Who is the best forward in the Argentinian Primera Division – data analysis | OneFootball

In this data analysis, we will look for players who plays as a forward. We are looking for the forward with the best data of all the Argentina league.  This analysis contains statistics from players who played more than seven matches in the league.

After looking at important abilities for the position we will choose three players. These three players should be scouted further to get more insights into their style of play and how they could progress in the future. Also, we will see the three best under-23 forwards and how they are in comparison with all the forwards of the Argentina league.

XG and Goals

In this data analysis, we are going to see the relationship of the total goals scored so far this season with the individual xG of each player

As can be seen in the analysis, the players with the best goal and xG ratios are José Sand, a 39-year-old Lanús forward. Rafael Borré Colombian forward of River plate at 25 years old, a former player of both Atlético Madrid and Villarreal, both La Liga teams. Among these also appears Silvio Romero 31-year-old forward from Independiente.

Both Romero and Borré were the players with the highest goals scored in the championship, each with 12 goals, but if this statistic is related to xG, Borré should have scored 9.96 goals in the season and Romero 8.44 goals. What this data gives us is that they are strikers who score more goals than they should.

On the other hand, we can see how Sand is one of the forwards who scored the goals that were generated for him, since his goal statistics and his xG coincide, with 10 being the goals he has scored in the current season. Different is the case of Carlos Tevez, former Manchester City player rand Manchester United, who is in the same situation as Borre and Romero, since he has scored 9 goals in the season when, based on his xG data, there should have been scored 5.07 goals.

To clarify the players that their number of goals is greater than their xG data, it means that they have a good ability to score goals in unfavourable situations or that the average of the forwards could not have converted a goal.

Shots per 90 minutes and xG per 90 minutes

This analysis will show us the relationship that the average shot per 90 minutes has with the xG per 90 minutes of each player. With this, we will determine which player has more xG per shot in 90 minutes

Again we can see how Borré appears among the players who have the best relationship between the two statistics. This is because for 90 minutes he has an average of 2.4 shots and an xG of 0.63 per 90 minutes. In other words, every 2.4 shots have a 63% hit probability.

With similar data, two new players appear, which are Juan Lucero, a 28-year-old forward who currently plays in Defensa and Justicia and Ramón Ábila, a 30-year-old Boca Juniors forward. The latter has per 90 minutes 2.14 shots and an xG of 0.65, while Lucero has the same xG value for 90 minutes but with 2.61 shots per 90 minutes.

Taking into account these three forwards leaves us the conclusion that in case their shot per 90 average increases, their xG could increase proportionally and have a greater chance of scoring per 90.

On the other hand, we find the case of Hugo Silveira, a 26-year-old Uruguayan forward who plays for Patronato has an xG per 90 a little higher than the other three, 0.68 but with more number of shots per 90, 3.86.

Shot per 90 and non-penalty goals per 90

A relationship of data that we can use to confirm the previous data analysis is checking the average of shots per 90 related to the average of non-penalty goals per 90 (because analysing with the xG metric this increases its average due to the high possibility of a goal that has a penalty).

This data analysis provides us with information very similar to that provided by the last analysis, where the best three forwards from the last data remain as one of the best and with Silveira being the player with the most shots per 90 minutes and a good average of goals per 90.

Ábila, 0.71 non-penalty goals for 90 and 2.14 shots per 90. Lucero, 0.65 non-penalty goals for 90 and 2.61 shots per 90. Silveira, 0.59 non-penalty goals per 90 and 3.86 shots per 90.

Tevez appears with better data than those mentioned above, an average of non-penalty goals per 90 of 0.73 and an average of shots per 90 of 2.75. A new player who appeared in this analysis is 34-year-old River Plate forward Ignacio Scocco, who is the best player in relation to both data. He has a non-penalty goals per 90 of 0.78 and 2.88 shooting average per 90.

xG per 90 and xA per 90

Observing this data analysis we can differentiate two types of forwards that we are interested in analysing: those who have high participation in the construction of the offensive game but do not have a high weight in its completion, and the players who participate in both phases of the offensive game, that is, participating in the construction of the offensive game and ending it.

In the first group of forwards, we can analyse how Facundo Pizzini, 26-year-old Defensa and Justicia player is the forward who stands out the most in the construction of the game due to their high number of xA per 90 that they have individually. In the case of Pizzini, 0.42 xA per 90 while his xG per 90 is 0.17.

In the case of the strikers who participate in both phases of the offensive game, we can see that the same four players who stood out throughout the data analysis coincide again.

Lucero that within what is the construction is a little below the average, since the xA average of the entire super league is 0.10. His xA per 90 minutes is 0.08 but still, his xG is one of the highest in the league being 0.65. Therefore we can analyse that in a certain way it seeks to participate in the construction of the offensive game but its main task is to end it.

n the same side, we can find that Ábila, Borré, and Silveira are in the same situation since they have a high average of xA per 90 minutes comparing the league average and their xG per 90 minutes is one of the highest in the league.

To the known individual xG data of each one, we must add the xA, which of Borré is 0.15 per 90 minutes, Ábila, 0.22 per 90 minutes, and Silveira, 0.21 per 90 minutes.

Shortlist

To define this shortlist, the task was made quite easy since there were four players who throughout the data analysis positioned themselves in the highest raking of what was analysed.

Rafael Borre – At first, the most influential striker in all of Argentina league, not only because he was the top scorer of the season and that his great ability to define a game was analysed throughout the data analysis, taking into account his xG, his shots and its relationship with the number of goals, but we could also observe how he participates in the construction of the offensive game having a large number of xA superior to that of the Argentine league.

Ramón Ábila – The striker who became champion of the league with Boca Juniors had his great contribution in the same championship, since despite not standing out so much above the average of the offensive actions he was always above, which is why he shows his great importance in the offensive game in Boca Juniors.

Hugo Silveira – He is another player who appeared in all the data analyses that were carried out with great value in each one of them. Analysing in broad strokes, if he could improve his percentage of shots with the number of goal opportunities that originate in the match, he can maintain and exceed his own statistics of the current season.

Juan Lucero – The Defensa and Justicia striker, despite having good statistics regarding the generation of goal opportunities, must improve them so that these results are reflected in the number of goals at the end of the season.

Under-23 shortlist

As mentioned at the beginning of the data analysis, a shortlist will be made with under-23 players to analyze which are the best forwards in this age range, since the previously selected all were over 26 years old.

Nahuel Bustos – Forward of Talleres de Córdoba, 21 years old, is positioned as the best U-23 striker because he was the top scorer in this age range with nine goals in total and with an xG of 7.61.

From an average of 90 minutes per has 2.76 shots per 90 and an xG every 90 minutes of 0.40. Even if we remove his penalty kicks, his average shot per 90 remains with the same value and has a non-penalty per 90 of 0.48.

Maximiliano Romero – 21-year-old striker currently playing for Vélez Sarsfield but on loan from his PSV team, sets statistics similar to those of Nahuel Bustos. Since in the running of the season he converted 7 goals of which his xG was 6.96. His average shot per 90 minutes is 1.98 with an xG of 0.40 per 90, which these numbers are still maintaining, removing the data from penalty kicks since he has not executed any.

Conclusion

In this data analysis, the aim was to analyse the importance of the forwards in all phases of the offensive game, going from the end of it to construction. Since the Argentina league is one of the most competitive at the South American level and it is very important to see the influence of the forwards they have in it.

Taking into account their statistics and age, Rafael Borré and Nahuel Bustos are selected to continue being the best in the Argentine league for a long time, as long as they are not transferred before.