The unthinkable Man City consequence and five vital questions surrounding Premier League case | OneFootball

The Manchester City case could yet go on for at least a year, and potentially much more, according to sources with knowledge of the process. The Independent has also been told the independent panel of three judges have not yet made a decision, as the club themselves revealed with the publication of their annual accounts in December.

Nobody outside that has any idea of when the judges will actually make a ruling - and it is understood they have also been working on other cases. The initial judgement will likely only be on liability, with a “100 per cent expectation” from those close to the situation that City would strongly appeal any outcome they find unfavourable. City insist on their innocence.

Other sources maintain there would only be a narrow grounds for appeal according to Premier League rules, that would take no more than a year, unless there are considerable flaws in the Premier League’s case.

The investigation has been the subject of another phase of chatter over the past few weeks, both for the fact that 2026 represents the ninth year the case has ticked into since the November 2018 Football Leaks, and the manner that the club continue to spend. If City add Crystal Palace’s £35m-rated Marc Guehi to Antoine Semenyo, it will take net transfer spend since the December 2024 conclusion of the hearing to almost £500m.

That has irritated some in the Premier League, but also been met by a certain fatigue. A number of clubs now just want to get the process over with, especially with how legal fees are believed to be into the tens of millions for both sides. That could still go up considerably in the event of any appeal.

While many around City get frustrated when the case is raised, especially before big games like Saturday’s Manchester derby, the truth is that the uncertainty is just as relevant to supporters. No club should have this hanging over them for so long, especially given the potential consequences.

The length of time the investigation has dragged on could mean even more of Premier League history being distorted if City are found guilty of the most serious sanctions, to go with the long period the charges actually cover.

The numbers are just as striking there.

In addition to the billions spent on transfers and wages since the investigation opened, City have won five Premier Leagues, a Champions League, two FA Cups and three Carabao Cups. A treble and one other league title have come since the announcement of the charges in February 2023. When you stand back, it is remarkable that the world’s most valuable sporting competition, and arguably Britain’s most successful export, has witnessed a situation where such doubt has persisted for so long. As much as 21 per cent of the Premier League’s history has had the City case hanging over it, given it is now 86 months out of 401. That extends to 48.4 per cent if you go back to 2009-10 and the first season the charges relate to.

For the Premier League’s part, there are senior figures frustrated with the speed, especially since they’re aware of the uncertainty that the lack of resolution brings. They are still mindful of the unique complexity of the case, however, and accept that this is just regulation at work. Such numbers have nevertheless provoked a series of now repeatedly-asked questions from senior football figures: for the competition, the process, and the Premier League's very regulation.

Why has the case taken so much longer than Uefa’s?

City’s largely successful appeal of the initial Uefa case was concluded on 13 July 2020, a comparatively brief 20 months after Football Leaks, compared to 86. That was after a six-month investigation and subsequent one-day hearing in January 2020, before an initial decision in mid-February, which was primarily based on the same emails that the Premier League have. While the English competition is investigating a longer period due to how there is no statute of limitations, and sources would insist on its complexity, the flip side is that sources say “all the information is on a plate”, including subsequent leaks of documents that Uefa had been asking for. Football legal figures describe the contrasting delay as “inexplicable”. And although Uefa’s main punishment was overturned, that was down to interpretations of technicalities rather than failure of process.

Did the Premier League have a proper outline of the end process?

As long ago as 2021, Lord Justice Miles criticised the length of time that “a matter of legitimate public concern” was taking, as a new urgency then coincided with Alison Brittain's arrival as Premier League chair in 2022. The competition was duty-bound to investigate the leaks regardless of what any club thought, but there are now questions over whether the nature of such an unprecedented case was sufficiently defined. Executives now complain there wasn’t enough consultation for something so existential, especially as regards process, timescale and conclusion.

As one insider put it, “did the board actually address any questions before they pushed start? This was just imposed.” These claims have been put to the Premier League. There are also questions over whether the independent panel should have had this scale of latitude. Those with knowledge of the process would nevertheless say that some executives have been reminded that these are the rules they signed up to. Even allowing for the complexity of the case, they have to go according to precedent. Along the same lines, the latitude the judges have been given is provided for in that same independent process. As one figure more sympathetic to the Premier League says, “there's always a point in a lengthy case when people get frustrated, but this is the law working.”

Why isn’t the case in public?

This ultimately comes down to founding Premier League rules, where executives didn’t necessarily want “dirty washing in public”. That tends to be how justice gets done, however, before you even get to how a case like this reflects how the competition now has a totally different geopolitical profile. The Premier League's current processes are instead guided by the UK Arbitration Act, which requires all commercial arbitration to be conducted in private. Many stakeholders now feel English football should start anew on this and throw the system out, all the more so since commercial arbitration sets up the parties as equals, even though such processes are supposed to be prosecutions. It has now led to the absurd situation where the Premier League’s own rules stop the process reporting to the people who actually own the league - the clubs themselves. They currently have no information on something integral to their future. Many point to the strange contrast between a global league with so much money at stake, and private arbitration where no one knows anything.

Signing Marc Guehi could take Man City’s spending since the conclusion of the hearing beyond £500m (Getty Images)

If City are found not guilty of the most serious charges, what happens next?

While there might be a lot of sabre rattling, the club would be unlikely to see success in any attempt to sue the Premier League due to bodies having the right to bring charges. A disciplinary process also gives the opportunity for defence. Fears of City suing Uefa for loss of earnings also came to nothing. It would still be hard to see how the Premier League leadership could survive, and the financial and reputational cost could potentially bring significant resignations. It is perhaps significant that senior figures were said to be “relaxed” about this, of late.

More critical voices also feel that such an outcome would raise questions over the competition’s ability to enforce its own rules, especially with the unique challenges that state-linked ownership represents, even though City would be able to point to a legal outcome as illustration of their innocence. A Premier League appeal similarly looks less likely than a few years ago.

That is both due to figures who were most vocal on the issue having long moved on, from Arsenal to Manchester United, as well as a general feeling of fatigue. Some clubs were not in the Premier League over the period the charges relate to, and do not want to keep spending fortunes on legal services they feel has no impact on them. A belief also pervades that fostering fatigue through a lengthy process was a clear City tactic.

If City are found guilty of the most serious charges, what happens next?

While an appeal is virtually guaranteed, it will have to be on issues of process, and grounds for appeal are very limited by the Premier League rulebook. Any limitations may also be subjects of challenge, however. A more pertinent issue would be the punishment, and whether it would be suspended pending appeal. The tribunal will similarly have to be asked what the sanctions should be. And what if the outcome comes at the end of a season, given that a delay of a mere month could mean clubs miss out on a title or Champions League places?

By the same token, figures at some clubs may now insist they don’t care, but they could be entitled to compensation if City are found to have cheated. There are currently no guidelines for how such claims would be managed, or even whether any monetary compensation would be permitted to be put on the pitch under financial rules. There would then be the biggest question, whether such an outcome would bring a forced sale under new rules related to the Independent Football Regulator.

The Department of Culture, Media and Sport has already spoken about how “rogue owners” will be pushed out, but insiders couldn’t answer the question over whether City would fall under that description in the event of a guilty verdict. There is nevertheless an obvious awareness that it could lead to a diplomatic incident.