What Italy need for automatic World Cup qualification miracle | OneFootball

The Italy national team have already guaranteed a spot in the World Cup qualification play-offs ahead of Thursday evening’s game against Moldova, but require a miracle to overtake Norway into first place in Group I and qualify directly for the final tournament in the summer.

Here is what needs to happen for Italy to pull off an unlikely overtake.

What Italy need to overtake Norway into first place in Group I

The Azzurri have two games of World Cup qualification left to play: Against Moldova on Thursday evening, and against Norway on Sunday.

Italy are second ahead of kick-off against Moldova, on 15 points from six games.

UDINE – OCTOBER 14: Gianluca Mancini celebrates scoring his team’s third goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match against Israel at Stadio Friuli on October 14, 2025 in Udine. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Norway are top with 18 points from six games. Israel, third, have played one game more, and with their tally of nine points, are unable to finish any higher than their current position.

There are two ways for Gennaro Gattuso’s men to overtake Norway, although both require a big stroke of fortune.

Italy likely require Norway to drop points in their World Cup qualifier at home against Estonia, which kicks off a couple of hours before Moldova-Italy on Thursday evening. If that were to happen, Italy would claim top spot if they won their next two matches, against Moldova and Norway.

BERGAMO – SEPTEMBER 05: Gennaro Gattuso during the National anthems prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match against Estonia at Stadio di Bergamo on September 05, 2025 in Bergamo. (Photo by Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)

If Norway beat Estonia, Italy could still finish level on points with Norway, but would also require an enormous swing on goal difference.

As things stand on Thursday ahead of kick-off, Norway’s goal difference stands at +26, while Italy’s stands at +10. That means that the Azzurri will need to score, at a minimum, 17 goals over their next two matches, which could be even higher depending on the scoreline between Norway and Estonia on Thursday.