Thursday's Europa League Tips: Back 7/2 Villa draw & Forest to fall short at 7/2 Porto | OneFootball

Braga v Real Betis Tip - Back Braga for another clean sheet

A bit of a Spain-Portugal derby game here and one that's in the balance with Braga slight 6/4 home favourites for this first leg and Betis 9/5 road underdogs. The hosts have won nine out of 10 European home games and progressed from their last seven two-legged ties so will be full of confidence, unlike their struggling visitors.

Manuel Pellegrini's Betis have won just once in eight games and have lost three straight away from home, just hitting a wall at the wrong time ahead of their first ever Europa League quarter-final. Both sides had thumping 4-0 second-leg wins at home after losing the away leg first so they'll both feel their strength is in front of their home fans.

For me that means Betis will be happy with a narrow loss and with Braga keeping seven clean sheets in the competition this season, more than anyone else, I can see this game being exactly that.

Bologna v Aston Villa Tip - Back a stubborn stalemate in Italy

Click here for Bologna v Aston Villa odds20:00 kick-offLive on HBO Max & TNT Sports 2

Vincenzo Italiano took Fiorentina to two Conference League finals (losing both) and now has Bolgona on an 11-match unbeaten run in the Europa League as he looks to make it third time lucky, but his side are 21/10 home underdogs against tournament favourites Aston Villa and the master of this competition Unai Emery.

Villa are 13/10 for an eighth straight win in the competition and have four wins from five on the road in the Europa League - they beat Bologna 1-0 in this back in September and 2-0 in last season's Champions League, but both of those games came at Villa Park.

Six of Bologna's last seven home games produced under 2.5 goals and this could go the same way. Villa should be too strong and they've had a long break, but sometimes that can result in a slow start and the Italians won't mind that as they take an old school European competition approach. With three home draws in the group and another in the last round I'm backing this one to end level with the tie settled back at Villa Park.

Porto v Nottingham Forest Tip - Porto to pinch it

Click here for Porto v Nottingham Forest odds20:00 kick-offLive on HBO Max & TNT Sports 1

Vitor Pereira's Forest side have had a good break since a huge win at Spurs, but they're 13/5 underdogs to earn another one at Porto - who are 11/10 and have won all five Europa League home games so far. The Dragons did lose 2-0 away at Forest earlier in the campaign though, back in those days when Sean Dyche had just taken charge.

Wins at Midtjylland and Fenerbahce show Forest's improvement but Porto at the Estadio do Dragao is another step up in class - with the hosts scoring 2+ goals in six of the past eight you wonder if Forest can keep pace as they have had some problems converting shots on target into goals. Maybe the five goals in the last two away games can be a turning point?

So we expect both teams to score here but the strength of the home side means we'll take Porto to just pinch a first-leg lead.

Freiburg v Celta Vigo Tip - Back goals in Germany

Click here for Freiburg v Celta Vigo odds20:00 kick-offLive on TNT Sports 4 & HBO Max

Freiburg lost to Bayern Munich at the weekend, no shame in that usually but they did lead 2-0 with 80 minutes on the clock so that's a gut punch they'll have to shake off to win a 10th straight Europa League home game - and they're 5/4 favourites to do just that against 21/10 Celta Vigo who are unbeaten in eight away games.

The Spaniards put out Lyon in the last round by winning the away leg so this will hold no fear for them, and we should get a good game here as while Freiburg struggle against sides that sit in, scoring 10 goals in home games against Bayern, Genk and Leverkusen shows how clinical they can be in a more open game.

So we'll definitely back goals and while both sides have reasons to expect a win they could easily cancel each other out - and with four draws in their eight-game run on the road for Celta I'll plump for an entertaining stalemate.