Who will win the Liga MX Apertura 2025? | OneFootball

The first-half of the Mexican football season is heading towards its conclusion with a host of sides still in contention to end the year at the top.

Reigning champions Toluca became the first side to secure their place in the Apertura playoffs, but it’s likely that we will see more earn their spot over the coming days.

As Matchday 15 draws to a close, just three points separate the top five teams, with all the sides picking up eye-catching results since the season started back in July.

Which are the top five sides that stand a chance of winning the Liga MX Apertura 2025?

5. Club América

No side has ever won more Liga MX titles than Las Águilas, who find themselves in fourth place prior to Matchday 16. Manager André Jardine has a taste for silverware, lifting three consecutive Liga MX titles between 2024-2025, but cracks have begun to show as they look to return to the top of the podium.

A major concern for the Liga MX Clausura runner’s-up is that they have slipped up against their fellow title rivals so far this season. América needed two late goals to rescue a point against Monterrey back in September. One week earlier they fell in the Clásico de los Clásicos against a struggling Chivas side. Then two weeks ago they watched their lead against Cruz Azul disappear as they suffered their second league defeat.

For a side with a reputation for handling big occasions, these performances raise a lot of questions. The one saving grace is that Las Águilas are hard to break down. Along with Tigres, they have the best defensive record. In campaigns gone by, Mexico’s most decorated team has been credited for improving as the season progressed, often playing their best football when it matters, in La Liguilla.

América merch on sale outside the Azteca. Photo by the author.

4. Monterrey

Monterrey started the season like a house on fire, but have stumbled in recent months, slipping down into fifth place. A particularly crushing blow was that 6-2 defeat to Toluca in late September.

A side that has caught global attention for their marquee signings over recent years, Los Rayados have earned respect, but will need a strong showing in the next two games to generate momentum in the postseason.

Monterrey always poses a threat with a natural goalscorer like German Berterame; he’s the league’s second best with nine goals in 14 matches. But it’s their defensive record which will haunt them, having leaked the most goals of any of the top 10 teams in the league.

That 2 – 0 loss to Cruz Azul last Saturday has put them up against it before this weekend’s anticipated fixture against city-rivals Tigres in the Clásico Regio. They finish the season on the road at Chivas.

If they can pick up valuable points from those final games, Doménec Torrent’s side might slip into the top four, and get some steam heading into the playoffs.

3. Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul earned the most points of any side across the Liga MX Apertura or Clausura during the 2024/25 season and has maintained its position as one of the strongest teams in the league.

Last season’s CONCACAF Champions Cup winners took time to adjust following the signing of new manager Nicolas Larcámon, but have remained a difficult team to beat.

Playing a fast-paced, quick-passing, and relentless style, La Máquina are one of just two teams with a single defeat, in their case a 2-0 loss to Tijuana on Matchday 11.

One thing that stands out about Los Azules is their squad depth. In their 2-1 win over Club América in the Clásico Joven, they were able to bring on the likes of last season’s Champions Cup Golden Boot winner Angel Sepúlveda and Ignacio Rivero, who scored the eventual game-winner.

As every campaign passes, Cruz Azul gain more experience, despite always getting close to the title, it continues to evade them, but sooner or later, they will get back to the top of Mexican football. However, will the Apertura 2025 be their time?

Tifo on display at a Cruz Azul match. Photo by the author.

2. Tigres

Tigres have quietly been going about their business, but deserve credit for their approach to the Apertura. Since their Matchday 5 loss to Club América, Tigres have gone eleven games unbeaten and have climbed to second in the league. The one thing holding them back is the current record of five draws, especially against lower table teams like Querétaro, Chivas and Mazatlán.

Los Universitarios striker Juan Brunetta has hit a golden run of form. He’s struck eight goals, six of them in the past five games, including a recent hat-trick against Necaxa.

Prior to the start of the season, few would have considered Tigres to be a major player in the Apertura, but they have steadily put themselves in a position ready to compete, even recording a major 4-3 win against Toluca on Matchday 3.

1. Toluca

This season’s favorites to lift the Liga MX Apertura are the reigning champions, Toluca. Much like their performances in the Clausura, Los Rojos Diablos have stood out as the league’s best.

What sets Toluca apart from the rest of the league is their ruthlessness in front of goal. With Liga MX’s top scorer, Paulinho, leading the line and last season’s Player of the Season and current assists leader, Alexis Vega, providing the service, the duo have been a nightmare for defences, driving Toluca to the best attacking record in Mexico. But Vega’s hamstring injury last time out may dent their hopes of going back-to-back.

As mentioned, their six goals against Monterrey have been their standout performance so far, but there have been other teams who have been on the receiving end of high-scoring games with Santos Laguna, Querétaro and León all conceding four at the hands of Antonio Mohamed’s side.

One matter of concern will be their record against the stronger sides in the league, suffering losses to both Tigres and Cruz Azul, albeit in close-fought encounters.

As the regular season draws to a close, it’s hard to see any other side challenging Toluca for the title, but we have seen enough to indicate that it will be far from an easy ride for the reigning champions.

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