Wednesday Football Tips: Garnas looks overpriced at 9/1 | OneFootball

Rosenborg v LillestromWednesday 21 August, 18:00Live on Betfair Live Video

My original plan of attack today was to target cards in the Copa Sudamericana.

Fortaleza v Rosario is a Brazil v Argentina clash, a rivalry which always seems to produce cards. It certainly did in last week's first leg with eight shown.

That game finished 1-1 so this should be highly competitive as the sides chase a quarter-final spot. Throw card-happy ref Esteban Ostojich into the mix and this one should catch fire.

Sadly, no card markets were available at time of writing - they should go up later, so it's worth checking back - and with the same issue in the Champions League qualifiers when it comes to cards and shots, I'm looking elsewhere.

The Champions League play-offs often tend to be tight affairs but I doubt that will be the case in Norway's sole Eliteserien game on Wednesday.

Leg 1: Both teams to score

It's a league in which over 2.5 goals has landed 58% of the time this season and these two sides are among the worst defensively.

Lillestrom have conceded 33 times in 18 games - the second-worst record in the division - while Rosenborg have let in only two fewer goals.

Eight of the last nine Lillestrom games have seen both teams score, while it's 10 of the last 12 when it comes to Rosenborg.

The one difference worth pointing out is that this game will take place behind closed doors after the original was abandoned due to a fan VAR protest which saw tennis balls, smoke bombs and even fishcakes thrown onto the pitch!

Still, I'm happy to put both teams to score down as the foundation for our Bet Builder before adding a value goalscorer pick.

Leg 2: Espen Garnas to score

The same approach failed to pay off yesterday but our scorer selection, Patrick Berg, did manage three shots so the theory was at least along the right lines.

This time around, Lillestrom defender Espen Garnas is the man who stands out as a big price.

The centre-back is a major set-piece threat and has scored three times in 12 league starts this season.

He plays for a team who take plenty of set-pieces - they are the fifth most-fouled team (of 16) and also sit fifth in the table for corners won. In what is one of Europe's best leagues in terms of corner numbers, Lillestrom average 5.5 per game.

With the hosts struggling to keep the goals out, I'm not sure Garnas should be 9/1 to find the net in this one.