Kudus misses the game with a muscle injury that will stop him from playing for the next four months.

Villa title bid flounders but campaign is still hugely positive

The festive period hasn't been bad for Villa but the 4-1 defeat at Arsenal really derailed their title bid and that has been followed up by a win and a draw. They go into FA Cup weekend six points behind Arsenal in the battle for the Premier League - and out to 28/1 to win the title - and it looks like a Champions League spot is the limit of the Midlands club's ambitions.

The top four is where Spurs aspire to be of course but right now it is clear that Villa are in the ascendant. Villa have won almost double Spurs' league wins this season (13 v 7) and remain in the hunt to succeed Saturday's hosts as Europa League champions. By most measures they are the better side right now. The only question mark is around club priorities and Unai Emery's priorities this season.

In the League Cup third round clash against Brentford back in September Emery fielded a mix of starters and squad players and it seems likely he will do so again.

Take a chance on the outsiders

The match odds is nearly evenly split here with Spurs the marginal favourites to emerge victorious after 90 minutes. As ever, team selection will be crucial here, but should both line up with a competitive first XI  - and it's plausible both clubs will entertain hopes of lifting the cup this year - then I would have to favour the visitors. Villa have won the last three clashes between the two sides, beating Spurs 2-1 in north London earlier this season and by the same scoreline in the fourth round of this competition last year. Spurs' home record is famously awful and with winning memories fresh in the mind against Saturday's opponents it does not take a huge leap to envision Villa making it four defeats of Spurs on the spin.

Certainly at the prices the 7/5 is tempting whether as a single, part of a third round ACCA or a bet builder in this game. It will not take much for the crowd to get on the home team's backs so unless Tottenham are impeccable from start to finish Villa should be well in the match.

Goals look likely

The previous game between the two finished 2-1 as did last year's FA Cup fourth round clash. With the potential for team changes - think Kevin Danso and Ben Davies at the back for the home side - I fancy the overs to land.

Mixing up the match odds and over-under verdicts you can back Villa win & Over 2.5 goals at 3/1 or play it safer with Villa-Draw on the double chance & Over 2.5 at 7/4. The latter covers any Villa win featuring three goals or more in the match or all draws from 2-2 up.

Player bets tricky to call

Given the likelihood for team changes it's tough to make a call on player bets. The Spurs injury list in attacking positions is pretty long and Frank does not have many options there. Richarlison came off the bench in the week so may start and I expect Mathys Tel to continue his first team run. The young French attacker was bright against Brentford and made a strong case to start on the left ahead of Randal Kolo Muani.

Tel takes corners and free kicks and has an eye for goal too. From limited starts this season he has three Premier League goals. In a team that is suffering from poor form and fan revolt he keeps his head up, showing admirable character. At 8/5 to score or assist he may be worth an investment if he starts - and remember that Safe Sub applies in this market. I would wait for team news before placing any bets, however.

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