Why Villa are PL title ‘dark horses’ and not relegation candidates as Emery overcomes damning factor | OneFootball

Suddenly, Aston Villa have gone from surprise candidates for relegation to ‘dark horses’ for the Premier League title. It’s been quite the turnaround…

As Aston Villa sat in the Premier League relegation zone after five games of the 2025/26 campaign, there were fears that the Unai Emery era was coming to an end.

Speculation over an Emery sacking was premature and has since proved to be wildly misjudged as their early-season woes were never his doing.

Their sudden decline began as last season’s final-day loss to Manchester United condemned them to the Europa League instead of the Champions League, thus significantly limiting their freedom to spend in this summer’s transfer window.

In the summer itself, most of the talk surrounding Villa related to player exits as Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers and Emiliano Martinez were linked with moves before sticking around, while Jadon Sancho and Harvey Elliot were among the very few notable arrivals.

The overall feeling of malaise at the club following an uneasy summer carried over onto the pitch as Villa did not come close to performing to their maximum and failed to win any of their opening six matches across all competitions inside 90 minutes.

But once Aston Villa got up and running with a 1-0 win against Bologna on September 25, Emery‘s side have rarely looked back.

Losses against Go Ahead Eagles and Liverpool are the only blotches on an otherwise remarkable run of 11 wins in 13 matches in all competitions, as they have moved joint-top of the Europa League group phase and into the Premier League top four.

And by the end of this week, the Villans have a chance, albeit a slim one, of being level on points with Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table.

It really is a stunning turnaround that is particularly impressive considering Aston Villa are not yet playing their best football.

MORE ASTON VILLA COVERAGE ON F365… 👉 Villa star ‘wants to move’ as two parties regret Man Utd transfer verdict with ‘relationship broken’ 👉 Emery actions speak volumes as Liverpool set to miss out on £35m windfall with Villa star ignored 👉 Premier League prize money table revealed as Arsenal and Liverpool slip behind shock teams

Thankfully, football is not based on xG, but this data does offer an insight into how teams are actually performing and it is clear that Aston Villa are currently massively overachieving.

In FotMob’s xG table, Aston Villa are down in 17th as they have an expected points tally of 14 from their 13 games, which is 10 fewer than their actual total and level with Wolves’ total.

This means Aston Villa are 13 places higher than they theoretically should be; there is no greater disparity between a team’s xG and actual points in the Premier League.

Aston Villa are in such differing positions in each table because they have heavily relied on goals from distance, a resolute defence and, possibly most importantly, the brilliance of Emery to overcome their issues and enter the title conversation instead of the relegation picture.

It is not sustainable for this to continue to such a degree, but there should be a levelling-out process in the coming months as Aston Villa gain more points through performance merit rather than those three key factors.

By which point, Aston Villa, partly due to the inconsistency and lack of quality of teams around them, could be cemented in the Champions League places and be dreaming of something greater.

For now, Villa and England star Ezri Konsa “won’t speak about the title” as he “doesn’t think they are dark horses”. Take a look at the table, fella.