Title race heats up: Inter lead, but battle is back on | OneFootball

With the international break comes the new update of Opta's Supercomputer, the sophisticated mathematical model that calculates the probability of winning the Scudetto and qualifying for the European cups for all Serie A teams.

Scudetto brawl, Opta updates the predictions: Inter leads, but the fight reopens

After six rounds, the trends show an increasingly balanced championship: Inter remains the main candidate for the title, even losing some percentage points, while Napoli gains ground and confirms itself as the most credible rival.

The real news, however, concerns the Champions race: Milan surpasses Juventus in the probability of qualification, relaunching itself after a convincing start to the season.

Serie A 2025/26: the new percentages of the Opta Supercomputer Inter

Scudetto: from 35.9% at the start of the season to the current 28.46%

Champions qualification: from 78.5% to 77.03%

Despite a slight drop in forecasts, Simone Inzaghi's team remains the favorite for the Scudetto. Inter probably pays for some missteps, but continues to be the team with the most complete squad and the best overall performance.

Napoli

Scudetto: from 13.7% to 24.71%

Champions League: from 52.9% to 72.40%

Napoli is the team that has most improved its chances. Solid performances and a rediscovered game under the new technical guidance fuel the hope of a return to the top.

Roma

Scudetto: from 9.9% to 17.41%

Champions League: from 45.9% to 65.66%

The Giallorossi show constant progress: the Supercomputer's numbers reflect the growth in performance and defensive solidity. Mourinho (or the current coach, depending on the context) seems to have found the right formula to aim for the top 4.

Milan

Scudetto: from 6.7% to 11.51%

Champions League: from 36.7% to 55.29%

Milan is the real surprise of this update: the increase of almost 20 percentage points in the Champions race testifies to the effectiveness of the new technical project and the constant performance of some key protagonists. "The overtaking of Juventus is an important signal," Opta highlights.

Juventus

Scudetto: from 8.2% to 7.83%

Champions League: from 39.7% to 46.99%

Slight decline in title chances and a more uncertain position in the Champions zone. Juve remains competitive, but the lack of continuity penalizes the predictive model.

Atalanta

Scudetto: from 12.8% to 7.28%

Champions League: from 52% to 44.18%

For the Dea, the numbers tell of a transition phase: the Supercomputer signals a drop in the probabilities of both the Scudetto and Champions qualification, but the season is still long.

General analysis: balance and uncertainty in the race to the top

The October update of Opta's Supercomputer confirms a Serie A 2025/26 more uncertain and competitive than in the past. Inter remains in the lead, but the gap with the pursuers is narrowing. Napoli, Milan, and Roma significantly improve their prospects, while Juventus and Atalanta see their initial ambitions downsized.

In summary, the race for the Scudetto and the Champions places is far from decided: the coming months could hold surprises, especially if the statistical trends continue to shift as in the first six rounds.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.