The weak link theory that will decide who wins the World Cup | OneFootball

By its very nature, the World Cup is destined to be described in terms of the best. There is an argument, though, that it is determined by the least worst. Or, to put it another way, by who has the strongest weak link. Go by weak link theory and the tournament will not be decided by Lionel Messi or Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe; each can be called his team’s finest player. But the 11th name on the teamsheet might be the most important.

Especially because, in international football, there is an ever-present risk the worst player is worse than in the elite club sides. Without a transfer market, without the option of importing anyone, then, even in the diaspora World Cup, national team managers are picking from a limited talent pool.

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The winner of this World Cup may have the strongest collective rather than an individual star (Getty)

It feels particularly pertinent now. Each of the contenders is flawed. It would be easy to construct a (hypothetically) World Cup-winning side from sections of different sides: perhaps with France’s forwards, Spain’s midfield, Portugal’s full-backs, Brazil’s central defenders and Belgium’s goalkeeper. Take the alternative approach and some distinctly undistinguished theoretical sides could be assembled.

So the determining factor may be who camouflages their weaknesses the best or who is inconvenienced the least by relative shortcomings. It is a blueprint that has worked.

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Spain won Euro 2024 as the most balanced team (Getty)

Spain won Euro 2024 as the most balanced team in the tournament, and courtesy of a goal in the final by Mikel Oyarzabal. It is nevertheless hard to claim Luis de la Fuente’s team have the most enviable assortment of strikers or centre-backs right now.

For France, perhaps billed as co-favourites before the World Cup, there are questions about a midfield that, in recent years, has lost Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann, while N’Golo Kante is now in his mid-thirties. They reached the 2022 final with Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni but it is difficult to see them controlling games in a way Spain or Portugal could.

Roberto Martinez’s team can seem short of world-class centre-backs, especially when Ruben Dias is out. The unfortunate conclusion for them, however, may be that the area where they are weakest is the one where they boast an all-time great: centre-forward, as long as Cristiano Ronaldo is there.

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Cristiano Ronaldo may be both Portugal’s best ever player and a problem at this World Cup (Getty)

England have no such issues when Harry Kane is fit and firing. Historically, the middle of midfield has been an issue; it was in 2018 when they were out-passed by Croatia. Now, with Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice in tandem, the concerns may come from a defence that conceded twice to Croatia in Dallas. England have good players at the back; but World Cup-winning ones?

In South America, historic enemies could be united by a shared difficulty. Brazil and Argentina are not blessed with the best choices at full-back, which did not stop Lionel Scaloni’s side from triumphing in Qatar; that, with Messi’s form, was more a case of strong-link theory prevailing. With Angel Di Maria now in international retirement, Argentina lack the class on the wings that some of their rivals possess.

For Brazil, there are additional questions about the centre of midfield, which were exacerbated by Casemiro’s struggles against Morocco, and if they possess a good enough No 9. The same may be said of Germany, though Kai Havertz, while more of false nine, got his tournament off to a two-goal start against Curacao. Bringing goalkeeper Manuel Neuer out of international retirement seemed a sign Julian Nagelsmann was addressing one area where they could compare unfavourably to other contenders. Their neighbours in the Netherlands are blessed with defenders but, relative to previous Dutch sides, maybe not with some of their midfielders and forwards.

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Brazil appear to have a number of problem positions (Reuters)

The history of the World Cup shows that it can be won by the group with the outstanding individual – whether Pele or Diego Maradona, Messi or Garrincha – those who just assumed that status for a short period, in Paolo Rossi or Mario Kempes.

But some of the recent triumphs have come from those who managed to ensure their imperfections did not cost them, or who could obscure issues. In 2014, Germany ended up shifting Philipp Lahm, who started the tournament in midfield, to the problem position of right-back. France won in both 1998 and 2018 with non-scoring strikers – first Stephane Guivarc’h and then Olivier Giroud, who completed the Russia World Cup without mustering a shot on target – but each was at least a foil to the more potent players who operated behind or alongside him.

The most prosaic performer in the starting 11 of the 2010 Spain champions was probably left-back Joan Capdevila; but he was reliable enough to ensure he was never exploited. In both 2006 and 2014 the eventual champions, Italy and Germany respectively, benefited from a high median level in the team. Arguably neither had a superstar, but neither a weak link either. And, if a team is only as strong as its 11th man, perhaps the formula to win the World Cup is to ensure the weak link is not a weakness at all.