U.S. Open Cup Semifinals: Colorado Rapids vs. St. Louis CITY | OneFootball

It’s been a looong time since the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals. So long, all these things have happened:

Allow me to explain that last one. When Colorado Rapids and St. Louis CITY made it into this semi-final round back on May 19th, it was quite the surprise. At that time, both teams were below the playoff line: Rapids in 11th and CITY in 12th. But then came the World Cup break. Since then, each team has experienced rapid improvement.

Colorado Rapids

The best word to describe Colorado’s journey after the World Cup break is: curious.

The Rapids actually made few changes during the two month break, but they were all potentially significant. Center-back Lucas Herrington was traded to newly promoted Hull City for a club-record $17M fee. But against all expectations their defense did not get worse. And then there’s Rafael Navarro. The Brazilian striker led Colorado with 10g/3a heading into September. Then he packed his bags on September 2nd and went to… yep… St. Louis CITY for a cool $12M. Since he left, the team has one win, draw and loss. So, the jury is still out on what an impact this will have.

Offensively, twelve different Rapids players have hit the net this season, but only four have scored since July. In fact, of Colorado’s 33 goals, only seven have been scored in the past ten games. Every game they’ve played at home has been a win. And a shutout. Of their four road games, they’ve lost three.

It’s actually a very weird thing.

St. Louis CITY

If “curious” describes Colorado’s post-World Cup, St. Louis’ can only be described as: inconceivable.

CITY sold their top goalscorer Marcel Hartel to Hoffenheim in July, then traded another major contributor Eduard Löwen to the San Jose Earthquakes in late August. Any team that committed to self-harm has no business going undefeated for seven straight weeks… and yet they have.

CITY’s success can only be attributed to a true team spirit. Seventeen different players have scored for the club, which is a league-high. Their scoring leader Simon Becher accounts for only 19% of those (7 of 37), and six of them have come after the break. Unlike Colorado, whose offensive output stalled while their defense stiffened, St. Louis’ attack has exploded since July. They’ve scored 23 of their 37 total goals since the restart.

Now, all that cash they earned from the Hartel and Löwen sales was invested in two new players. And so far that investment is earning real dividends. The $6M for midfielder Carlo Holse (from Samsunspor) has yielded two goals. But the $12M for Navarro (see above) has already produced four goals in three games. Ka-ching!

How This Should Play

From 11th to 7th (Rapids), or 12th to 5th (CITY), there’s no doubt this fixture will be filled with drama. The Navarro angle alone is enough to fuel a telenovela plotline. And it makes predicting an outcome very difficult.

Looking at the baseline stats, Colorado has a slight edge on the goals conceded (1.28 to 1.40), while St. Louis leads in goals scored (1.68 to 1.32). Their match history is completely level: each with 3 wins and 2 draws.

Momentum should play a big role. Colorado has six consecutive wins with clean sheets at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park to defend; St. Louis is undefeated for nearly two months. Something will have to give, and one team will have to be declared a winner to move on into the finals to face the winner of Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City.

For my money, it will St. Louis. And it will be the former Rapids star Rafael Navarro who will score the winner. Because, well, narrative. And soccer does love a telenovela.