Vasco at a crossroads: What must they do to return to Europe? | OneFootball

Vasco is experiencing a new phase in the Brazilian Championship. With an impressive run, having only one loss in the last 11 games, the team has shifted its focus: the "nightmare" of relegation is behind them, and now the fight is for a spot in the 2026 Copa Libertadores.

+ The 2025 Copa do Brasil has its semifinals set; Vasco faces Fluminense in two matches at Maracanã

The mathematics of qualification

The new reality for Vasco is reflected in statistical projections. According to the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), the club's risk of relegation has plummeted to just 0.009%. On the other hand, the chance of securing a spot in the next Libertadores (considering a G-8) is already 18.3%.

The two paths to the continental spot

Vasco, which hasn't competed in the Libertadores since 2018, has two paths to reach its goal. The first is through the Brasileirão: currently in 8th place with 42 points, the team is five points behind Fluminense, the sixth-placed team. Additionally, the spot could extend to G-7 or G-8.

The second path is winning the Copa do Brasil, where the Cruz-Maltino is already in the semifinals and will face Fluminense in December.

Next game is a direct confrontation

To keep the dream alive, Vasco's next challenge is a crucial direct confrontation. The team hosts São Paulo (9th place, with 41 points) next Sunday at São Januário, in a match that is crucial for staying in the upper part of the table.

Nuno Moreira celebrates another goal for Vasco – Photo: Matheus Lima

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.