The simple explanation behind Liverpool’s underperforming forward line | OneFootball

On Friday, Arne Slot considered the number of league goals Liverpool’s forwards have scored this season and said simply: “That is not enough.” If the message was conveyed privately to his players, they were swift to provide the right kind of answer. Hugo Ekitike scored inside five minutes against West Ham on Saturday. Cody Gakpo ended his own drought.

As no Liverpool attacker had found the net in their previous three Premier League matches, it was a step in the right direction. And yet Slot’s overall analysis probably still rings true to him: Liverpool, who spent £200m on strikers last summer, have too few goals from the front three. Certainly they have a lot fewer than last year.

After 27 league matches of last season, Liverpool’s six main forwards had 51 goals. Now that number is down to 26, little more than half. The first may represent more than could realistically be expected, the second fewer.

Some of the explanation lies in the breakdown of who has scored – or, this season, who has not.

2024-25 (first 27 league games only): Mohamed Salah 25, Luis Diaz 9, Gakpo 8, Diogo Jota 5, Darwin Nunez 4, Federico Chiesa 0.

2025-26: Ekitike 11, Gakpo 6, Salah 4, Chiesa 2, Alexander Isak 2, Rio Ngumoha 1.

There is a case for adding Florian Wirtz into the equation, given that he was the third major attack-minded signing last summer and that some of his minutes have come when playing on the wings, though the majority have come as a No 10. If so, the 2025-26 forwards tally goes up to 30.

It may be simplifying matters but the drop-off can be traced to two players: Salah and Isak. Even by the Egyptian’s standards, he was scoring at a remarkable rate in the first two-thirds of last season, averaging a goal every 96 minutes, allying them with 16 assists. His numbers had tailed off even before the end of a campaign that ended with him anointed PFA Player of the Year and Footballer of the Year. Now, however, Salah has his smallest return at the start of March in his time at Anfield. He has gone four months – albeit interrupted by a spell on the bench and the African Cup of Nations – without a Premier League goal.

open image in gallery

Mohamed Salah has failed to replicate his form from last season amid Liverpool's striker struggles (AP)

Then there is Isak. After Newcastle had played 27 top-flight games last season, the Swede had 19 goals in the division. At one every 105 minutes, he was almost in Salah territory. If some of Liverpool’s thinking was that, as Salah got older, Isak would assume the goalscoring mantle, his fragile fitness means he has not yet. A broken leg accounts for his absence now, incurred a fraction of a second after scoring just his second Premier League goal. They have come in 519 minutes. Salah, meanwhile, averages one every 429.

Each may be paying a penalty for Liverpool’s lack of spot kicks. Slot is aware it is a factor. Liverpool got nine, the joint most in the division, last year. So far this, they have been awarded two, the joint fewest, and Dominik Szoboszlai missed one of those.

But Salah and Isak’s numbers are down in other respects. Twelve months ago, they had overperformed their expected goals by 4.99 and 3.89 respectively. Now they have underperformed them, Salah by 2.78. The Egyptian’s xG per 90 minutes has halved, from 0.75 to 0.36. His shot count is down, but not as dramatically.

open image in gallery

Alexander Isak's first season with the Reds has been hampered by injuries (AFP via Getty Images)

For Isak, semi-fit for some of his time on the pitch with Liverpool, his shot count is reduced from 3.05 per minutes to 2.60, his xG from 0.68 to 0.48; again, the average quality of the chance is not as high.

In the rest of the forward line, the evidence is mixed. Chiesa and Ngumoha have overperformed their xG and have excellent goal-per-minute ratios, but have one league start between them. Ekitike and Gakpo have underperformed theirs; but, in the Frenchman’s defence, he was perhaps not bought to be the top scorer in his debut season and he is. When the final whistle blew on Saturday, only three players had more Premier League goals.

Go back a year, meanwhile, and Gakpo and Diaz could call themselves clinical, each with a goal tally that exceeded his xG. The late Jota and, unsurprisingly, Nunez had fewer than the statistics suggested they should.

open image in gallery

Hugo Ekitike has been Liverpool's main threat but even he is underperforming his xG (REUTERS)

A year ago, Liverpool’s attacking numbers – goals, xG – were far and away the best. Now they stand fourth, or close to it, in most markers. Some it comes down to chance creation. Their six forwards have 15 Premier League assists now. A year ago, Salah had 16 on his own, the others 10 between them.

Salah’s shift from unstoppable to unexpectedly impotent has come quicker than envisaged; indeed, Liverpool scored five goals on Saturday without him scoring or assisting. Isak’s injuries and ineffectiveness are another factor in a drop-off. If Ekitike should be exempt from much of the criticism, Slot’s verdict probably still stands. Twenty-six goals from their forwards is not really enough.