World Cup play-offs: Italy may face Sweden or North Macedonia | OneFootball

The hard-fought victory against Moldova has made Italy’s path to direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup almost definitively complicated. To secure first place in the group and immediate access, Gennaro Gattuso’s team would need a 9-0 win or better against Norway: a feat bordering on the impossible.

World Cup Playoffs, Italy Faces Two Nightmares from the Past: Sweden and North Macedonia Possible in the Path

It is therefore inevitable to already look ahead to the March playoffs, where among Italy’s possible opponents are two names that evoke bitter memories: Sweden and North Macedonia, the teams responsible for Italy’s missed qualifications in 2017 and 2022.

Who takes part in the playoffs

The following will qualify for the playoffs:

the twelve runners-up from the European groups;

the four best group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League who have not already secured direct qualification or a playoff spot through their group placement.

The draw is scheduled for Thursday, November 20 at 1:00 p.m.: the sixteen national teams will be divided into four paths (A, B, C, and D), each consisting of semifinals and a single-match final. The four winners will fly to the World Cup in Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

How the rules work

The teams are distributed into four pots:

The first three include the twelve group runners-up, ranked according to the FIFA ranking of November 2025.

The fourth pot includes the four teams brought in from the Nations League.

The draw will pair:

first pot vs fourth pot (semifinal at the home of the first pot team),

second pot vs third pot (semifinal at the home of the second pot team).

The final will then pit the winners of the two matchups against each other.

Italy’s opponents: who they might face

Italy, placed in the first pot, will play the playoff semifinal at home against one of the four teams brought in from the Nations League. As of now, the possible rivals are:

Wales

Romania

Sweden

Northern Ireland

Sweden, in particular, represents one of the two nightmares Italy would like to avoid, along with North Macedonia, who could instead be encountered in a potential final.

The potential final opponents are distributed between the second and third pots.

Second pot:

Scotland

Czech Republic

Slovakia

Albania

Third pot:

North Macedonia

Iceland

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Kosovo

Current scenario

Barring an unlikely goal-fest against Norway, Gattuso’s national team will have to prepare for a complex playoff path, with tricky opponents and the weight of recent history. Italy will have the home advantage in the semifinal, but the pressure will be immense: in the last two editions, the Azzurri have fallen precisely at this stage.

March is approaching. And the ghosts of the past are once again on Italy’s path.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.