🏆 Who will win the Ballon d'Or? Mbappé, Rodri, Kane, Dembélé or... 🃏 | OneFootball

Who will win the Ballon d'Or? A question we’ve almost always had a ready answer for over the last 15 years. And if there were already people turning up their noses at Dembélé’s win in the 2024/2025 season, this year there will be plenty of unhappy people (almost everyone).

Because this season there hasn’t been one player clearly above the rest, or else — if there has been — he hasn’t managed to win almost anything. The balance between performances, club trophies and international success has never been this hard to figure out.

Kylian Mbappé

Zero trophies this season at Real Madrid. That alone would normally be enough to rule him out of the Ballon d'Or. And that’s how it seemed until June 16: then France began its World Cup and Kylian Mbappé started planting that doubt in our minds, with his goals, his fire and the composure of a champion under Paraguay’s kicks. 

In short, a World Cup worthy of an absolute champion: 10 goals in the competition, 22 in total, smashing Klose’s record and pulling clear of Messi (who we’ll talk about later). But if we take a step back, what do we remember from Mbappé’s season with Real Madrid? 42 goals, 15 of them in the Champions League.

Ballon d'Or numbers. And yet the trophy count stays at zero: did Real fail because of Mbappé, or did they come close thanks to him? There’s truth in both sides of that coin. And Luis Enrique would probably answer the same way, since on the day Mbappé left he said: "Today I will be a very rainy day, but it is also a beautiful day because you can feel a different kind of air". But what kind of air? The same one Spain breathed throughout the World Cup.

Harry Kane

If you’re looking for a self-made candidate (like the others, but starting from farther back), who then became a leader through experience, capable of scoring in ways he never thought possible and of battling throughout his career against the label of “loser”, then Harry Kane is your man. Oh, and he also scored 73 goals this season.

6 of those came at the World Cup, 2 of them in a true Royal Lion finish against DR Congo. Then came another goal against Mexico, one that will go down in history not only for its importance but for what he himself said about it: practically inaudible in the post-match interview, broken by everything he no longer had — energy, emotion. He probably lip-synced "Wonderwall", but oh well.

As for trophies, it was an excellent yet imperfect year. Bundesliga won in dominant fashion, German Cup won, Champions League semifinals, and 3rd place at the World Cup (above Mbappé). Could he have done more? But really... What else? 

Lionel Messi

Winning a Ballon d'Or without setting foot outside the US — World Cup qualifiers aside — would be ironic, and yet it’s possible because Lionel Messi is allowed feats beyond the ordinary. And sometimes even beyond what’s "fair", though that concept is debatable.

His MLS season was close to perfect: goals in bunches, assists galore, and a league title. But that matters little — or should matter little — for the Ballon d'Or. What matters is his World Cup: central, in every sense.

For Argentina, because his touch was on 12 of their 18 goals in the entire tournament (8 goals and 4 assists). In public opinion: "Mbappé has scored. What will Messi do?" In the eyes of opponents and even in the controversies: definitely overblown, but not entirely baseless. Favoritism? I don’t think so. Reverence? Definitely yes.

The final was the dividing line for the next Ballon d'Or, and it probably spared us from seeing it handed to a phenomenon who played 8 real matches in a year. Le Roi est mort, but where is the next one?

Ousmane Dembelé

That sense of deep admiration, and at the same time the absence of wonder, might suggest: "Another Ballon d'Or for Dembélé?" It could happen, because the current holder of the trophy showed up when PSG really needed him: 6 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 Champions League matches, including a penalty scored in the final. Let’s not forget it — that ball weighed a ton even through the screen, and he put it in the net.

He won the Ligue 1 MVP award in a way that made no sense: 10 goals in 22 matches, because Luis Enrique rests his stars in the league. In the Champions League, though, he wasn’t the best: Kvartskhelia took the award, rightly so. But he missed the World Cup and so seems out of the running: the world is unfair.

At the World Cup, we saw the same old limits and flashes again: he’s not the guest star, but he’s no longer a supporting player either. He dominated when he could, and faded when he had to carry the weight of an imperfect machine like France. Deschamps is not Luis Enrique, and the Ballon d'Or feels that most of all... maybe he’s not the favorite to win it again.

Lamine Yamal

Let’s take the Dembélé argument and flip it: the amazement Yamal inspires is the main reason to give him the Ballon d'Or. That’s why he finished 2nd last year. That’s why he could finish 1st this year. Because last season he won LaLiga and improved every number with Barça: more goals and more assists despite playing significantly less, without giving up the spectacle.

But that magic and efficiency weren’t enough to go further in the Champions League. And above all, they sagged at the World Cup: few superstar plays, just 1 goal, just 1 assist. And maybe it’s not even his fault, because that muscle issue right before the tournament may have cost him the Ballon d'Or. To convince France Football, you need everything: pragmatism, sparkle, trophies and iconic moments. Yamal only lacked the last of those.

Rodri

Rodri’s season can be summed up like this: a long run-up to the World Cup. Minutes in his legs, confidence building in his head, some muscle problems, a few dips (especially in crucial Champions League matches) and 2 trophies with Manchester City: the FA Cup and the EFL Cup. Not too bad, without Djokovic’s irony.

What was extraordinary was his World Cup: Spain’s metronome went back to setting the tempo with fluency and without mistakes, helping La Roja slowly boil their opponents, who gradually lost everything: possession, confidence, the ability to attack and, finally, the match itself. Spain’s victory was like Rodri’s game: not very flashy, gradual and inevitable. Few saw it at the start, no one disputed it at the finish line.

But is that enough for the Ballon d'Or? If absolute quality and international trophies are what matter, yes. If the whole season is judged, absolutely not. Rodri does, however, have the same advantage that allowed him to win in 2024: there are many candidates in the running, and back then Vinicius and Bellingham took votes off each other. This time, that effect will be even stronger.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

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