Wednesday Football Tips: AFCON qualifier can buck goals trend at 7/2

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·4 September 2024

Wednesday Football Tips: AFCON qualifier can buck goals trend at 7/2

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Said Bakari (left) plays his club football for Sparta Rotterdam in the Dutch Eredivisie

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Our in-form football props column focuses on Africa Cup of Nations qualifying on Wednesday, offering up a 7/2 Bet Builder...

Comoros v GambiaWednesday 4 September, 16:00

Europe's internationals may not begin until Thursday but over in Africa it's a different story and I think there could be some value to be had in this contest.

Leg 1: Comoros to win

It's the opening matchday of 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying this week and Comoros come into it high on confidence following a strong start to their World Cup qualifying campaign.

They've won three of four in that competition so far, including a 1-0 victory over Ghana at 'home' - they hosts matches in Morocco.

Comoros have been steady improvers in the African game in recent years, qualifying for AFCON in 2021 where they stunned Ghana with a 3-2 win.

Most recently, they made their first-ever semi-final at the COSAFA Cup in the summer - a tournament for teams in Southern Africa.

They've got several players in their current squad who have made a decent career for themselves in Europe.

Several have played in the top two tiers in France, defender Said Bakari has been a regular at Sparta Rotterdam, while you may remember Myziane Maolida, who scored 10 goals in 19 appearances for Hibernian last season while on loan from Hertha Berlin. He's now playing in the Saudi Pro League.

In contrast, Gambia are struggling. They've lost six of their last seven with the odd-one-out being a win over whipping boys Seychelles, who have conceded 22 goals in their opening four World Cup qualifers. It can largely be dismissed.

In short, I'm surprised to see the hosts offered at 8/5 and that's certainly a price I can back.

Leg 2: Over 2.5 goals

To create our Bet Builder on what is a tricky day for props punters, I'm going to double that up with over 2.5 goals.

Betting the overs in this market goes against the trend for competitive games in Africa but here we've got two teams who have scored - and conceded - goals of late.

Comoros have netted eight in their four World Cup qualifiers, while Gambia have nine which isn't bad, even considering five came in that one game against the Seychelles.

In total, five of Gambia's last seven games have seen three or more goals, while it's occurred in two of Comoros' four matches in World Cup qualifying.