Why Leeds will go down over Tottenham, Kinsky case study, and f*** the celebrity circus in the EFL | OneFootball

The Mailbox reckons Leeds United are the most likely club to take 18th place in the Premier League as Tottenham will ‘wake up soon’.

Plus, we have an Antonin Kinsky case study after his nightmare against Atletico Madrid, why only three clubs are likely to win the Champions League and some are not happy with Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney doing alternative commentary of Wrexham versus Swansea.

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Goalkeepers, Confidence, and the Kinsky Case Study

Watching Antonín Kinský against Atlético Madrid was a reminder of something that rarely gets discussed properly outside goalkeeping circles: confidence is not just helpful for a goalkeeper — it is the position’s operating system.

When a striker loses confidence, he might snatch at chances or hesitate in the box. When a defender loses confidence, he might drop a yard deeper or play it safe. But when a goalkeeper loses confidence, the entire defensive structure starts to wobble because the goalkeeper’s decisions affect everything: positioning, command of the area, communication, distribution, and even how brave the back line feels.

Kinský’s performance was a textbook example of that erosion happening in real time.

Early in the match, you could see the hesitation. Crosses that normally would be claimed were punched. Punches that should have been confident became half-measures. His starting positions looked uncertain — sometimes a step too deep, sometimes oddly aggressive. And the moment a goalkeeper starts second-guessing himself, the whole game speeds up around him.

Goalkeeping is the one position where doubt multiplies instantly. A striker can miss three chances and still score the fourth. A goalkeeper doesn’t get that luxury. One moment of uncertainty can spiral because the next decision arrives within seconds.

You could see it in the body language. The shoulders drop slightly. The set position becomes rigid instead of reactive. Instead of reading the game, the goalkeeper begins anticipating mistakes — his own.

And the cruel thing is that confidence for a goalkeeper is rarely rebuilt during a game. Once it slips, every action becomes heavier. A routine catch feels like a test. Every shot feels like an exam.

It reminded me of that famous line from Rocky Balboa: “It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.” For goalkeepers, that resilience is everything. They live in a psychological environment where mistakes are public, immediate and often decisive.

The best goalkeepers — the Buffons, Neuers, van der Sars — have that almost irrational certainty about them. Even after mistakes, they still attack crosses, still command their area, still play with the same authority. Confidence for them isn’t just form; it’s identity.

What Kinský’s night showed is how fragile that identity can be when things start going wrong.

And it’s why goalkeeping might be the most psychological position in football. You’re the last line of defence, the first point of attack, and the only player on the pitch whose mistake usually ends up on the scoreboard.

When confidence goes, everything goes with it. Gaptoothfreak, Man. Utd., New York (René Higuita was oozing confidence when he made that scorpion save back in ’95)

EPL is tougher, if not better

There/s a lot of noise implying Arsenal won’t be worthy winners of the Prem this year, if they manage to cross the line ahead of the rest. And, of course, this was given a boost with this week’s performances in Europe. Summarized as, the Prem is really shit, so that makes Arsenal, who may win the Prem pretty shit too.

The first ‘myth’ is that a league can only get stronger because the historic best teams are stronger – in this case, trashing teams in Europe – is just one perspective.

But what if it’s because the rest of the league—the other 14 teams—have improved dramatically? Making it much harder for the ‘best’ teams to dominate, to play the way they want to, and not force them to change style or find new ways to win.

At the same time, having to play tougher league games throughout the season takes its toll on those ‘best’ teams. It’s no coincidence that the English teams in the CL were winning easily and securing many of the top-8 positions in the CL first round while they were still relatively fresh. But the winter season is always tough in the Prem – something Klopp discovered.

If you watch any games from the other top 5 leagues in Europe, you can see how relatively uncompetitive these leagues are. The Premier League money gap is so huge that teams guaranteed relegation continue to fight all the way because the rewards are substantial, but the downside is a massive chasm. Relegated in Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, or Ligue 1? The gap isn’t so great. Maybe going down for one season isn’t so bad.

The reality is that any team that wins the Premier League deserves it. Being better than the rest over 38 games, playing everyone home and away, living with the same rules and yet still managing to top the league. And generally doing well across 4 fronts too.

The Premier League is definitely tougher. It makes it a slog for the teams vying for the top, especially with almost constant midweek football. Time to lay off Arsenal (not a fan.) Paul McDevitt

Place your bets!

