What Boca need to qualify for the last 16

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La Número 12

·20 May 2026

What Boca need to qualify for the last 16

Boca’s draw against Cruzeiro at La Bombonera left Group D wide open. While waiting to see what happens this Thursday in Chile, we break down the different scenarios and what needs to happen on the final matchday for the Xeneize to advance in the Copa Libertadores.

The 1-1 draw against Cruzeiro at home left a bittersweet feeling in La Boca. Picking up points is always important on the international stage, especially to stay alive, but failing to take all three points at home significantly reduced the margin for error heading into the end of the group stage.

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With this partial result from Matchday 5, the standings shifted. However, to get the full picture, all eyes will be on Santiago, Chile this Thursday, May 21 at 9:30 p.m., when Universidad Católica hosts Barcelona of Ecuador.

Boca drew 1-1 amid controversial refereeing.

Boca currently sits in second place ahead of Universidad Católica. With both teams level on 7 points, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, and Xeneize has the edge after winning 2-1 in Chile in the opening matchday, with the final matchday to be played between the two sides.

Calculator in hand: What does Boca need?

The team’s future in the cup will be decided in a true final on the last matchday (Matchday 6), when it hosts Universidad Católica at La Bombonera. What Boca will mathematically need that night will depend entirely on what happens this Thursday between the Chileans and the Ecuadorians.

There are two possible scenarios:

If Universidad Católica wins or draws against Barcelona: This is the most complicated scenario, but also the most likely. If the Chileans pick up points (reaching 8 or 10 points), Boca will be forced to win on the final matchday no matter what. A home victory would take them to 10 points, move them ahead of Católica, and secure a place in the round of 16 (as group leader or runner-up, depending on Cruzeiro). A draw or a loss would eliminate Boca from the Libertadores and send them to the Copa Sudamericana playoff.
If Barcelona pulls off the upset in Chile: This result would be a huge relief. If the Ecuadorians win, Católica will remain on 7 points. In that case, a draw at La Bombonera would be enough for Boca to qualify. If they draw, both teams would finish on 8 points, but the regulations would send Boca through for having earned more points in the head-to-head matchups (4 points to the Chileans’ 1).

The die is cast. Now it’s time to wait for this Thursday’s result and get La Bombonera ready for another Copa night where Boca will have to leave everything on the field to stay alive in South America’s top club competition.