The Ingenious Theory Behind Barcelona’s Julian Alvarez Pursuit | OneFootball

The Summer 2026 Transfer Window is over. In over three months of drama, we’ve seen some huge-money deals. However, from the end of last season to the beginning of this one, there has been one saga dragging on and on.

Julian Alvarez to Barcelona.

From the end of May, when Barcelona submitted their opening offer of €100 million, to now, this saga has trudged on and on, becoming one of the most compelling chronicles of events in recent football history. The transfer has taken on a public angle previously unseen in transfer history, with Atleti, Barca, Alvarez, and even Real Madrid going public at some point (or numerous points) about the deal.

However, I have a theory that will change every aspect of how you view the saga from now on. If true, this would be a masterstroke of revenge from Barcelona, and a blockbuster twist you usually only see in the cinema.

I believe that the Julián Álvarez saga is, at least in large part, a ploy from FC Barcelona in order to fracture the relationship between Atlético Madrid and its star player. While this theory may sound outlandish at first, the more you think about it, the more plausible it becomes.

Today, I will be taking you through my theory, how it fits into the Julián Álvarez saga and Spanish football at large, what it means for both clubs, and my overall evidence for this theory,

When people think of Spanish football’s biggest rivalries, their minds are drawn automatically to El Clásico – Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Arguably the most intense rivalry in world football that almost never disappoints whenever the two face off. After that, most outsiders think of the Madrid derby, a massive rivalry in its own right; however, a third massive rivalry has been brewing in football for some time now. Atlético Madrid and Barcelona. Ever since 2013/14, when the three met six times, culminating in Atleti eliminating Barça from the Champions League and controversially winning La Liga, sagas for players like Antoine Griezmann and Joao Felix have further intensified the rivalry. Recently, ten meetings in two seasons since Hansi Flick’s arrival at the Camp Nou have escalated things to a whole new level. The Julián Álvarez saga could be enough to make this rivalry a permanent staple of the Spanish football calendar.

In the season gone by, Barca and Atleti faced off six times. Despite Barca winning four of those meetings, Atleti still ended up eliminating the Blaugrana from both the Copa del Rey and Champions League. Those two eliminations represent the clearest source of Barça’s competitive frustration with Atlético. Had Atlético not eliminated them from both competitions, Barcelona would at minimum have had a significantly clearer path to another trophy.

My theory is that, after the double elimination last season, Laporta has decided to hatch revenge by destabilizing the relationship between Atleti and their star player. I believe Barcelona never truly wanted Julian Alvarez for the #9 position, and this longtime transfer saga has been Laporta and Deco’s way of getting back at Atlético for last season and weakening their challenge to Barça in the future.

Now what evidence do I have that Barcelona didn’t want Alvarez anyway? Perhaps the best proof comes from the actual transfer offers sent. Believe it or not, Barcelona never followed up on their opening €100m offer back in May. Barcelona’s board saw exactly the same transfers we did. Yan Diomande, Elliot Anderson, Bradley Barcola, and Morgan Rogers each went for around €140m, but Barcelona never budged on their opening offer. If reports of Atleti’s €150m valuation were true, it would have been a fair valuation for someone of Alvarez’s reputation, despite his lack of output last season. If Barcelona truly wanted Alvarez, wouldn’t they have increased their offer over the span of three months at least a little? Barcelona made an offer they knew Atleti wouldn’t accept, and while they saw the market inflating around them, the offer remained.

This poese the question: Why would Barcelona make an offer they knew wouldn’t be accepted? Simple: it solved many issues of the saga. Barcelona needed a public way to establish interest, give Alvarez a reason to believe a move could happen, and put pressure on Atleti, all the while avoiding actually having their offer accepted. The €100m offer accomplished all four.

Think about it; Barcelona spent nearly €200 million this summer, a figure that beats their combined spend of the past three summers by over double. They may have had the budget to sign Alvarez after the Anthony Gordon deal, but not after spending €80 million to complete the Rodri and Adeyemi deals.

More evidence of my theory comes from the first two Barca matches of the season. Raphinha has been Barca’s #9, and from how the side’s been playing, it looks like that was the plan. Raphinha has fit into his new role seamlessly, providing killer runs beyond the defensive line, as well as relentless pressing from the front, forcing goalkeepers and defenders into either clearing the ball for a throw or giving it away inside the box. Raphinha’s new role as a 9 also means Lamine can stay on the right, gives interchangeability with other options, such as Gordon, Adeyemi, and Abdelkarim, and his partnership with Fermin Lopez’s unpredictability makes for nightmares for defenders. This seamless transition suggests that Raphinha’s switch to #9 was a planned tactical choice from Hansi Flick rather than an emergency option thrown together.

More evidence of Raphinha being the plan comes from new reports of Barcelona not having a backup option after Alvarez if the Argentine doesn’t come. The Brazilian, so far, has taken his new role in stride and could be just the striker Barca needs.

The next question one may have is how Laporta, who isn’t known to make moves like this, would know that it was going to work. Laporta knew that Barcelona didn’t need to convince Álvarez that Camp Nou was his dream destination. They already knew the attraction was there; after a clip shared seemingly millions of times on social media over this summer of a young Álvarez labeling himself a River Plate and Barça supporter, the Catalans knew they had someone who would love to join the club.

Another way Laporta knew that it would work is that he knows Atlético Madrid’s board. Laporta dealt with Atlético Madrid CEO Gil Marin all the way in his first spell as president in the 2000s, and current Atleti Sporting Director Mateu Alemany was Barcelona Sporting Director for the first two years of Laporta’s presidency. While the rest of the footballing world now knows how Atleti’s board operates, that being the desire of a nearly violent level to keep them away from direct rivals, chances are Laporta knew before this summer. Although, to be fair, any football fan who kept up with the Antoine Griezmann saga could have known this.

If Barcelona really were trying to destabilise the relationship, the events of the summer couldn’t have gone much better for them. The relationship between Julian Alvarez and Atlético Madrid has deteriorated to a point where Atleti was seriously considering letting him go to Arsenal. The fans have turned on the player; the Argentinian is missing training, getting booed by the fans in a sulky cameo against Villarreal, and overall, it’s looking grim for Alvarez in Madrid. If anything, Barcelona’s plan has actually worked too well, with Alvarez rejecting a move to Arsenal in favour of continuing to look for a Barca move.

While reports have come out recently that Alvarez is looking to remain at Atleti over joining Arsenal in hopes of coming to Barca in January, my advice to Alvarez is to be very wary of the operation. I see Barcelona pulling the rug from under Álvarez if the deal advances too far, and potentially leaving him in a situation where he thoroughly disrespected his employers for an opportunity he never had.

Maybe Barcelona genuinely wanted Julián Álvarez. Maybe the €100m offer was simply the best deal they were willing to make. Maybe Raphinha at striker really is an experiment that emerged from necessity. Maybe Álvarez will end up joining Barcelona in January. Maybe Barcelona could never have afforded Alvarez at all.

But if that isn’t the case, Barcelona may have pulled off one of the strangest and yet smartest transfer operations we’ve seen in years.

They never needed to sign Julián Álvarez.

They only needed Atlético Madrid to believe they wanted to.