I was having a chat with friends about football over drinks (as you do), and the subject of predicting the Champions League winner for 2026 inevitably came up. I decided to do some digging which has thrown up some pretty interesting observations, the simplest of which was that in order to win, you most likely needed to have been at least semi-finalists the year before.

Here’s the run-down of the winners from the last 10 years, and their final positions the year prior to winning.

2025: PSG (semi-finalists in 2024) 2024: Real Madrid (semi’s in ’23) 2023: Manchester City (semi’s in ’22) 2022: Real Madrid (semi’s in ’21) 2019: Liverpool (semi’s in ’18) 2018: Real Madrid (winners in ’17) 2017: Real Madrid (winners in ’16) 2016: Real Madrid (semi’s in ’15)

Only twice in the past 10 years has any team won without being at least semi-finalists the year before.

2021: Chelsea (R16 in 2020, R16 in 2019)

2020: Bayern (R16 in 2019, semi’s in 2018)

Even then, Bayern had form by being semi-finalists two years prior, while Chelsea were the only real dark-horses, having gone out in the Round of 16 both years prior to winning.

Of the teams remaining this year, 3 of them were in the semi-finals last year – Arsenal, Barcelona and eventual winners PSG.

If you’re a betting person, there’s an 80% chance your eventual winners will be one of these 3 teams (based on 8 of the last 10 winners being semi-finalists the year prior). There’s a 10% chance of it being Bayern who were quarter-finalists in 2025 and semi-finalists in 2024, slightly bettering their own form prior to winning in 2020. And there’s a 10% chance of it being Real Madrid due to the sheer weight of experience (quarters in 2025, winners in 2024, semi’s in 2023, winners in 2022, semi’s in 2021), not to mention being champions 5 times in the last 10 years.

Anyone else is going to be the longest shot underdogs simply due to their lack of experience in handling the pressure at the business end of the tournament. Sanjit (would love a Bodø/Glimt underdog story though!) Randhawa, Kuala Lumpur.

The Case For Relegation

There are 4 teams in realistic danger of relegation, and so I wanted to make the case for each of them as I think it’s quite an intriguing battle down there. I find it really hard to make a convincing case that any of them will go down, though of course, one has to.

We can delve in to the underlying stats and tactics etc of each team, but those things should only be considered in things like Champions League two-legged ties, and top of the table conversations; the teams at the bottom aren’t deserving of those kind of discussions as relegation is a vibes-based thing.

West Ham: Currently 18th The FA Cup 3rd Round weekend was a turning point — it was when Taty and Pablo came in, and enabled Summerville to start being good and let Nuno do what he wants to do with his front line. Plus Disasi being the no-nonsense antidote to the all-nonsense Kilman. Before that point, 14 points from 21 games. Since then 14 points from 8 games. That’s 1.75 points a game over a good sample size, translating to 66.5 points over a season. Only 2 losses away at Chelsea and Liverpool, scoring twice in each (though admittedly conceding 3 & 5). Everyone looking happy in a group photo in the dressing room post Brentford FA Cup win. Everyone seems to be pulling in the right direction. They’ve clicked, they’ll be fine, on that form could even bridge the gap up to 14th. Admittedly I’m a fan, but I know the patterns of our club, and this mirrors early days of Moyes Mk.2.

Forest: Currently 17th Since Vitor has come in they’ve only picked up a single point from 3 games in the league. But I truly think they pass the eye test. Losing to Brighton isn’t ideal, but their performance in the Liverpool loss was actually excellent, and then to get a score draw away at the Etihad is really impressive. Plus that handsome Fenerbahce away win. I think that once their fixtures start to get a bit nicer that they’ve got enough to get themselves maybe 3 wins, taking them to 37pts, and maybe the odd draw might keep them safe. Of their remaining 9 games I’d only look at Chelsea and United away as being games that they can probably write off. The others (even Villa, Fulham and Bournemouth) are the kind of games that scrapping teams will consider winnable with backs against the wall.

Spurs: Currently 16th Honestly, Spurs going down would bring me happier tears than when Leicester won the league. I’d even love to see Arsenal win the league to compound their misery, and for it all to happen on May Bank Holiday so fans of all other London clubs can gather for a celebratory drink at Seven Sisters station. They’re on their worst ever run of form in the Premier League Era, and their worst winless streak in 91 years. So it would seem to make them favourites. However…again, based on vibes and history, whenever I want something bad to happen to a Big 6 team, they all eventually find some muscle memory and turn it around quite quickly. After all, in 2019 they decreed that they were too good for the Champions League and tried to break away. So I’m expecting them to wake up soon and remember who they are; they could easily beat Brighton, Wolves and Leeds.

