Using xG data and AI to predict the 2025 K League 1 Golden Boot winner | OneFootball

The 2025 K League 1 Golden Boot race is fairly tight heading into the last two rounds of the season. Using expected goals data and AI, we predict who will finish as the top goal scorer and how many more goals the main contenders will bag.

This year's golden boot winner will at the very least match the best of the last three seasons. Pablo Sabbag currently has 17 goals, the same number that both Cho Gue-sung and Joo Min-kyu finished with in 2022 and 2023, respectively. It's also two more than Stefan Mugosa's 15 last year. But, just how many goals will the main contenders score between now and the end of the season?

K League 1 top scorers with two games to go

Pablo Sabbag, Suwon FC - 17

Lee Ho-jae, Pohang Steelers - 15

Jeon Jin-woo, Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - 15

Bruno Mota, FC Anyang - 14

Joo Min-kyu, Daejeon Hana Citizen - 14

Lee Dong-gyeong, Ulsan HD - 13

Andrea Compagno, Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - 13

Yuri Jonathan, Jeju SK - 11

Park Sang-hyeok, Gangwon FC - 11

Cesinha, Daegu FC - 11

Joo Min-kyu, Lee Dong-gyeong, and Andrea Compagno look to have seen their seasons end prematurely due to injury, leaving it as a four-way race between Pablo Sabbag, Lee Ho-jae, Jeon Jin-woo, and Bruno Mota to claim the Golden Boot for 2025. Realistically, Yuri Jonathan, Park Sang-hyeok, and Cesinha, sitting on 11 goals, are not going to be scoring seven goals in two games to upsurt Sabbag.

The contenders

Pablo Sabbag, Suwon FC (17)

Suwon FC’s remaining fixtures: FC Anyang, Gwangju FC

The league's leading scorer, Pablo Sabbag, has a decent track record against Suwon's final two opponents this season, scoring three goals in six appearances in total against FC Anyang and Gwangju. Based on xG and xGOT, Sabbag is more likely to score against Anyang and has a 55% chance of scoring at least once against the Violets, with a 32% chance of scoring against the Griffins for an xG of 1.18 from the final two matches. With a two-goal cushion over the chasing pack, this might just be enough to secure the Golden Boot. Sabbag is also just one goal shy of matching Suwon's record goal scorer in a single top-flight season, Lars Veldwijk, who got 18 in 2021, 15 pre-split, and three post-split in Final A.

FC Anyang (2 goals, 3 apps): combined xG 1.9, combined xGOT 2.4

Gwangju FC (1 goal, 3 apps): combined xG 1.23, combined xGOT 1.18

Lee Ho-jae, Pohang Steelers (15)

Pohang’s remaining fixtures: Jeonbuk, Gangwon FC

Sitting two goals behind Sabbag, Lee Ho-jae has also managed three goals against his team's final two opponents this season, but from two games fewer. His two goals in two appearances against Gangwon, though, came from an xG of 0.79 overall, but 1.36 in terms of xGOT. This might imply that he has attempted shots from difficult areas of the pitch, but when he has hit the target, he has done so in areas with high probability of scoring. The 25-year-old has a 40% chance of scoring against Jeonbuk, and a 49% chance of scoring against Gangwon for an xG of 1.19. The last time a Pohang player won the top goalscorer award was 1993, when Cha Sang-rae scored 10 in the POSCO Atoms era. The highest any Pohang player has scored in a single season is 20, with Cho Kyeung-yeon in 1989.

Jeonbuk (1 goal, 2 apps): combined xG 0.64, combined xGOT 1.02

Gangwon FC (2 goals, 2 apps): combined xG 0.79, combined xGOT 1.36

Jeon Jin-woo, Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (15)

Jeonbuk’s remaining fixtures: Pohang, FC Seoul

Level on 15 with Lee Ho-jae, one of the season's surprise packages for the golden boot race, Jeonbuk winger Jeon Jin-woo has just one goal against the Green Warriors' final opponents from five appearances. He is most likely to score against Pohang, with a 28.7% chance, compared to 26.7% against FC Seoul for a combined xG of 0.65, meaning he is probably unlikely to add any more goals to his tally. Jeonbuk's last golden boot winner was Cho Gue-sung in 2022, but his season was split between Gimcheon (13) and the Green Warriors (4), meaning Lee Dong-gook in 2009, bagging 20 in 27 matches, was the last.

Pohang (1 goal, 3 apps): combined xG 0.81, combined xGOT 1.01

FC Seoul (0 goals, 2 apps): combined xG 1.06, combined xGOT 0.62

Bruno Mota, FC Anyang (14)

FC Anyang’s remaining fixtures: Suwon FC, Daegu FC

FC Anyang's number nine, Bruno Mota, has a very healthy record against both of the Violets' last two opponents, with five goals from six appearances. He managed a very impressive xGOT of 2.9 versus Suwon overall in three appearances, and it is against the Castle Park side that he is most likely to score against with 62%, compared to 17.9% against Daegu due to a low xGOT value across the three games. The last time a newly-promoted side had a player win the golden boot award was Gyeongnam in 2018 when Marcao scored 26 goals. Before that, Jung Jo-gook in 2016 scored 20 for Gwangju.

Suwon FC (3 goals, 3 apps): combined xG 1.62, combined xGOT 2.9

Projected final totals

Pablo Sabbag - 18.18

Lee Ho-jae - 16.19Jeon Jin-woo - 15.65Bruno Mota - 15.16