The World Cup looms for Mexico – but is cartel violence under control? | OneFootball

With nearly 1 million fans set to descend on Mexico for the World Cup, Fifa has vowed that the world’s most-watched sporting competition will pass seamlessly.

But violent clashes in the country sparked by the death of a drug lord earlier this year are a stark reminder of the powerful cartels that have long caused chaos in Mexico.

In February, Jalisco state authorities declared a state of emergency hours after Mexican security forces killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, the formidable leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

Cartel militants responded with a destructive campaign of violence across the country, taking ferocious revenge for the killing of El Mencho.

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CJNG militants set fire to vehicles to create roadblocks as they rioted after the killing of El Mencho in February (AFP/Getty)

During the rampage, they set fire to cargo trucks and buses to create roadblocks. Over two days, 30 government agents and a similar number of cartel members were killed.

Four months on, the Jalisco city of Guadalajara is preparing to host four matches at the tournament, which is being shared with the United States and Canada.

A Fifa spokesperson told The Independent it is confident the government will “ensure a safe, secure, and welcoming environment”, with Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, set to deploy 100,000 troops across the host cities.

It is all part of Plan Kukulkan, an ambitious and large-scale strategy to deliver security through deep cooperation between multiple arms of Mexico’s security apparatus.

The plan, named after a serpent deity in Maya mythology, will see dozens of federal, state and local agencies work together to guarantee safety around the country’s stadiums, training facilities, transport hubs and tourist sites.

The expanded coordination between federal and local agencies could even benefit Mexico’s fight against organised crime after the World Cup comes to an end, experts say.

But Guadalajara’s chilling history still looms. In early 2025, a mass grave containing more than 250 bags of human remains was discovered just eight miles from the host stadium.

Mexico City, also a World Cup destination, saw a significant escalation in violence last year, partly because of Sheinbaum’s escalating confrontation with the cartels.

Around 276 organised crime violence events were recorded by conflict analysts ACLED, the most since 2019. That is a 53 per cent increase on 2024.

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Akron Stadium in Guadalajara is one of Mexico's three venues for the World Cup (Reuters)

Will striking teachers impact the World Cup?

Aside from the more obvious threat of gang-related violence, concerns have been raised about the impact of strikes in Mexico.

Teachers have threatened severe disruption to the tournament and may pose more of a practical problem for authorities in the coming weeks.

On Tuesday, striking teachers sparked chaos in downtown Mexico City, with protesters felling huge mannequins of footballers, setting footballs alight and blocking main roads across the capital. They were met with rubber bullets and teargas from riot police.

Chris Sabatini, director of the Latin America programme at Chatham House, said the union behind the strike could well cause problems during the tournament.

“It has basically undermined the entire Mexican educational system, and they've threatened to hold strikes to close off routes that would allow fans to go to the games,” he says.

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A protester hits a police crane during a protest by teachers in Mexico City ahead of the World Cup (AFP/Getty)

Associated with the CNTE union, the teachers are demanding salary increases and a reversal of pension reforms, and threatening to protest throughout the tournament if a solution is not reached. “If there is no solution, the ball won’t roll” goes their chant.

Tiziano Breda, a senior analyst for Latin America at ACLED, says: “Many sectors, including teachers and civil society groups, are likely to use the attention brought by the World Cup to shed light on their grievances, spanning from salary increases to requests for a government response to crime and forced disappearances.

“So public order could be an issue, and indeed we've recorded an increase in protests in both Monterrey and Mexico City this year.”

Experts have said that despite the headline-grabbing nature of drug gangs, the cartels may not have as much of an impact on the World Cup as feared, if only out of their own self-interest.

In fact, the cartels appear to be scaling down their violent activities ahead of the World Cup, as they look to exploit a boosted local economy.

In the first five months of 2026, incidents of organised criminal violence in Guadalajara fell 30 per cent compared to the previous five months. Monterrey saw a fall of 13 per cent in the same period.

The cartels are deeply embedded in local economies, so an escalation before or during the event could damage their profits.

Cartel bosses often own local businesses or “extort large swaths of the ... sectors that benefit from a greater flow of tourists”, says Breda.

“We are not recording particular increases in violence against civilians, or clashes with the state, or between armed groups, quite the contrary,” he continues.

“More violence would make more people shy away from attending, and that will mean fewer revenues for these groups.”

However, the risk always remains, given the fierce competition for tourist dollars.

“Restaurants, hotels, parking lots, merchandise ... anything that has to do with the World Cup will certainly attract interest, and so may generate violence if people do not abide by the rules imposed by these groups,” Breda said.

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The Mexican government will deploy 100,000 troops during the World Cup (AFP/Getty)

Could violence explode post-World Cup?

Experts have warned that there is a risk that violence could resume once the five-week tournament ends.

Internal disputes within the CJNG may bubble over in the wake of the killing of El Mencho once the international community averts its gaze from Mexico and thousands of visitors depart.

The influx of revenue from the tournament could also stoke infighting in the cartel, given the lack of a clear successor.

“That’s the impression I have,” Breda says. “Whatever is cooking in the CJNG after the killing of El Mencho will likely be left for after the World Cup has finished.

“We could see serious repercussions from internal disputes in the CJNG and a resumption of violent activities in various parts of Mexico.”