The four-year curse: Why 2026 is a worry for Vasco’s history | OneFootball

The tumultuous start to the season for Vasco, sitting at the bottom of the Brazilian Championship with just one point in four games, not only brings apprehension for the current moment but also stirs up a historical discomfort. A review of Vasco's track record since their first relegation to Serie B reveals a curious and worrying fact: the dreaded "fourth-year curse."

The cold mathematics of the club's recent history indicate that since the fateful year of 2008, Vasco has never managed to stay in the top tier of national football for more than three consecutive seasons. Every fourth season that begins after a return, the club invariably suffered another relegation, creating a ghost that now haunts the year 2026.

+ Vasco is the 2nd Brazilian team with the best performance in a category in the last 10 years

The Vicious Cycle of Relegations and Returns

The pattern began right after the first relegation. Vasco fell in 2008, returned in 2009, and managed to stay in 2010, 2011, and 2012. In the fourth season of the cycle, in 2013, the team ended up being relegated again. The script was different in the next cycle: promotion in 2014, followed by an immediate new relegation in 2015.

The third sequence was even more painful. The club returned to the elite in 2016 and spent three consecutive seasons in Serie A (2017, 2018, and 2019). However, the grim pattern was confirmed again in 2020, when Vasco suffered its fourth relegation. The current scenario brings us to 2026: the team returned in 2022 and survived by the skin of their teeth in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The current year, 2026, represents exactly the fourth and fateful season of this latest cycle.

Pedrinho and Edmundo were in the 2008 squad – Photo: Cezar Loureiro / Agência O Globo

Breaking the Paradigm and the Weight of the Z4

With the team experiencing a severe defensive crisis and still without a defined coach, the historical alert sounds deafeningly at São Januário. The team's initial difficulty — failing to win even recent classics against Flamengo and Corinthians — strengthens the urgent need for a reaction to shatter this taboo and avoid a new tragic chapter.

To break the "curse," the board's planning needs to be swift. The forced mid-season break and the imminent hiring of a new coach (with names like Renato Gaúcho and Roger Machado on the table) are the first steps for Vasco to rewrite its own history and finally extend its stay in the first division.

The team lost to Santos and is at the bottom of the Brasileirão – Photo: Matheus Lima/Vasco.

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.