Leeds: Currently 15th Leeds have been just about touching competent all season, not ever being bad, not ever particularly catching the eye for being great. They were heavily tipped to go back down due to A) Daniel Farke, and B) their own recent history. So this kind of quiet, steady competence is actually really promising for Leeds and their fans should be happy. But…it’s not been enough to get them in amongst that mid-table set; they’re 6 points away from the team above them, and one game week could see them in the drop zone albeit with a big GD swing. In a relegation run-in you need a bit of momentum, and their good and bad results have been spread too thinly all season, and I don’t know if they’ll find the fight to pull themselves fully clear. Plus they have to play 2 of the others, both of which are seeing Leeds as winnable.

Honourable Mention: Brighton, Currently 14th They’re 9 points above it. But Hurzeler is a bit of a snivelling dweeb, and no one realistically knows or cares about them or any of their players; as far as I’m concerned, they’re simply a bunch of baristas who play midfield. Their results are always impossible to predict, and always have been, they’re basically just a CPU-controlled team that only exist to provide notable results against more popular teams (eg the odd battering of United, or letting Palace play themselves back in to form). Their remaining games are not easy. By their very nature, they could win/draw/lose any of them, and no one other than their fans will notice until GW37.

Final Verdict: While 4 of the teams are not easy to like, so will provide a lot of enjoyment for neutrals if they go down, it wouldn’t surprise me if Brighton, the team no one cares about, go down (see also Man City always winning and no one caring). BUT — it will ultimately be Leeds United who I’m putting my fiver on to go down. The others have momentum or muscle memory, and Brighton’s week-by-week random dice-roll results will see them through. Sam

F*** the celebrity circus

I’ve just seen that Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney will be doing an alternative commentary for the Wrexham vs Swansea game on Sky Sports.

Apparently the normal commentary will still exist on another channel, which is something at least, but the fact Sky are even doing this tells you exactly where football broadcasting is drifting. The Wrexham story has already become more about a television show than a football club, and this feels like the next step in turning actual matches into a ridiculous celebrity sideshow.

It’s already embarrassing enough that whenever Wrexham appear on television we have to endure the presenters rolling out the same tired lines about how “a touch of Hollywood has arrived in [insert town here] today.” The football almost feels like a supporting act to the narrative.

Wrexham’s owners are actors, Swansea now has Snoop Dogg involved, and Sky are leaning straight into the spectacle because they know it pulls in viewers who might never normally watch a Championship game. From a marketing point of view I understand why they’re doing it. From a football point of view it’s embarrassing.

It’s easy to laugh this off as a novelty, but things like this have a habit of becoming normal once broadcasters realise it generates clicks and attention. Today it’s Reynolds and McElhenney commentating on their own club. Tomorrow it’ll be influencer watch-alongs, celebrity pundit panels, and whatever other gimmick someone in a production meeting thinks will play well on social media.

Football used to manage perfectly well with commentators who actually did the job professionally and broadcasts that focused on the game rather than whoever happens to have bought a small stake in a club. This sort of stunt just reinforces the feeling that the sport is slowly being repackaged as entertainment content rather than treated as a competition.

Perhaps I’m just old-fashioned, but it’s hard not to feel that this is only the beginning. Ant MUFC (Awaiting the day Sky hand Avram Glazer and Jim Ratcliffe the microphones for a United game)

Yes and no

System over individuals you say? Last season two direct free kicks scored for the first time ever and none since by a 100mil midfielder?

When there is high intensity and physicality, there is no room for technical prowess. A little bit of slowness is needed sometimes. Especially this season, all teams in pl are playing in a similar way so your best game might be conditioned to something else. Similar to a top team in the French league. Sure, competition might be higher but it is on a different game.

Or maybe I’m wrong. It was indeed the system which made Rice punch two holes. Similar to the system which had Pitarch, Diaz making rare starts at home give us a win.

Of all the matchups, Arsenal were the most outplayed. Liverpool a close second. Madrid fan

Transfer merry-go-round

As we already have the managerial merry-go round, I thought it an excellent suggestion by Mark for a managerial transfer window.

We could see Arse-ball binned in the January transfer window by say Don Carlo, to get them over the line.