World Cup 2026, Italy chasing a miracle: all the ways to top Group I | OneFootball

This evening in Chisinau, Gennaro Gattuso's Italy faces Moldova in a crucial match for the journey towards the 2026 World Cup. The Azzurri, currently second in Group I, will take the field at 20:45 (Italian time) already knowing if their fate will still be in their own hands.

2026 World Cup, Italy in search of a miracle: all the combinations for first place in Group I

In fact, the other decisive match, Norway–Estonia, is played earlier at 18:00 in Oslo. The result of the match involving Haaland and his teammates will largely determine Italy's hopes of clinching first place.

To put it clearly, direct qualification is still possible, but it will require a small sporting miracle.

The situation in Group I

With two matches remaining, the standings are:

Norway – 18 points

Italy – 15 points

Israel – 9 points

Estonia – 4 points

Moldova – 1 point

Only Norway and Italy remain in the race for first place. All others are already out of the qualification games.

Goal difference: the key factor

In case of a tie on points, FIFA regulations state that the overall goal difference counts, not head-to-head results. And here, Italy suffers a significant delay.

Norway: 29 goals scored, 3 conceded → +26

Italy: 18 goals scored, 8 conceded → +10

This means that, to finish on top, the Azzurri must earn more points than the Norwegians in the last two games. Alternatively, a turnaround in goal difference would be needed: an almost impossible prospect, which would imply winning with very large scores against Moldova and Norway.

What Italy needs for first place

All Italian hopes rest on Norway–Estonia.

If Norway wins, they rise to 21 points and effectively close the group in first place, regardless of the Azzurri's results.

If they draw or lose, Italy could still hope for an overtake by winning the last two matches.

In the first leg, the Norwegians had beaten Estonia only 1-0 in Tallinn, struggling more than expected: a small glimmer of hope for Gattuso's team.

All possible scenarios

Here are the official combinations that would allow Italy to finish first in the group:

Italy beats Moldova and Norway, and Norway does not beat Estonia;

Italy beats Moldova and Norway with large scores, surpassing Norway in goal difference;

Italy draws with Moldova, beats Norway, and Norway loses to Estonia.

In all other cases, the Azzurri will finish in second place, having to face the playoffs to secure a ticket to the North American World Cup.

A finale to live with bated breath

Italy's fate thus passes through Oslo and an evening that could prove decisive. Gattuso has repeatedly emphasized that, "as long as mathematics allows it, we must believe," but the reality is that it will require an almost perfect combination of results and performances.

In Chisinau, Italy must take the field with only one objective: to win and hope.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.