What could Spurs need to secure Premier League survival this season? | OneFootball

Tottenham remarkably find themselves just four points clear of the Premier League relegation zone with 11 games left to play of this season.

It has been a disastrous campaign for Spurs, who have won just seven of their 27 league games and have tasked Igor Tudor with keeping them in the division after deciding to sack Thomas Frank.

While their situation bares similarities to last season, in which Spurs finished a dreadful 17th, the reality was they were in little danger of going down.

The same cannot be said this season, however, and it is likely Spurs will need more points than those who have managed to stay up in previous seasons to secure survival.

Tudor’s 16th placed side currently have 29 points after 27 games. Nottingham Forest in 17th, meanwhile, are currently on 27 while West Ham in 18th have 25.

So what total might they need? We’ve had a look at previous seasons compared to this one.

2024/25

Former Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)

Spurs finished in 17th on 38 points last season. While that is a fewer total than some of those who have been relegated in previous years, they were in little danger of going down given the gap to those in the bottom three.

18th placed Leicester City finished on just 25 points. That is the same total the current 18th placed side, West Ham, have already recorded with 11 games still to go.

At this stage last season, Ipswich and Leicester in 18th and 19th had just 17 points – eight fewer than West Ham in 18th currently have and ten fewer than Forest in 17th.

Spurs, at this point last season, meanwhile, had 33 points, four more than they currently do.

2023/24

The Luton Town supporters acknowledge their players (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

The season prior saw the bottom three similarly struggle to make a go of survival. Luton Town and Burnley, in 18th and 19th respectively, went down with 26 and 24 points respectively.

Nottingham Forest in 17th finished on 32 points but could have stayed up with a lot less. After 27 games played, Forest and Luton had 20 and 21 points respectively.

2022/23

James Maddison after Leicester’s relegation (Photo by DARREN STAPLES/AFP via Getty Images)

The 2022/23 season, however, saw the relegated sides at least make a bigger challenge of staying up.

Leicester in 18th went down with 34 points and, like West Ham this season, had 25 points after 27 games. The 18th and 19th placed teams at that stage, West Ham and Bournemouth, had 24 points.

2021/22

18th placed side Burnley were relegated with 35 points in 2022, and after 27 games played had 21 points on the board.

What are the highest totals teams have gone down with?

West Ham were relegated with 42 points in 2003 (Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in a 20-team Premier League. They are Sunderland in 1996/97, Bolton in 1997/98 and West Ham 2002/03 – the latter going down with the highest ever total for a relegated team with 42 points.

No team in the last nine campaigns have earned 36 points and been relegated, and the last time 40 points was needed to stay up was back in the 2010/11 season. The highest needed since then was 38 in 2015/16.

What could Spurs need?

While it obviously cannot be said for sure, what is already a certainty is that this season will not be like the previous two, where teams could have survived without even hitting the 30-point mark.

Instead, this will be more comparable to the 2022/23 and 2021/22 campaigns, where the mid-30s were required to survive.

However, it could well be that Spurs need to reach the higher 30s to guarantee survival given the sides below them.

West Ham have been buoyed by their January signings and have seen a huge upturn in form, losing just one of the last six league games. While Forest’s form has been unimpressive, there have been signs in their Europa League win over Fenerbahce and unlucky defeat to Liverpool that new boss Vitor Pereira can get the results required.

Three wins from Spurs’ final 11 games, which would take them to 38 points, seems entirely feasible and would probably ensure survival. 38 points was enough to stay up in 24 out of 30 Premier League seasons. That goes up to 26 seasons for 39 points and 27 seasons for 40 points.