U21 Euros: What Italy need to qualify for European Championship | OneFootball

Alphadjo Cisse’s last-gasp winner means Italy can still top the European Under-21 Championship qualifying group, but only if they beat Poland by two clear goals on Monday.

The Azzurrini have been trailing in second place in Group E behind a Poland side with a 100 per cent record, having won all nine matches with 26 goals scored and only two conceded.

Silvio Baldini’s side managed to keep up as best they could, winning eight and losing just the head-to-head with Poland after fumbling a lead in a 2-1 defeat back in November 2025.

Italy pushing for top spot

FLORENCE – JANUARY 17: Alphadjo Cisse� of Italy looks on during the International Friendly between Italy U19 and Spain U19 at Centro Tecnico Federale di Coverciano on January 17, 2024 in Florence (Photo by Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images)

Only the top team go through directly to the European Under-21 Championship next summer, so it is a straight showdown in Pescara on Monday, the final game of the group stage.

As Poland have a better overall goal difference, with the Azzurrini scoring 26 and conceding five, they need to get a better goal difference in the head-to-head record and cannot afford to merely match it.

That means they must win by two clear goals on Monday to take first place.

EMPOLI – MARCH 26: Costantino Favasuli of Italy U21 in action during the UEFA Under 21 EURO Qualifier match between Italy U21 and North Macedonia U21 at Stadio Carlo Castellani on March 26, 2026 in Empoli. (Photo by Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images)

If the Nazionale don’t manage that, then they can still qualify for the tournament as one of the two runners-up with the best record, not counting results against sixth-placed teams.

That is likely to be Greece, because they too are on 24 points and expect to be behind Germany thanks to the head-to-head record.

Finland on 22 points and Spain 24 are also potential challengers in Group A, depending on Italy’s result.

Failing that, there is always the lottery of the play-offs with the other eight runners-up.