Who will win the Serie A 2025/2026? | OneFootball

The 2025/26 Serie A season is in full swing, and the title race is proving extremely tight. After six matchdays, Napoli and AS Roma share the lead on 15 points, with AC Milan (13), Inter Milan (12) and Juventus (12) all within three points of the top.

Napoli are the defending champions and were expected to be strong again, but so far Roma have surged, Milan have found form under new leadership, and even perennial powers Inter and Juve have shown vulnerability.

This congested table means that any of the five “giants” could realistically claim the Scudetto, and the unpredictable mix of results has “shredded” traditional pre-season predictions. In short, “for the sports betting expert, this complexity presents a difficult but highly rewarding landscape” – every week brings new twists.

Tight Standings and Key Stats

An official Lega Serie A report confirms the tight standings: Roma and Napoli sit top of the table before the break, with Juventus, Milan, and Inter following closely behind. Napoli and Roma each have 15 points; Milan has 13; and Inter and Juventus have 12 apiece. Only three points separate these five teams, an unusually narrow margin early in the season. Napoli are one of the favorites – they won the title last season and have carried strong form into the new campaign – but they have already dropped points. Roma, by contrast, have had a remarkable turnaround after a disappointing 2024/2025, and sit level on points with the champions.

Offensively, Inter Milan have been the most prolific early on. They have scored 17 goals in six games (an average of almost 3 per game) and boast the league’s best goal difference (+9). However, Inter have also lost two matches, showing that they can be caught out defensively. Juventus, meanwhile, remain undefeated but have drawn three times, which has kept them level on points despite their consistency.

AC Milan have been solid; winger Christian Pulisic is one of the top scorers with 4 goals. Napoli and Roma have competitive squads too, but have each dropped surprising points against lower-ranked teams. Even the newly promoted clubs have made an impact: Sassuolo, Pisa and Cremonese (all promoted this season) have managed draws or wins against top sides, illustrating how unpredictable the table is.

Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini and Milan’s Christian Pulisic currently share the scoring lead with 4 goals each. Given these mixed performances, analysts are cautious. As one commentator put it, “the sports betting expert finds this complexity… highly rewarding” because every match could reshuffle the standings. In short, no team has pulled away yet, and it truly feels like five legitimate title contenders are slugging it out at the top. For more updates, insights, and analysis on sporting events and betting trends, be sure to check out the latest news on ThePlayoffs News.

Top Contenders

Napoli – The Champion’s Challenge

Napoli began the season as favorites after claiming the 2024/25 title. They have a strong, deep squad and are playing with confidence at the Diego Maradona Stadium. So far Napoli have beaten most of the mid-table sides, but they stumbled at Roma (a 1-1 draw) and have been inconsistent in defense. If Napoli can tighten up at the back and rely on stars like Giacomo Raspadori, Victor Osimhen and Piotr Zieliński, they are well-placed to defend their crown. Bookmakers still favor Napoli: most list them as the shortest odds for Scudetto (around +100 to +160 on the outright market). In betting terms, Napoli remain the reference point for the title race.

Inter Milan – Attack vs. Defense

Inter have one of the most potent attacks in Europe – averaging nearly 3 goals per game – thanks to stars like Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram. The data shows that their offense is elite (17 goals in 6 games). However, manager Simone Inzaghi’s side has conceded surprisingly freely (two losses already), raising questions about their balance. Bookmakers list Inter as roughly +275 (bet 100 to win 275) to +320 on the championship, shorter odds than Roma despite Roma having more points. Many experts view Inter as third-favorites. If Inzaghi can tighten the defense, Inter’s firepower could carry them to the title. But for now they remain in a logjam just behind the leaders.

Juventus – Consistently Inconsistent

Juventus are undefeated after six rounds (4 wins, 2 draws) but have struggled to win convincingly. They began the season well, benefitting from a weakened Milan side, but their tendency to draw has left them 3 points off the lead. Coach Igor Tudor has relied on veterans like Dusan Vlahović and Manuel Locatelli, and the defense looks solid. Historically dominant with 36 Serie A titles, Juve have one of the strongest squads. Oddsmakers list Juventus as +700 to +800 outsiders for the title, longer odds than Napoli or Inter. At mid-season, Juve will need to start winning more frequently. If even one of the five leaders falters, Juve’s steady consistency could pay off.

