The harder you work the luckier you get? | OneFootball

A lot of debate about the Newcastle United players following the match on Sunday.

The game ending Brentford 3 Newcastle 1 and understandably, much frustration amongst the NUFC fanbase.

Everybody has their own theories about what went wrong.

Whether it was the Newcastle United players, Eddie Howe, or whatever, that could and should have done something different.

As well as of course at the same time having to remind us that there was another team on the pitch determined to try and win this match.

I wanted you to consider something different, another angle, as to why potentially Newcastle United were second best to Brentford.

These are the last seven Newcastle United matches and the distances covered in total by each team (all stats via BBC Sport):

Newcastle United players 111.01km and Brentford players 114.13km

Newcastle United players 116.85km and West Ham players 114.08km

Newcastle United players 114.50km and Fulham players 110.21km

Newcastle United players 115.16km and Brighton players 113.59km

Newcastle United players 109.45km and Forest players 106.43km

Newcastle United players 112.94km and Arsenal players 115.08km

Newcastle United players 113.23km and Bournemouth players 109.03km

As you can see, in five of the last seven Premier League matches (BBC Sport previously didn’t show these stats of total distances covered for each match), Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United players comfortably outrunning the opposition, collectively covering more distance.

In the two matches where Newcastle were easily second best with those distance stats, they were also very much second best in terms of how they played, deserving to lose against both Arsenal and Brentford.

In the five matches where Newcastle United were on top with the distance stats, Eddie Howe’s side won against both Fulham and Forest, got a great well earned point at Bournemouth, didn’t deserve to lose at Brighton where in the second half they were superior both physically with their workrate and in their play. As for the West Ham match, that was all a bit of a mess. The stats showed there was no lack of running from Howe’s team, they just made far too many mistakes and gifted possession time and again.

On Sunday against Brentford, I don’t think it was a case of players not trying, more a case of the opposition having more legs, as well as superior play, but are these two things inextricably linked?

At the time, I couldn’t believe how negative so many Newcastle United fans were with the goalless draw at Bournemouth. They are a very dangerous team with a great home record and at the time flying towards the top end of the Premier League, yet Newcastle restricted them to pretty much no clear chances in the entire match and could/should have came away with the perfect away win, when a clear penalty wasn’t given for a shirt pull on Woltemade.

For that Bournemouth match, where a hard working United side totally smothered a dangerous opposition away from home, Eddie Howe made a massive seven outfield changes to his team having had a tough Champions League clash with Barcelona in the midweek. Whilst Bournemouth had a free week of preparation.

These were the chances Eddie Howe made for that Bournemouth game:

IN:

Thiaw, Botman, Hall, Miley, Willock, Woltemade, Murphy

Trippier, Schar, Bruno, Joelinton, Barnes, Gordon, Elanga

On Sunday at Brentford, of the 14 players listed above who were in and out at the Bournemouth game, all of them were in the matchday squad apart from Anthony Gordon. Whilst Lewis Hall wasn’t able to be considered as a starter with Eddie Howe saying he has to take it easy with the talented young defender to try and prevent new injury issues.

However, maybe if a similar level of rotation had been employed at Brentford, after a Champions League midweek (win over Athletic Club) for NUFC and a free week for the home side, we could have seen a far more energetic Newcastle United team with extra legs, that could have produced a more positive performance and result?

Putting the yards in doesn’t guarantee winning games BUT it certainly increases the chances overall. The harder you (are able to?) work the luckier you get.