Supercomputer predicts Premier League top 5 after Man City beat Aston Villa | OneFootball

Supercomputer predicts Premier League top 5 after Man City beat Aston Villa | OneFootball

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·23 April 2025

Supercomputer predicts Premier League top 5 after Man City beat Aston Villa

Article image:Supercomputer predicts Premier League top 5 after Man City beat Aston Villa

With England having secured five qualification spots for next year's Champions League, the race to compete at Europe's top table is fierce.

The Premier League title and relegation races are all but over, with the battle for a Champions League berth next season all that remains to entice neutrals. By virtue of their practically unassailable lead at the summit, Liverpool are guaranteed to feature in Europe's premier competition next term, while second-placed Arsenal will join them bar an inconceivable implosion.


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But things are much tighter below the Premier League's top two. Manchester City's last-gasp victory over top five rivals Aston Villa on Tuesday evening has provided another twist, with plenty more narrative shifts likely to come in the closing weeks of the season.

With that in mind, here's who the esteemed Opta supercomputer believes will qualify for the Champions League.

Article image:Supercomputer predicts Premier League top 5 after Man City beat Aston Villa

Newcastle should sneak into the top five / James Gill - Danehouse/GettyImages

Removing Liverpool and Arsenal from the equation leaves five teams in the hunt for Champions League qualification. After Matheus Nunes' crucial winner in stoppage-time midweek, Man City are the side in the strongest position to secure a top five finish.

Pep Guardiola, who has never failed to qualify for the Champions League as a manager, has witnessed a mini resurgence from his outfit in recent weeks and the Cityzens have climbed into third as a result. They are only behind Wolverhampton Wanderers in the form table - yes, somehow Wolves have won their last five matches - and are given a 95.52% chance of finishing in the Champions League spots.

City's relatively straightforward fixture list offers them hope of a perfect finish during their final four matches, while fellow top five hopefuls Nottingham Forest have a similarly kind set of matches to come. Bar a final day battle with Chelsea, the Midlands side are facing teams with nothing to play for during their remaining fixtures and are given an 81.39% chance of achieving Champions League qualification as a result.

Forest's much-needed victory away at Tottenham Hotspur on Monday night lifted them above Newcastle United in the standings and the Magpies are still expected to make the top five despite last weekend's collapse at Villa Park. Their chances are not as strong now but Villa's midweek defeat at the Etihad Stadium has strengthened their hand. They have a 77.5% chance of returning to Europe's elite competition.

Newcastle still have to play Chelsea before the end of the season in one of several tricky fixtures for Enzo Maresca's side. The Blues, who are in extremely patchy form, have clashes with Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H) and Forest (A) in their final five and that fixture list may prove a challenge too great for them. They have just a 29.06% chance of achieving a top five finish after a torrid second half of the campaign.

Villa are the only other team with any realistic chance of finishing fifth or higher - although Bournemouth are given a 0.04% chance of upsetting the odds. Unai Emery's side have had the unenviable task of juggling European football while attempting to secure a return to the Champions League, and while they're not out of the running by any means, they have just a 16.5% chance of making the top five after a bruising defeat in Manchester on Tuesday.

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