Too many defeats for the title? Roma, Napoli, Inter rewrite history | OneFootball

After twelve matchdays, the 2025-26 Serie A presents an unprecedented and surprising picture: among the top four in the standings, three teams—Roma, Napoli, and Inter—have already accumulated a number of defeats decidedly higher than what is usually compatible with a Scudetto race.

Scudetto with too many defeats? Roma, Napoli, and Inter rewrite the rules: what 30 years of Serie A say

It’s a revealing sign, suggesting a more uncertain league, less dominated by the big teams and potentially open to unexpected outcomes.

Roma leads the group with three losses, the same negative tally as Napoli; Inter has even racked up four, yet remains fully in the race. Only Milan boasts a more “big club” record, with just one defeat. At this point in the season, however, the question arises spontaneously: is it really possible to win the league with so many slip-ups in the first twelve matches?

What the history of three-point Serie A says

The historical data is clear and represents a real watershed. Since 1994-95, the year Serie A introduced the three-point win, only two teams have won the title with seven defeats:

Juventus 1994-95, in a transitional season;

Juventus 2019-20, a season heavily affected by the Covid emergency.

Outside of these two extreme cases, no team has managed to become champion after exceeding five defeats. It is therefore evident that Roma, Napoli, and Inter are already treading on historically critical ground.

A league leveled downward

The number of defeats among the top teams reveals a clear phenomenon: there is no dominant team. The big clubs are less consistent, less solid, and less able to impose long winning streaks as they did until a few seasons ago. The league’s competitiveness has increased, but more due to collective shortcomings than overall growth.

Roma remains ahead despite marked missteps. Napoli alternates high-level performances with unexpected blackouts. Inter, considered to have the strongest squad, has paid dearly in head-to-head clashes. All signs of a fragile balance that makes every matchday potentially decisive.

The possible outsiders

With the big clubs struggling, spaces are opening up that in recent years had remained practically closed:

Allegri’s Milan, with just one defeat, currently appears to be the most solid candidate in terms of consistency;

Italiano’s Bologna, with only two losses, is now a stable presence in the upper zones;

Fabregas’ Como, even with a game in hand, has lost only once;

even Juventus, despite technical difficulties, remains surprisingly alive with just two setbacks.

The tight standings and the inconsistent performance of the powerhouses are redrawing the geography of the league. The margin for a real surprise today is greater than in any recent season.

Can you win with so many defeats?

The answer will come in the coming months, but the numbers suggest a clear truth: for Roma, Napoli, and Inter, it will be necessary to correct course if they truly want to stay in the Scudetto race. Exceeding five defeats means entering territory rarely compatible with the title.

Much will depend on the ability to maintain consistency in the next two-thirds of the season. In a league without rulers, regularity becomes as decisive a factor as—if not more than—technical quality. Whoever manages to avoid sudden collapses can stake a claim as the favorite.

A less dominant but more fascinating league

The 2025-26 Serie A is shaping up to be an unpredictable and potentially revolutionary season. A “less strong” tournament in the traditional sense, but richer in opportunities. The big clubs no longer dictate the law of the strongest. Rivals are no longer overwhelmed by the difference in quality.

Such an open context could deliver a league full of twists, where the margins for surprise have never been so wide. If the current trend continues, we are in for a title race capable of overturning the logic and numbers of the last thirty years of Serie A.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.