Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets | OneFootball

Tunisia arrive at Arrowhead Stadium with nothing left to lose and everything to prove, while the Netherlands need a result to cement their place at the top of Group F — but the Tunisia vs Netherlands World Cup 2026 predictions point firmly in one direction…

Fixture Details

Tunisia vs Netherlands | Thursday 25 June 2026 | Kick-off: 18:00 local (23:00 BST) | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | FIFA World Cup 2026, Group F, Matchday 3

Live in the UK on BBC / iPlayer. Netherlands sit top of Group F on four points; Tunisia are bottom with zero points and a goal difference of -8.

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What’s At Stake

Tunisia have lost both of their Group F matches, conceding nine goals in the process, and are already eliminated from knockout contention regardless of this result. The Netherlands, sitting top on four points after a draw with Japan and a 5-1 win over Sweden, know that even a point here all but confirms their place in the last sixteen. A win would seal top spot heading into the knockout round, so Ronald Koeman’s side have strong incentive to finish the job professionally rather than settle for a cautious draw.

Verdict

The Netherlands are 1/7 to win this fixture, and on every piece of available evidence that price reflects the reality of the contest. Back the Netherlands to win and both teams to score as a combination, offering better value than the straightforward match result alone, given Tunisia did find the net against Japan.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Match Preview

This is as uneven a Group F finale as the standings suggest. Tunisia shipped four against Japan and five against Sweden, and their lone tournament goal came from defender Omar Rekik. They have scored just one goal in their two World Cup games, conceded nine, and face a Dutch side who put five past Sweden without breaking a sweat. The task for Hervé Renard, who stepped in after Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed following the opening match, is enormous.

Yet Tunisia are not entirely without quality. Ellyes Skhiri of Eintracht Frankfurt anchors the midfield with 83 caps of experience, Hannibal Mejbri of Burnley carries threat in transition, and the introduction of Ismaël Gharbi could add spark. The issue has been collective defensive organisation rather than individual ability, and against Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders, those structural problems are unlikely to improve.

For the Netherlands, this is an opportunity to build momentum and confidence. Ronald Koeman’s side stuttered to a 2-2 draw against Japan on Matchday 1 but responded with a commanding 5-1 victory over Sweden. With the Group F top spot theirs to claim, and the knockout round in their sights, Netherlands will be looking for a convincing performance that sets the tone for the next stage of the tournament.

Team Form

Tunisia — Last Five Results

– Japan (H): Lost 0-4 (FIFA World Cup) – Sweden (A): Lost 1-5 (FIFA World Cup) – Belgium (A): Lost 0-5 (Friendly) – Austria (A): Lost 0-1 (Friendly) – Canada (A): Drew 0-0 (Friendly)

Tunisia’s pre-tournament preparation offered little comfort, and their World Cup results have confirmed those fears. The 0-4 and 1-5 losses represent a combined nine goals conceded in competitive matches, and their sole goal came from a centre-back. The concession rate at this level is deeply damaging to any confidence ahead of this fixture.

Netherlands — Last Five Results

– Sweden (H): Won 5-1 (FIFA World Cup) – Japan (H): Drew 2-2 (FIFA World Cup) – Uzbekistan (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly) – Algeria (H): Lost 0-1 (Friendly) – Ecuador (H): Drew 1-1 (Friendly)

The Netherlands’ pre-tournament friendlies raised mild concerns, but once the competitive matches began, Koeman’s side quickly found their rhythm. The 5-1 dismantling of Sweden was a statement performance, with the Dutch attacking unit demonstrating the kind of fluency that makes them genuinely dangerous at this level. Their qualifying campaign — six wins and two draws from eight matches, scoring 27 goals — underlined just how effective this group can be.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Head to Head

These two sides have met only three times in their history, and all three occasions have been friendlies. In 2009, the match in Tunis ended 1-1. In 1994, the teams drew 2-2. The only previous Dutch victory came in 1978, when the Netherlands won 4-0. There is no World Cup tournament history between the sides, making this a first competitive meeting.

The Tunisia vs Netherlands head to head record offers limited predictive value given how long ago these matches took place and the fact none came in a competitive setting. What it does hint at is Tunisia’s ability to score against Netherlands at some point, which has bearing on the goals markets.

Team News

Tunisia

Tunisia’s squad situation has been overshadowed by the managerial change, with Hervé Renard now at the helm after Sabri Lamouchi’s departure. The squad itself retains experience in key areas: Ellyes Skhiri has 83 caps and provides defensive midfield steel, while Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) and Anis Ben Slimane (Norwich City) offer energy and creativity in the middle of the park. Khalil Ayari of Paris Saint-Germain is among the younger options available.

