The Beto Conundrum | OneFootball

Evertonians are no strangers to misfiring or underperforming centre-forwards.

Not since the days of Romelu Lukaku have Everton had a truly outstanding striker.

Although, in fairness, Lukaku is probably Everton’s only truly outstanding striker in the Premier League era.

Duncan Ferguson is, of course, a club legend. Wayne Rooney was an incredible talent, but it feels too limiting to call him just a striker — Rooney was everywhere in his first two seasons in the first team before his move to Manchester United and, even when he returned, he spent as much time in midfield as up front (and still managed to get into double figures for goals, and should really have been kept on longer by Marcel Brands, with the Dutchman far too determined to make his own stamp on the club in 2018).

Yakubu had a brilliant first season, but was subsequently derailed by injuries. It’s a similar story for Andy Johnson, who faded after a great first campaign in the mid-2000s.

Richarlison will forever be a fan favourite, but was at his best operating from wide. Dominic Calvert-Lewin does not get the praise this writer feels he deserves but, while his hold-up play and aerial ability is outstanding, he is clearly not a top class striker.

Suffice to say, world-class forwards don’t just grow on trees. You can’t just replace a 25-goal-per-season striker like Lukaku easily. And that was the best part of nine years ago, anyway. A club like Everton does not have the funds to go and spend the £60M+ that is required to bring in such players, of whom there are few and far between these days anyway.

However, that doesn’t mean it is any less frustrating when strikers miss chances, or fail to get into positions to make the most of opportunities.

This week, Brentford owner Matthew Benham had some interesting things to say about one of Everton’s current crop of forwards.

Referring to a 1-1 draw between Brentford and Everton last season, Benham spoke about some glaring opportunities missed by Beto in that game.

At that stage, Beto was well and truly in form. With Calvert-Lewin out injured, Beto was flourishing under David Moyes. He had scored five goals in the space of four league appearances heading to the Gtech Community Stadium for a midweek match.

Yet when played in for several one-v-ones, Beto fluffed his lines. Ultimately, Everton fought back to claim a point, but there was definitely a question as to what could have been had Beto shown the composure he had found in previous outings.

Benham, though, had a different view.

Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Benham said: “When we played Everton at our place last year, Beto missed three one-on-ones.

“Any decent data model worth its salt would give Beto an upgrade. That is the case for any player who happens to make three one-on-ones in a single game, even if they happen to miss them.

“Typically for a one-on-one, the odds are 50/50 that you will score. You might say he's less efficient but the fact he is getting the positions for the shot is more important to us.”

Those Beto chances against Brentford were worth 0.76 expected goals, so he did clearly underperform, but does Benham have a point?

Everton’s strikers have not had enough reliable service this season, that is fair to say. It is also fair to say that they must take some responsibility for that.

Thierno Barry, for example, is still learning the ropes. He shows some real desire and intensity at times to be in the right position (see his goals v Aston Villa and Leeds United in January), yet at other times he has been far too slow to react, or has perhaps not put enough conviction into a finish.

Beto, on the flip side, does seem better at sniffing out opportunities — his goals against Brighton and Newcastle United were the kind of finishes that only come about because he was ready to spring and capitalise on mistakes.

Across his time at Everton, Beto has underperformed his xG by roughly six goals. That trend has continued this term, with Beto scoring 4 league goals from 6.45 xG. Barry, on the other hand, has netted 6 from 6.14 xG.

Barry, though, has played 1,615 minutes to Beto’s 1,055.

So, Barry is performing on-track to his xG, but Beto is getting more chances.

There could be a couple of reasons for that, of course.

We must factor in that Beto’s last two goals have come from high xG chances, with the goalkeeper stranded, the net gaping and the ball just yards out.

However, credit must go to Beto for sensing the opportunities to strike. He also seems to be getting more service than Barry. It is often the same players providing for them, so once again, Beto deserves some share of the credit there, too.

Barry is a developing striker and could easily finish his first Premier League season in double figures for goals, which by anyone’s yardstick would be a very solid return. He is part of Everton’s future.

Beto’s time at the club is probably coming to an end, but he has demonstrated a handy knack of knowing where to be and, in the last couple of matches, he has dragged his all-round levels up, too.

One can’t help but think Benham has a point — strikers who have the ability to regularly get themselves in a position to be presented with chances are a useful commodity. That being said, it is a bit hard not to roll your eyes when you’re then told a centre-forward should also be “upgraded” despite missing several gilt-edged chances in one game.

