Why is Canada so cursed at the Concacaf Gold Cup? Look at a map. | OneFootball

There were a lot of factors that contributed to Canada's stunning exit to Guatelama in the quarterfinals at the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup.

There were indeed injuries, before the tournament to Alphonso Davies and during the quarterfinal to Jonathan David, not to mention others.

There was also probably a miscalculation in terms of mentality. Manager Jesse Marsch's at-times spicy pre-tournament rhetoric probably did more harm than good to the group attitude. Jacob Shaffelburg's overzealous effort ultimately led to his side playing the second half down a man.

But there's probably another reason that Canada has struggled to match the United States and Mexico in the region's biennial international championship: Geography.

What the numbers say

Soccer has among the strongest home-field advantages in all team sports. Home teams won 51% of matches in Concacaf World Cup qualifying in the 2022 cycle, and so far in the 2026 cycle have won 52% of games.

Since the late 1990s, the U.S. has played all of its Gold Cup matches on its home soil. Meanwhile, Mexico has played all of its matches in stadiums filled overwhelmingly by its own fans in cities with heavy Mexican-American populations.

Canada occasionally is afforded the luxury of a single home game during the tournament, as it was in its Group B opener this year. But most of its games are played on U.S. soil, at best before somewhat indifferent crowds but more often in environments supporting the opponent, as was the case in Sunday's 1-1 draw against Guatemala in Minneapolis.

Not a hall pass

This shouldn't let the Canucks completely off the hook, of course. Their inability to not even get beyond the quarterfinals still represents a considerable underachievement, even when factoring in the influence that home field -- or a lack of it -- can bring.

And theoretically, the advantage Guatemala received from crowd support yesterday shouldn't be as strong as the true home-field edge in a qualifying environment, when the away side is also dealing with the burdens of travel and unfamiliar environments that the home side isn't.

But if the future of Concacaf is like the present, where Mexico, the United States and Canada are all relatively equal, you would still expect Canada to win the tournament less often, perhaps two out of 10 times while the USA and Mexico won four each.

That's worth remembering in the unavoidable examination of what went wrong for Marsch and company as they try to correct mistakes ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Not to mention the fact that Canada will be able to rely on a true home-field advantage for next year's group games.