Why Are Southampton Finding Form Now – And Is It Too Late? | OneFootball

With just 11 games remaining, the end of the EFL Championship season draws nearer. Southampton, unbeaten in 9, are finally gaining consistent results under Tonda Eckert’s management.

After the many ups and downs of this campaign, why are the Saints finding form now — and could it be too late for a play-off push?

Formation Change

Despite switching to four defenders, Southampton have boasted far more defensive solidity than their prior 3/5-back hybrid. Since their structural transition, which kicked off their unbeaten run, Eckert’s men have accumulated four clean sheets and an average of over two goals per 90.

In terms of points per game, Eckert sits on 1.9 – the same as Russell Martin during the 23/24 promotion campaign. It raises questions of whether Southampton would be further up the table if Eckert had been at the helm from the start of the season. By tightening the system – with the full-backs tucking in and the 10 (often Finn Azaz) pressing with the striker, forming a 4-4-2 out of possession – Southampton can take offensive risks with their front four, without risking defensive structure if caught on the transition.

Defenders

Both centre-backs (Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Jack Stephens) have been performing at their best together. The experience and composure of Stephens combined with the passing range and physicality of Harwood-Bellis has provided Eckert with assurance. The addition of James Bree, however, may be the most significant factor in this improvement.

His reintroduction has not only provided goals (three in the past three to be exact), but also the platform for the structure to work. The Saints lacked options at right-back with either Elias Jelert or Mads Roerslev injured. Bree has come in and started each league game. Instant trust was shown as he came in against Portsmouth. A huge derby but one that he handled perfectly, featuring the entire 90 minutes and rewarding Eckert’s trust with a man-of-the-match-worthy display.

The January Window

On paper, losing Adam Armstrong was a massive blow. However, his form dried up as the January window approached, with his last goal contribution an assist against Coventry in December. He had just 18 months remaining on his contract and Southampton evidently needed more physicality up top. Striker Cyle Larin was brought in on loan as a replacement.

The Canadian has already scored two goals and his profile suits what the Saints need – an alternative to Ross Stewart. In build-up, Larin is the escape option. When the opposition press is effective or the Saints have purposely dragged them out, long balls have been played to Larin in hopes of him holding it up and laying it off. His hold-up play has so far exceeded expectations, being able to go toe to toe with defenders and often maintain possession when it is played long.

With both him and Stewart, the Saints have two physical profiles capable of playing back to goal. Larin sits in the 66th percentile for aerial duels won among other forwards. Providing another option from set-pieces and crosses is pivotal since these are areas the Saints are looking to score more from, and Larin is a capable threat.

Gavin Bazunu was pivotal during build-up. His distribution on the ball is second to none in the Championship. However, his consistently poor goalkeeping metrics were rightly scrutinised by the Southampton fanbase. As January came round, Eckert had reportedly made it clear he wanted a new number 1. In came Daniel Peretz.

The 25-year-old was signed on loan with an option to buy in the summer. Already, his impact has been huge. Conceding just eight, he’s achieved a 67% save rate, just 0.89 goals per 90 and operating in the 88th percentile for clean sheets per 90.

There was another objective in this window though: unloading player wages. Players like Joe Aribo, Damion Downs, Ronnie Edwards and Ryan Fraser simply weren’t getting the necessary gametime to warrant staying. With the additional permanent sale of Armel Bella-Kotchap, Southampton were able to successfully trim their squad, allowing incoming signings to come in and have an immediate impact.

Southampton sit seventh, four points shy of Wrexham. Looking further, the Saints play both Ipswich and Wrexham with just four days apart from each other. This pair of Easter clashes is pivotal. If the Saints can consistently keep up with Wrexham in the meantime, then come out victorious in these two games, securing a play-off position is viable.

Yet, Southampton haven’t beaten a side that sits in the top six as of now, excluding Wrexham. Their inability to beat the top sides has held them back. But their recent turn in form and improvements at both ends of the pitch show potential. Whether the players step up in big moments will highlight if they’re ready to push on.