In attack, Tunisia have lacked a consistent goal threat throughout the tournament. Elias Achouri and Elias Saad have been amongst the recent scorers at international level, but neither has made a significant impact at this World Cup. With the group stage already over for them in terms of progression, Renard may use this match to give opportunities to younger players such as 18-year-old Rayan Elloumi of Vancouver Whitecaps.

Netherlands

Ronald Koeman has a near full-strength squad available and is unlikely to make wholesale changes given the Netherlands’ ambition to win the group. Virgil van Dijk, who scored during the tournament, marshals the defence from Liverpool, while Frenkie de Jong provides the creative foundation in midfield. Ryan Gravenberch, also of Liverpool, adds dynamism alongside Teun Koopmeiners of Juventus.

Cody Gakpo of Liverpool and Memphis Depay of Corinthians are the attacking focal points. Depay, the Netherlands’ all-time leading scorer with 55 international goals, will be hungry to add to his tally against opponents who have shipped nine goals in two games. Koeman may rotate some peripheral squad members, but the core of the side is expected to remain intact.

Predicted Lineups

Tunisia (4-3-3): Aymen Dahmen; Yan Valery, Montassar Talbi, Dylan Bronn, Ali Abdi; Ellyes Skhiri (c), Hannibal Mejbri, Anis Ben Slimane; Elias Achouri, Elias Saad, Ismaël Gharbi.

Netherlands (4-3-3): Bart Verbruggen; Denzel Dumfries, Virgil van Dijk (c), Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké; Ryan Gravenberch, Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders; Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Donyell Malen.

Predicted lineups based on available squad information — official starting elevens to be confirmed closer to kick-off.

Key Tactical Matchup

The contest within the contest is Ellyes Skhiri’s battle to contain Tijjani Reijnders in central midfield. Reijnders, with seven international goals from 32 caps at Manchester City, has shown a remarkable ability to arrive late into attacking positions, and Tunisia’s midfield has been consistently bypassed at this tournament. Skhiri’s 83 caps bring authority and positional discipline, but he was unable to prevent the pattern of conceding in waves against Japan and Sweden. If Reijnders is afforded the same freedom he and Frenkie de Jong enjoyed against a Sweden side who also lost heavily, the Dutch goal tally here could be significant.

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Main Pick: Netherlands to Win

Netherlands to Win @ 1/7

The form gap between these sides is as stark as the Group F standings suggest. The Netherlands have scored seven goals in two World Cup matches, including five against Sweden, while Tunisia have conceded nine and scored just one. Ronald Koeman’s side are focused on winning the group and will approach this as a professional exercise in confirming their knockout berth.

Goals Market: Over 3.25 Goals

Over 3.25 Goals @ 1/1

The total line sits at 3.25 goals and the best price for the over is 1/1. Tunisia have been involved in high-scoring affairs throughout the tournament, conceding four and five in their two matches, and the Netherlands demonstrated against Sweden that they are capable of sustaining attacking pressure across ninety minutes. With Tunisia needing to attack and leaving space in behind, goals at both ends feel likely.

Scorer Market: Cody Gakpo to Score Anytime

Cody Gakpo to Score Anytime

Gakpo has nine international goals from 50 caps for the Netherlands and has been central to their attacking play at this tournament. He scored in the Netherlands’ World Cup campaign and carries a consistent threat in attacking transitions. Against a Tunisia defensive unit that has conceded nine goals in two matches, Gakpo’s combination of movement and finishing makes him a strong candidate to get on the scoresheet.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Bet Builder / Acca Suggestion

Netherlands to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

For those building a Tunisia vs Netherlands accumulator or using the bet builder, combining the Netherlands win with over 2.5 goals in the match is a natural pairing. The Dutch have gone over 2.5 goals in both of their World Cup group matches, and Tunisia’s defensive record offers little reason to think that changes here. This combination offers a meaningful odds boost over the outright result alone and is grounded in the most consistent statistical pattern of the group stage.

Odds Across Operators

The best available Tunisia vs Netherlands betting odds from leading operators are shown below. The Netherlands are strong favourites at 1/7, reflecting their dominant Group F position.

Odds are correct at time of writing and are subject to change. Check with your operator for the latest Tunisia vs Netherlands odds before placing.

How to Watch and How to Bet

How to Watch

Tunisia vs Netherlands is live on BBC and BBC iPlayer in the United Kingdom, with kick-off at 23:00 BST on Thursday 25 June 2026. The match takes place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. UK viewers can stream for free via iPlayer with no subscription required.

How to Bet

If you want to back the Netherlands or explore the goals markets, here is a straightforward guide to getting your bet on responsibly.

Responsible Gambling

Betting should always be approached as entertainment, never as a means of generating income. Set a deposit limit before you start, never chase losses, and take a break if gambling stops feeling fun. Free, confidential support is available at any time via BeGambleAware. If you or someone you know needs help, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

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