World Cup 2026 dark horses power rankings: Japan, Colombia, Turkey… | OneFootball

The World Cup is just a few days away from kicking off and, as always, dark horses are being touted for a surprise run at the tournament.

While those horses often stumble out of the starting blocks, it does not stop us from picking who away from the favourites could do well in the tournament.

So with the North American tournament set to kick off, here are our power rankings of seven World Cup dark horses.

7) Uruguay

Bielsa’s last dance?

The now 70-year-old has been in charge of Uruguay for three years – turning them into a Leeds-style pressing machine – but the original World Cup winners went on a run of one win in 12 during their qualification and finished fourth.

Luis Suarez has gone and – when he’s not getting punched by team-mates – Federico Valverde is key to this ‘run until you die’ approach. Uruguay should of course be used to the kind of temperatures and humidity European squads will face but even they may find the tanks empty if Bielsa asks them to go all out in the group.

Attacking-wise, there are questions with this generation of strikers a step down from Suarez and Edinson Cavani. The human Labrador Darwin Nunez has not impressed since moving to Saudi and had his contract ripped up. If Uruguay are ever restricted to just a few chances, you would want someone a little more clinical on the end of them.

They are in tournament favourites Spain’s group so second is probably the best they can hope for. Do that and they may well face Argentina in the first knockout round. Good luck to the referee for that one.

6) Croatia

It is perhaps harsh to even suggest Croatia are dark horses considering they finished third at the 2022 tournament and were finalists in 2018, but age has somewhat caught up with them.

Luka Modric has almost 200 caps but is now 40 and has reportedly decided this will be his last summer of football. Ivan Perisic is there too at the age of 37 and their starting striker will likely be the 34-year-old Ante Budimir.

But Premier League stars Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic are expected to elevate the team, even if both are struggling with injuries.

The team looks pretty solid at the back but it’s hard to see where the goals will come from.

5) Turkey

A frequent dark horse shout for the Euros, Turkey are playing in their first World Cup since 2002 and have enough talent to spring an upset.

Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz are the youthful stars (they weren’t born the last time their country made it to the finals) but there is experience there too in the form of Hakan Calhanoglu.

They are in a favourable group against a US team that looks primed to be weighed down by expectation, while Paraguay were not overly convincing in qualifying.

Topping the group could mean a round-of-32 tie against Austria before a likely round-of-16 tie against Belgium, another classic of the dark horse genre.

4) Morocco

Morocco were the surprise package of 2022 and they may well be so again in 2026.

Any Arsenal fans watching on may find themselves thinking that looks familiar as Morocco’s game plan is built on defensive solidity and set pieces. They kept a tournament-best five clean sheets in this year’s AFCON and scored a tournament-best four goals from dead balls.

PSG’s Achraf Hakimi is the superstar while Brahim Diaz should probably be kept well away from any penalty shootouts but a potential path through the tournament will come from low blocks and tight scorelines.

They won’t be the neutrals’ favourite to watch but as Mikel Arteta’s team showed, it can be very effective.

3) Norway

It’s not often that a country that has not qualified for the World Cup since 1998 is being touted as dark horses but whisper it and Norway may well be enjoying a golden generation.

The obvious star is Erling Haaland, who has a claim to be the best striker in the world, and scoring goals was a big part of Norway’s qualifying run. The Løvene (Lions) scored 37 and conceded just five in their run to North America, though doing so in the tournament itself will be another test.

Second may well be the best they can hope for given they share a group with France but they would be rewarded with a round-of-32 tie against Ecuador. They’d fancy that.

2) Colombia

It may be because of their usually excellent kits but Colombia are never too far away from the dark horse tag, even if their recent performances have not justified it.

A quarter-final in 2014 inspired by James Rodriguez looked to be the start of something but they were knocked out in the last 16 in 2018 and failed to even qualify in 2022.

Qualifying this time round was not straightforward either. They finished 10 points off winners Argentina with the most goals conceded of any CONMEBOL side to qualify automatically.

But if they are somewhat shaky at the back, they make up for it up front. Argentina scored just three more goals than Colombia and central to that is Luis Diaz. The winger has gone up a level performance-wise since swapping Merseyside for Bavaria and was surpassed only by Lionel Messi for goals in qualifying.

Luis Suarez (not that one) also knows where the goal is with four in qualifying and 28 for Sporting in Liga Portugal this season. 2014 star James Rodriguez may now play in the MLS but still turns up for his national side, assisting seven goals in qualifying.

They share a group with Portugal, who could be weighed down with the human anchor Cristiano Ronaldo up front, but they will be confident of second at least. A Diaz reunion with Mo Salah could be on the cards in that case in the round of 32.

1) Japan

This Japan team has been described as the best ever Asian representative at a World Cup, which is a lot to live up to, but it is a squad with plenty of technical talent.

The loss of Kaoru Mitoma through injury is a huge blow but Takefusa Kubo and Kaishu Sano can fill that void.

This is also a team that lost just once in their 16 qualifying matches and if that was down to a poor group, defeating England at Wembley in a friendly was another milestone. They arrive at this summer’s tournament with a lot of hope for what is to come next.

They have never made it past the round of 16 but have a good chance to do just that. Firstly, they need to win a group that includes the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia, and topping that means they should face Morocco rather than Brazil in the round of 32.

The winners of that will most likely play Bosnia, where Japan would back themselves, but a quarter-final against either Germany or France could mark the end of the tournament.