As ever, there needs to be a balance between leaning too heavily on data and too heavily on the proverbial eye test.

Beto’s all-round game is too often found wanting, especially for a 28-year-old, even if there can be no doubt over his desire or commitment to the cause. But as Everton head into the run-in, Moyes definitely seems ready to embrace the possibility of his senior striker leading the line.

If Beto continues to sniff out chances, and just ups his finishing slightly, then perhaps he still has a key role to play after all.

Reader Comments (18)

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Oh dear... Stats Alert!

“Any decent data model worth its salt would give Beto an upgrade. That is the case for any player who happens to make three one-on-ones in a single game, even if they happen to miss them."

Please forgive my ignorance but what does 'an upgrade' mean in this case? His xG is calculated (somehow) during each game, and presumably is not adjusted with hindsight. Insofar as it constitutes 'data', it is surely fixed and not amenable to 'an upgrade'.

Or is this bloke critiquing the xG data model itself because each one-on-one should carry an xG of 0.50 (ie, 50/50 chance of scoring, as it says above) so his comnbined xG should be 1.50 and not 0.76?

Or are we just meant to feel better than we do about the Gangling Galoot for the sole reason that he managed to miss three one-on-ones in the same game?

But if your 'data model' says that one-on-ones on average have a probability of 25% and not 50%, as these numbers suggest, then Beto is actually seeing an upgrade – albeit by a minuscule 0.01 xG.

What a load of bollocks.

Jay Harris 4 Posted 13/03/2026 at 17:05:07

I think our eyes tell us that neither Beto nor Barry are good enough for an Everton team.

Think Jamie Vardy at his best. That is the standard we should be aiming for — not £25M no-hopers.

John Collins 6 Posted 13/03/2026 at 18:50:24

Too much interference with what is a simple game, Michael.

If VAR start doing corners next season, my appetite for watching football will decline further.

Nicolas Piñon 9 Posted 14/03/2026 at 04:24:53

The worst strikers in the premier League…

Everton that.

Derek Thomas 10 Posted 14/03/2026 at 07:24:53

Jay @ 4;

Leicester signed Vardy for £1M from non league Fleetwood. We paid buttons for Branthwaite, Calvert-Lewin and, last but not least, Mr 60 Grand himself.

And as you nearly say, price is no guarantee of standard.

2011 to 2026 even now £1M doesn't equate to £25M. Maybe we just have to have somebody in the right place at the right time to spot the gem hiding in the lower Leagues and back themselves to convince The 3 Amigos to sign him - which is easier said than done.

Stu Gre 11 Posted 14/03/2026 at 09:11:22

Isn't this basically criticising the Everton coaching? We are to believe that at Brentford Beto would get more goals because they would use the data to upgrade him.

That might sound ridiculous but isn't it what we see with clubs like Brentford? We keep asking how they unearth gems, but this is an insight into it. They use the data to get what they want and coach the other bits into them, then sell for a profit.

Tony Abrahams 14 Posted 14/03/2026 at 09:58:41

Quite possibly my favourite album, and definitely in my top three.

Top three? Just give us one genuine centre-forward, that'll do most of us!

John Keating 15 Posted 14/03/2026 at 11:03:49

Unfortunately, until --if -- we get a decent centre-forward, I think Beto is our best option.

Stu @11,

You've hit on something there we don't really talk about very much.

Supporting the team means inherently believing we have the best coaching professionals at Finch Farm and that they are doing the best job possible -- not just in traditional coaching but also in the application of data analytics and all these stats to enhance the individual training programmes for the players.

But I can see a flaw in this line of thought already... I suppose it means that, as requested by many of his devoted acolytes on here, we must also believe, trust in, and swear undying allegiance to our Supreme Leader, the Moyesiah.

Oh, bugger.

Sean McCarthy 18 Posted 14/03/2026 at 14:52:47

Oh please!!! Throw as much fancy stats at this as you want but I'll stick with what I see with my own two eyes. Beto is a useless lumbering excuse of a centre forward and Barry isn't really any better but (possibly) has youth on his side. If we go into next season with these two both still at the Club then the transfer committee need sacking!!!

Id loan out Barry somewhere (maybe to the championship and try and toughen him up and see what he's like when he comes back) and would personally give Beto a lift to the airport myself!!