The amount of points Sunderland AFC will realistically need to get promotion | OneFootball

The Black Cats have surprised many by being early table-toppers, but now in a genuine promotion battle, what do they have to do to get over the line?

To the surprise of many, Sunderland AFC have found themselves amid a very real promotion fight.

Top of the table going into the November internationals, just how long must this form continue if they are to realistically realise their Premier League dream?

Following the league's rebranding in 2004, Sunderland have been promoted from the division twice, each time as champions.

Becoming the first team ever to lift a 'Championship' title in 2004-05 (94 points), as well as repeating the feat two years later (88 points), Sunderland were perhaps the first 'yo-yo team' of the modern era.

Now in its 21st season, we have substantial data regarding exactly how many points it takes to achieve automatic promotion in the EFL Championship.

Sunderland's current points-per-game will get them promoted

The Wearside club have been a joy to watch this season. Be it the mercurial teenage talents of Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg, on the fact that they are, for now at least, the top scorers in the division.

Their impressive 31 points accrued from 15 games gives the Black Cats a PPG of 2.07, insinuating that at their current rate they should be looking to achieve a final points tally of around 95.

To put this into context, no team has ever failed to achieve automatic promotion with this figure. In fact, until May this year, no team had accumulated 90 points and not reached the top-flight.

The ridiculous promotion race of 2023-24 raised the bar in many ways. Ipswich Town became the team with the highest ever points total without finishing top, with 96 points.

In an infinitely more cruel circumstance, playoff-losers Leeds United became the only team to break the 90 point barrier and not reach the Premier League. That isn't to say Southampton were undeserving of their promotion, as their 87 points would have seen them in the top-two in 17 of the last 20 seasons.

The amount of points Sunderland will need to achieve promotion

At risk of stating the obvious, to achieve automatic promotion you must finish higher than your third-place competitor. Tallying up every season since 2004-05, the average points total of a team finishing in third place is just 83, while the lowest ever recorded was 75 (Hull City, 2007/08). Meaning that, while highly unlikely, history dictates that the Black Cats could need as little as 44 points from their remaining 31 games to finish second.

However, as this season's promotion race is shaping up to be as competitive as last years, a much safer and realistic target for Mackems to aim for is 88 points. This is the overall average points tally of a team finishing in second place, and a figure that would only see you in third place thrice in the Championship's history.

To achieve this target, Sunderland would need to amass a further 57 points from a possible 93. This means that the Black Cats could, in theory, lose a whopping twelve more matches and still expect to reach the promised-land.

It may be relieving for those in the Stadium of Light to know that the club can afford some foibles, as their relatively inexperienced squad, statistically the youngest in the league, may struggle to keep up quite this level of form for the entirety of a grueling EFL season.

Three draws on the bounce have seen Sheffield United meet them level on points, while pre-season favourites Leeds United finally looking worthy of that moniker. Sunderland will hope that a well-deserved break can see them back to winning ways, as the north-east side continue to strive for that magic number.