Supercoppa Italiana preview: Juventus vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·2 January 2025

Supercoppa Italiana preview: Juventus vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan are on the hunt for their first trophy of the season, and the new head coach Sergio Conceicao will make his debut in the Supercoppa Italiana against Juventus.

It has been a chaotic last few days for Milan, who made the decision to sack Paulo Fonseca after just 24 games in charge following a 1-1 defeat to Roma. Just a few hours later, Conceicao was named as his replacement, signing a deal until 2026.

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Thus, he will take charge of his first game not at San Siro or even in Italy, but in Saudi Arabia in the semi-final of the Supercoppa against Juve. In his pre-match press conference he certainly seemed up for the challenge, albeit battling a fever himself.

Game date: Friday, January 3 Kick-off time: 20:00 (CET) Venue: Al-Awwal Park Referee: Andrea Colombo (VAR: Paterna)

Team news

As mentioned, it has been all change at Milan in the past few days and that means they are heading into the new year with a new coach, giving every player in the squad a clean slate, in theory.

The issue is that there are a number of injury worries for Conceicao to contend with, mainly in the attacking department. Rafael Leao is not expected to be fit enough to start the semi-final and there are doubts about if he will even be on the bench.

Samuel Chukwueze and Noah Okafor have both not made the trip with the rest of the squad as they recover from quite serious muscle issues. On Wednesday, Filippo Terracciano worked separately and it is possible that there could be changes in midfield as a result.

The biggest question mark concerns Christian Pulisic, who returned to full training with the rest of the squad but it remains to be seen whether he will be risked from minute one. If he were not available, it could lead to a change in formation, with two strikers being used.

The latest reports are suggesting that the new boss will name a back four of Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia, Malick Thiaw and Theo Hernandez in front of the goalkeeper Mike Maignan.

One big development could be in midfield because at present it seems as though Ismael Bennacer could come into a three, with Youssouf Fofana in an anchoring role and Tijjani Reijnders the other mezzala.

Completing the 4-3-3 will be a front three of Pulisic, Alvaro Morata and Alex Jimenez. Given the amount of injuries in the side, there will not be much in the way of attacking firepower on the bench, with Futuro players drafted in to try fill the numbers a bit.

Predicted Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo; Bennacer, Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Morata, Jimenez.

The opponents

Like Milan, Juventus also began a new era under a new coach over the summer, hiring Thiago Motta from Bologna after his contract expired. He had done a brilliant job with the Rossoblu, guiding them into the Champions League before departing for pastures new.

As per Transfermarkt, Juve decided to back their new coach with a summer spending spree to the tune of €168m. They spent over €50m on each of Teun Koopmeiners and Douglas Luiz, though the latter did come on an exchange deal.

Khephren Thuram joined from OGC Nice for €20.6m to complete the midfield overhaul, while Juan Cabal joined from Verona, Nico Gonzalez came from Fiorentina on an initial loan and Pierre Kalulu joined from Milan on a loan with option.

One of the sub-plots to this game is Francisco Conceicao being with the Bianconeri, who is of course the son of the new Milan manager. He arrived on a loan deal from Porto.

Juventus were also able to raise around €100m in player sales, with Matias Soule going to Roma, Dean Huijsen to Bournemouth plus Samuel Ising-Junior and Enzo Barrenchea to Aston Villa.

Moose Kean headed to Fiorentina, Federico Chiesa made the rather surprising switch to Liverpool and Kaio Jorge returned to Brazil to join Cruzeiro.

In terms of league results so far, it has been a quite simply bizarre season for Motta’s men. They are unbeaten but have drawn 11 and won only seven games, with just one victory in their last six.

The stand-out result is the 4-4 draw against Inter at San Siro back at the end of October, and they most recent result was a 2-2 home draw with Fiorentina.

In the Champions League, the Old Lady find themselves in 14th after six games with three wins, two draws and one defeat. They beat Manchester City 2-0 at home in the last round, and they sit directly below Atalanta and Milan in the table.

Juventus are without two players who might be their starting centre-back pairing but for their injuries. Both Gleison Bremer and the summer signing Cabal sustained cruciate ligament issues, meaning they could be done for the season.

The latest reports are suggesting that Motta will field a 4-2-3-1 with Di Gregorio in goal, a back four of Savona, Gatti, Kalulu and Cambiaso, then a midfield double pivot of Locatelli and Thuram.

The attack will then be composed of Conceicao Jr., Koopmeiners in the attacking midfielder role, Yildiz on the left and Vlahovic leading the line.

Predicted Juventus XI (4-2-3-1): Di Gregorio; Savona, Gatti, Kalulu, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Conceicao, Koopmeiners, Yildiz; Vlahovic.

Head to head

Milan have played Juventus 226 times in their almost 125-year history, making them the team that they have faced the most. The record reads as follows: 65 wins, 73 draws and 88 defeats.

Last season the Bianconeri took four points from the Rossoneri, with a 0-0 draw at the Allianz Stadium preceded by a 0-1 scoreline at San Siro, which came via a deflected Manuel Locatelli shot after Malick Thiaw’s red card.

That was their first victory over Milan since January 2021, and the Diavolo did the double over them (a 2-0 win at home and a 1-0 win away) in the 2022-23 campaign.

Earlier this season, an injury-hit Juve side were able to escape with a draw as the two teams played out a very dull and drab 0-0 draw at the Meazza.

Key facts and stats

➤ Juventus have won just two of their last 12 games against Milan in all competitions (D6 L4), after having won all nine of their previous matches.

➤ Just four goals have been scored in the last six matches between Juventus and Milan in all competitions and in particular the two most recent ones ended 0-0; in their history since 1929/30 these two teams have never more consecutive goalless draws.

➤ There have been three previous meetings between Juventus and Milan in the Italian Super Cup: the Bianconeri won the most recent one (1-0 in 2019), after the first two matches ended on penalties (one win each).

➤ Juventus are the team that have won the Italian Super Cup the most times: nine, in 17 participations; on the other hand, Milan has lifted the trophy on seven of the 12 occasions in which they has played in the final of the competition.

➤ Milan have lost without scoring in their last two Italian Super Cup matches (0-1 against Juventus in 2019 and 0-3 against Inter in 2023), after having scored at least one goal in all 10 previous matches, collecting five wins, three draws and two defeats in the process.

➤ Juventus have lost only one of their last 31 games in all competitions (W13 D17), in October against Stuttgart in the Champions League; in particular, this season, no team in ‘top five’ European Leagues have lost fewer times than the Bianconeri (also one for Liverpool).

Ones to watch

For Milan, having Pulisic back in the starting line-up will be crucial. His eight goals and five assists across all competitions makes him the leader in terms of contributions, with Reijnders (nine goals, two assists) closely behind.

Morata would love to get a goal against his former club, but it is perhaps Theo Hernandez who will be most interesting to follow, to see how he reacts to the new coach after a rut of form.

Juve’s danger man remains Vlahovic, who has 12 goals and two assists this season. However, the man to his left – Kenan Yildiz – is also having a brilliant campaign so far with eight goal contributions.

There is a family storyline with Francisco Conceicao facing his father’s new team, then of course Kalulu will come up against his parent club, who he left in the summer for a rival and has since done well.

Prediction

It has been nearly a decade since that night in 2016, and we are more hoping for a repeat rather than expecting it. What we do expect though is a lot of grit and fight in Conceicao’s debut, and there is still a trophy on the line (or the chance to get one) even if this result will far from define his tenure.

Juventus 1-1 AC Milan (Milan win on penalties)