Wednesday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets including 20/1 card double | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Jimmy The Punt tips player cards, the Asian handicap and both teams to score

Jimmy The Punt preview's Wednesday's Premier League action picking out his best bets via the Betfair Exchange and Betfair Sportsbook...

Aston Villa v Brighton Tip - No bet on out of form teams

Wednesday, 19:30Live on TNT Sports 3

Aston Villa won 11 games on the spin across November and December and 17 of 19 games stretching all the way back to the end of September.

They were always outperforming the underlying data though and it might have caught up to them now.

Villa are 16 points better off than their xPTS total for the campaign and have only won one of their last five in the Premier League, form which has seen them fall nine points behind Arsenal.

Opponents Brighton are struggling for consistency. They've only won twice since the end of November (D6 L5) and after the defeat at home to rivals Palace, you wonder if the fans' patience with Fabian Hurzeler is running out.

From a betting point of view, it is a watching brief for me at Villa Park.

Crystal Palace v Burnley Tip - Home team short odds despite winning last time out

Wednesday, 19:30Live on TNT Sports 5

Scott Parker cut a despondent figure after Burnley's 2-0 loss at home to West Ham on Saturday. It left the Clarets eight points in the Hammers' wake and 11 from safety with 13 games to play.

By comparison, opponents Crystal Palace will be in a more optimistic mood as they ended a run of nine matches without a win on Sunday with a 1-0 victory at rivals Brighton.

That said, it is hard to make a case for the Eagles at 1.58 though, not that I would want to get Burnley on side either.

Wednesday, 19:30Live on TNT Sports 4

At 1.86 with the Betfair Exchange, backing both teams to score is the bet at the Etihad. You might remember it cruised in the reverse at Craven Cottage as City edged a nine-goal thriller.

There's been an element of chaos to Pep Guardiola's side for almost two seasons now. Since the turn of the year, they have only kept four clean sheets in 12 games in all competitions with Sunderland, Newcastle, Wolves and Galatasaray the teams who failed to net.

During that sample, the Cityzens put 10 past Exeter in the FA Cup and squandered a two goal advantage to a despondent Tottenham.

Visitors Fulham will fancy their chances of getting amongst the goals as they've netted in each of their last 16 games in all competitions.

Nottingham Forest v Wolves - On the cards

Wednesday, 19:30Live on TNT Sports 6

Tim Robinson has the whistle at the City Ground - AKA the Premier League's most card-happy official.

Robinson has averaged 5.13 cards a game this season, dishing out a high of 11 cards in a game in the top flight so there could be a few yellows flashed here.

In terms of survival, this is a big game as well.

Wolves' days amongst England's elite are numbered, they are 1/5 to finish bottom with the Betfiar Sportsbook and they've lost their last three. But they are good for a card or two picking up 52Y and 2R cards this season (6th most in the league).

At 5/1, Adam Armstrong's price to be carded appeals.

He picked four up for Southampton in the first half of the season in the Championship and was booked on his Wanderers debut. In his last season in the top flight with the Saints, he had a cards per 90 average of 0.28.

At 16/5, I also think Matt Doherty is worth a punt to be carded.

Since returning to Wolves via Spurs and Atletico Madrid, he has picked up 12 cards in three seasons (0.27 cards per 90) making him value on Wednesday.

Naturally, the double appeals at 20/1.

Sunderland v Liverpool - Hosts never know when they're beaten

Wednesday, 20:15Live on TNT Sports 1

Sunderland can be backed at 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange with a +0.75 headstart on the Asian handicap.

The bet is paid out as a winner if the hosts get a result, half stakes loss if Sunderland lose by a goal and a full loss if Liverpool batter them.

I cannot see the latter.

The Reds will be pretty deflated after losing to Manchester City on Sunday, especially considering Arne Slot's side were a goal up heading into the final six minutes.

Dominik Szoboszlai was also controversially sent off in the 103rd minute and he has arguably been his side's stand out performer this term.

In the league, Liverpool have only won four away games, two of which came before mid-September. Interestingly, all four of those wins came against opponents who finished with 10-men or less and even then, the Reds only won one by more than a one goal margin.

The hosts are the only side in the Premier League yet to lose on their own patch this season and have taken 26 points from 12 games.

I also think it is worth a punt on Liverpool HT/ Sunderland FT at an industry best price of 45/1 with the Sportsbook.

The Black Cats rank second for points won after falling behind taking 16 in total.

Man City came from behind to beat Liverpool on Sunday, the Reds also dropped points against Burnley from a winning position recently.

It is a bit of a punt but this Sunderland side never know when they are beaten.

Recommended bets