Sunday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets include a 12/1 play in Newcastle vs Forest | OneFootball

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Aston Villa vs Burnley

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

As crazy as it sounds, the pressure was mounting on Unai Emery after his side started the season without a win across their opening six games in all competitions.

In the Premier League, Aston Villa didn't score a goal until Matty Cash's deflected strike from range found the net 67 minutes into their trip to the Stadium of Light on MD5.

It feels like the Villans have turned a corner now though. Since being held to a draw against the 10-men of Sunderland, Villa have won three on the spin. They came from behind to beat Fulham in the league and that victory was sandwiched in between Europa League wins over Bologna and Feyenoord.

They welcome Burnley to Villa Park on Sunday and although Scott Parker's side have only taken four points from their opening six games, I don't think they have been as bad as the results suggest.

The 3-0 defeat at Tottenham in their opening game felt harsh as Spurs gave them a lesson in finishing. The Clarets have since beaten Sunderland and drawn with Nottingham Forest but that is only half of the story.

They lost at Old Trafford and at home to Liverpool but both by one goal margins, both of the match winning goals came deep into injury time, oh, and both goals were penalties. They also finished the game against Liverpool with 10-men.

The 5-1 thumping at the Etihad in their last outing doesn't look good but again there's some caveats. They were level at half time, Maxime Esteve scored two own goals and Erling Haaland scored twice in stoppage time.

All things considered, I think Burnley could make life difficult for Villa on Sunday. As far as the betting is concerned, I am going to leave this one.

Everton vs Crytal Palace - Back Richards card at 5/1

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

The rare opportunity to punt on Everton cannot be wasted.

With no European responsibilities for the Toffee's, I have had to watch Jack Grealish drawing heaps of fouls and cards without being able to do a thing about it.

In five league starts under David Moyes, Grealish has drawn 21 fouls and an average 3.7 per game. He has also drawn cards from his direct opponents on three occasions.

A slight concern is each of these cards have come when the opponents play with a back four and Palace are expected to field a back five which is something to consider. That said, Grealish have only played against one side who played with a five and there was only one card that afternoon.

Daniel Munoz is expected to start for the Crystal Palace at right wing back and he has a good record for cards and fouls but I have been suckered in by the bigger price of Chris Richards who is expected to play at RCB.

Richards is yet to pick up a card this campaign and only averages 0.3 fouls a game but this angle is all about his direct opponent.

Across the last two seasons in the top flight, Richards has picked up 7Y and 1R cards which is a cards per 90 average of 0.18 which does actually make the quotes of 5/1 a little too big. Grealish or no Grealish.

Newcastle vs Forest - Back Thiaw to score at 12/1

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Ange Postecoglou loves defensive high lines but hates defending set pieces.

He heads to St James' Park on the hunt for his first Nottingham Forest win six games into his tenure but more importantly, seven of the 13 goals his side have conceded have come from set pieces.

Two of Midtjylland's central defenders scored from dead ball situations on Thursday, Sunderland's Omar Alderete netted from a set piece in Forest's last league outing and Swansea's Cameron Burgess scored twice from corners in the League Cup.

The only logical thing to do on Sunday is head to the anytime goalscorer market and back Newcastle's bigger priced set piece threats.

There is a strong chance the Thiaw, Burn and Botman all start as has been the case for Newcastle's last two games against Arsenal and Union Saint-Gilloise.

Newcastle have scored three times from set pieces this season and 12 times from them last term.

Wolves vs Brighton

Sunday, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Basement boys Wolves prop up the division with their solitary point. It came at Spurs in their last outing where they were desperately unlucky not to come away from North London with all three points as they won the xG battle and conceded a 94th minute equaliser.

That said, it is slightly alarming to see they are without a win heading into October as they have played Leeds and Everton at home.

Opponents Brighton have made a comparatively better start to the season taking eight points from six games (W2 D2 L2).

Brighton are unbeaten in the top flight at home but have struggled on their travels losing at Everton and Bournemouth. They were also trailing at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea were very much in control of that clash before Trevoh Chalobah was sent off just after half time.

The Seagulls went on to score twice in stoppage time to pick up their first league away win of the campaign.

I think I'll swerve this one from a betting point of view.

Brentford vs Man City - Back Collins card at 5/1

Sunday, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

Nathan Collins has committed at least one foul in each of his six Premier League appearances this season, and five across his last two appearances.

Betfair have 1+ foul at 1/4 which is obviously too short but the Sportsbook has the industry best price for Collins to be carded at 5/1.

Brentford's centre back has notched up three cards in twice as many league appearances this term, which includes two in his last two.

Collins has also been playing on the right side of central defence in a back four. This is a bonus because it means he might get dragged out to deal with Jeremy Doku and Manchester City's winger is in fine card drawing form this season.

Doku has drawn cards from opposition right backs in three of four league appearances this term. Michael Kayode, Brentford's right backs, price for a card painfully short and given Collins recent record, it is worth taking the latter.

It is worth noting, opponents RCB's have picked up cards in half of City's league games this term.