AC Milan – The Dark Horse

AC Milan have quietly matched the top teams on points. They were eighth last year but have a new coach and an improved squad. American Christian Pulisic (4 goals so far) leads their attack. Milan is also historically strong at home: they share the San Siro stadium with Inter and often draw big support.

Despite this, Milan has dropped points against mid-table teams. Manager Massimiliano Allegri will want more consistency. Betting markets have Milan at about +1000 on the title. If no clear winner emerges from the top four, Milan could sneak up and grab the championship on goal difference or head-to-head tiebreakers, given their positive goal differential.

AS Roma – The Surprise Package

Roma have been one of the surprises of the season. Under new manager Gian Piero Gasperini, they scored a stunning win over Juventus in the first matchday and have climbed to joint-first. The team plays energetic, attacking football, and captain Lorenzo Pellegrini and forward Matias Soulé have been in excellent form. Gasperini, who won titles with Atalanta, has revitalized Roma’s defense and style. After finishing 7th last season, Roma sit level with Napoli at 15 points. Oddsmakers were skeptical early on – Roma were +700 to +1000 underdogs for the title – but the team’s form may force bookmakers to shorten those odds soon. If Roma maintain consistency, they could very well be lifting the Scudetto.

Other Teams

Lazio and Atalanta were in the top five earlier but have since slipped. Inter’s plus-nine goal difference is currently the best, highlighting how close the margins are. Newly promoted Cremonese have even surprised a few top sides – a classic “underdog story”. Meanwhile, traditional giants like Napoli, Juventus, and Roma will be expected to reassert themselves as the season progresses. As the Legaseriea.it site notes, games after the international break will be crucial for the title contenders.

Betting Odds & Expert Analysis

Bookmakers’ futures odds align with the tight table. Napoli are listed as clear favorites (around +100 to +160), reflecting their status as reigning champions and top performers. Inter comes next (+275 to +320) despite having the third-shortest odds, showing that bookmakers respect their firepower. Roma is farther back at roughly +700 to +1000, while Juventus and Milan are even longer shots (around +1000 or more). In pure betting terms, no firm conclusion has emerged: the odds imply that Napoli would be considered heavy favorites if the race were settled, but the slim point gaps mean there is great value on any of the top five.

The Italian gambling regulator (ADM) requires licensed firms to publish their odds openly, and sites like SNAI (a major Italian bookmaker) actively promote bonuses to attract bettors. For example, SNAI’s current sports promotion code offers up to €1,000 in betting bonus plus extra casino credits. (New SNAI customers using the promo can also get a 500€ slot bonus.) Such welcome offers are common: ThePlayoffs even has a dedicated page listing SNAI’s latest bonus code and its terms. Similarly, SNAI has a full mobile app for live betting. According to ThePlayoffs, William Hill and AdmiralBet are among the best betting apps available, both fully licensed by ADM and offering user-friendly interfaces and live streaming. These apps let bettors easily follow odds and place wagers on every match of the Serie A season.

The opinions of experts and analytics sites reflect the on-field drama. For instance, a recent piece on TheFootballFaithful (an Everton-oriented sports site) notes that despite Roma’s hot start, bookmakers remain skeptical and still favor Napoli heavily. Many pundits stress that the next 4–6 matchdays will be decisive. If any of the “big five” falter in the coming weeks, the bookies will adjust odds accordingly. It’s also often pointed out that goal difference and head-to-head results may ultimately decide the title in such a close race – something bettors keep a close eye on.

Who Will Win?

All signs point to a battle among the established elites. Napoli has the pedigree and current form to win again, but they must stop dropping easy points. Roma has momentum and is playing the house money as the surprise team. Inter’s attack is lethal, but they need defensive consistency. Juventus must find more wins instead of draws. Milan remains a dark horse with a favorable goal difference.

Given the current state, Napoli edges the others on paper (as bookmakers suggest), especially if they rediscover their championship-winning consistency. However, at this early stage the title is still very much up for grabs. If one of the other four catches fire (or if Napoli stumbles), it could go to any of them. Bettors will want to watch upcoming fixtures closely – for example, any Napoli–Roma or Milan–Inter clashes (all of which will occur later) could be six-point swings.

In the end, the title race is so close that it may come down to form in the final rounds or even fine details like goal differential. For now, enthusiasts can rely on authoritative sources and official news (e.g. the Lega Serie A site) for schedules and official statistics. But on the weekend, it’s the pitch performance that will ultimately decide “who will win the Serie A 2025/2026.” Only time – and the next dozen games – will tell which contender will emerge as the champion.

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