Wales v Montenegro Tips: Back 13/5 Wilson to step up

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·14 October 2024

Wales v Montenegro Tips: Back 13/5 Wilson to step up

UEFA Nations League

Craig Bellamy has made an unbeaten start

OneFootball Videos

After his two tips won at 17/2 and 13/5 in Wales' 2-2 draw in Iceland, Dave Tindall looks for more profits when Craig Bellamy's men host Montenegro in Cardiff on Monday night...

Wales v Montenegro

Wales hoping for home boost

New boss Craig Bellamy continued his unbeaten start with a 2-2 draw in Iceland and Wales now have five points out of nine in Group B4. That puts them second in the group behind Turkey, who have won twice since playing out a 0-0 draw in Cardiff in Bellamy's first game in charge.

Wales, just as they did in the 2-1 away win against Montenegro, burst into a 2-0 advantage against Iceland. But this time they couldn't hold on. And while blowing a two-goal lead is the obvious headline, it could have been worse given the way Iceland stormed back after the break.

Bellamy saw the positives and said later: "I was really pleased. I enjoyed it. We'll benefit so much from that 45 minutes [in the second half], it's so good for us.

"It was me learning about the players and them learning from us. It's never good to concede, I don't like it, we'll look at it again. I felt momentum played a big part. It's about us understanding when to take the sting out the game, which will come. Overall, I'm pleased with the performance."

Montenegro propping up the group

It's been a grim start for Montenegro in Group B4. They've lost three out of three and scored just a single goal in those matches.

That said, they haven't been a million miles away. Since a 2-0 away defeat to Iceland in their opener, Montenegro have lost by the odd goal in three at home to Wales and suffered a narrow 1-0 loss away to group leaders Turkey.

That said, they did allow the Turks to have 29 shots on goal and the hosts hit the woodwork as well as having nine efforts on target. Montenegro have now lost five on the spin and are in grave danger of relegation from the group.

Wales big odds-on in Cardiff

Unbeaten Wales are 1/2 to beat 5/1 Montenegro while the Draw is 11/4.

There's no surprise in those odds given current form and the fact that Wales are at home and sit 45 places above Robert Prosinecki's side in the FIFA World Rankings.

Wales are 11/4 to win with both teams scoring and that landed in the first game.

Montenegro's lack of firepower perhaps gives the 3/4 for Under 2.5 Goals some appeal although these two did share three goals - Over 2.5 is 21/20 - in the first meeting in what were incredibly tough, rainy conditions in Niksic.

Johnson out but Wilson can step up

We landed winning bets of 13/5 and 17/2 thanks to Brennan Johnson's opening goal in Iceland.

But that won't be happening again on Monday as the very in-form Spurs attacker is suspended after picking up a yellow card in Reykjavik.

It'll be a miss for the Welsh, who are also withouth Ethan Ampadu, Aaron Ramsey and Dan James.

But they do have a very obvious alternative for a goalscorer bet.

Okay, he may not be Gareth Bale but Wales do have a forward player with a wand of a left foot: Harry Wilson.

Tipped for great things when coming through at Liverpool, he's not quite hit the heights expected but international football seems to suit him well.

He's already netted 10 goals in a Welsh shirt and that includes two in the last two after strikes against Iceland and the first game with Montenegro.

Wilson, who also scored a double in a 2-1 home win over Croatia this time last year, is 13/5 to score and that looks worth a punt.

Value in away fightback

I'm not entirely convinced that Montenegro should be too easily dismissed here even though Wales are by far the most likely winners.

And the way to play that idea is to back Wales to start fast again but fade later on: the pattern of their last two matches when they were 2-0 up in both but ended up with a narrow 2-1 win and a 2-2 draw.

The Wales/Draw option is 12/1 and is worth small play.

22/1.