World Cup 2026: Will there be a World Cup winner from Serie A? | OneFootball

The 2026 World Cup is now entering its decisive phase. The quarter-finals are just around the corner, and several Serie A professionals remain in the hunt for the world title. But which Serie A players have the best chances with their respective national teams?

The tournament has already seen its fair share of surprises. Turkey, featuring Juve star Kenan Yıldız, was eliminated in the group stage, as were the Brazilians, who included Serie A players Éderson (Atalanta) and Bremer (Juve). Other major nations, such as Germany and the Netherlands, also had to head home early.

Now, the quarter-finals await. In the first half of the draw, France faces Morocco and Spain takes on Belgium, while in the second half, surprise package Norway meets England, and Argentina plays Switzerland. In total, 22 Serie A players remain in the competition—but which of them have the best shot at the title with their countries? Here is a look at the probabilities and betting odds.

The title underdogs featuring Serie A players

Belgium, Morocco, and Switzerland have already defied the odds in this tournament, managing to beat strong teams on their way to the quarter-finals. However, their chances of pulling off a sensational World Cup victory remain slim.

Belgium, boasting five players based in Serie A, faces reigning European champions Spain in the quarter-finals and could meet France in the semi-finals. These are two formidable opponents that will likely push the Belgian national team—currently in a period of transition—to its limits.

Belgium’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 34.00 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 2,9%

Morocco is considered one of the tournament’s surprise packages, though the team undoubtedly possesses immense individual quality. Reaching the quarter-finals was a thoroughly deserved achievement, yet France might prove to be a step too far for this strong Moroccan side.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JULY 06: Romelu Lukaku #9 of Belgium celebrates with teammates after scoring the team’s fourth goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 match between USA and Belgium at Seattle Stadium on July 06, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)

Morocco’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 34.00 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 2,9%

Switzerland is certainly a team to watch, particularly given their collective unity and the presence of game-changing players like Johan Manzambi. However, he has recently been sidelined by injury, and the match against Colombia likely took a heavy physical toll. Ultimately, Argentina will likely prove an insurmountable hurdle, not least due to the excellent form of Lionel Messi.

Switzerland’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 34.00 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 2,9%

Norway on the Rise

Norway and its fans are currently writing a minor footballing fairy tale and serving up the tournament’s biggest surprise. Off the pitch, Norwegian supporters have created an outstanding atmosphere in the streets and stadiums since the tournament began. An energy that seems to have translated onto the field as well.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – JULY 05: Erling Haaland #9 of Norway gestures towards the fans after scoring his team’s second goal against Brazil during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 16 match between Brazil and Norway at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 05, 2026 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Led by superstar Erling Haaland, the team has impressed so far with exciting attacking football and beautifully crafted goals. Consequently, their quarter-final opponents, England, should prepare to face a Scandinavian side playing with freedom and confidence, a squad that boasts no fewer than five Serie A players.

Norway’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 17.00 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 5,9%

A Repeat of the 2022 World Cup Final?

The two major favourites for the title are, of course, France and Argentina. Even before the tournament began, these two nations were considered the top contenders for World Cup glory, and the French, in particular, have not put a foot wrong so far.

While Argentina struggled somewhat against Cape Verde and Egypt, France impressed against both Sweden and Paraguay, showcasing a variety of strengths. The French will now face Morocco in top form, likely followed by European champions Spain, before a potential rematch of the 2022 final.

Argentina’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 5.00 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 20%

In the final, should the two teams meet head-to-head, it would be very difficult to pick a favourite. Both squads are packed with quality, and as seen in 2022, the outcome often hinges on form on the day. Nevertheless, both then and now, the French are considered the favourites to win the title, at least according to the bookmakers.

France’s chance to win the World Cup

Odds: 2.87 at bet365 (reference date: 9th of July 2026)

Probability: 34,8%

Note: This article was written in collaboration with the experts at MySportwetten.de/ch. All information regarding sports betting in Switzerland, as well as the current betting providers in the country, is listed there.