2026 World Cup Power Rankings as England calmly carry on but Portugal doubts emerge | OneFootball

It is somehow only seven months until the actual World Cup takes place next summer in North America, and that surely means Power Rankings time.

Even now we still only know for sure two-thirds of the teams who will be there, and that means these contain even more than their usual share of arbitrary distinctions, but we’ve tried – tried – to be as fair as we can.

Our idea here is that this list reflects the outcome of a possible World Cup and thus the presence of 52(!) names upon it is no accident; it’s our best current stab at identifying the 46 who will make it (or in many cases now have made it) straight to the finals alongside the six we currently back to contest the inter-confederation play-offs to decide the final two spots available.

So, for instance, 16 UEFA teams will be in the tournament so there are 16 UEFA teams on our list. And so on. Likelihood of qualifying, recent World Cup and continental championship tournament efforts, world rankings, and just our endlessly unreliable gut feel on what kind of impact they might have on the tournament all factor in.

With the various confederations at wildly differing stages of their qualifying process – there are whole continents that have finished while we still only know five official confirmed qualifiers from Europe and, beyond the three co-hosts, none at all from CONCACAF – we really cannot stress enough that these rankings are neither definitive, nor set in stone, nor remotely worth getting worked up about. Okay? Yeah? Okay.

Before proceeding, it will definitely be worth getting up to speed if you’re not already on how precisely the various confederation qualifying processes for the 2026 World Cup work. Because almost all of them are very different now the World Cup is a 48-team beast, and some of them are tremendously convoluted and long-winded.

The 32 teams who are definitely going to be at the World Cup – three hosts, 29 confirmed qualifiers – are marked with a (Q) which represents one of the very few pieces of information upon which you can confidently rely in the below guesswork.

52) New Caledonia

Were one tantalising game away from automatic qualification, but alas for them that one game was inevitably against OFC powerhouses New Zealand and ended in predictable if not yet terminal 3-0 defeat. The first confirmed qualifier for the inter-confederation play-offs that will decide the final two spots at the tournament itself, and thus are even now only two games away from qualification, but will again be the rankest of outsiders to pull off a madness and actually reach the World Cup.

51) Honduras

Qualified in 2010 and 2014 but face an agonising final game of their qualification campaign in which they could yet win their group and head straight to the World Cup, finish third and go out altogether or finish second and wait to see if that’s enough for an inter-confederation play-off spot or not.

50) Curacao

We’re expecting defeat to Jamaica in their final group game to leave them in second place and heading to the inter-confederation play-offs in March rather than the World Cup in June. But nobody is going to be without a puncher’s chance in those play-offs.

49) UAE

Tipped to overcome Iraq in the second leg of their play-off – the first leg ended 1-1 – and secure Asia’s inter-confederation play-off spot.

48) DR Congo

Beat Nigeria in a nerve-jangling sudden-death penalty shoot-out to snatch Africa’s place at the inter-confederation play-off, and the calibre of opposition they’ve beaten to get there puts them above the contenders from Asia and CONCACAF. Just.

47) Bolivia

Confirmed as the South American representative at the inter-confederation play-offs that will take place next March, and whichever South American side ended up in Mexico for that tournament was always going to automatically then be among the favourites to grab one of the two tournament spots on offer.

46) Haiti

Currently only second in their qualifying group, but they trail Honduras only on goal difference. And while Honduras must travel to Costa Rica for their final game, Haiti are at home to already eliminated Nicaragua. It’s a big advantage.

45) New Zealand (Q)

Chris Wood and co. are among the biggest winners of the expanded World Cup format, one that for the first time hands the best team in the OFC a ticket straight to the World Cup rather than a ticklish play-off against Uruguay or some such. Until and unless Australia come crawling back, that ticket is almost certain to go New Zealand’s way as it has this time following a 3-0 win over New Caledonia.

44) Wales

Guaranteed a play-off spot and, while we’re basically just guessing at this point with no real idea who they’ll come up against, we do like the cut of their gib under Craig Bellamy’s steely gaze and fancy them to come through it.

43) Turkey

Have been far too strong for everyone not called Spain in their qualifying group and the good news is that in the play-offs they will not have to face anyone anything like as good as Spain.

42) Panama

The battle for CONCACAF’s three remaining direct qualification spots – three have gone to the USA, Canada and Mexico as co-hosts – is unbelievably tight but Panama’s easier final fixture could just get them over the line in Group A at Suriname’s expense.

41) Jamaica

Haven’t made it back to the World Cup since France 98 but have a glorious opportunity this time, either directly or via the inter-confederation play-off. They sit highest of our CONCACAF contenders on the basis they could still win their qualifying group but look the safest bet for those inter-confederation play-offs should they finish second. It really is all incredibly tight on the home straight here.

40) Italy

It is utterly absurd that by the time of the World Cup it will be two decades since Italy played a knockout game at the game’s biggest event. That knockout game was the 2006 final.

Successive group-stage failures in 2010 and 2014 have been followed by mortifying failures even to reach the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.

And there are no guarantees, even with the expanded format, that a 12-year wait for one of the tournament’s most successful ever sides won’t extend to 16 because they’re going to have to come through the teak-tough UEFA play-offs to get there.

But they should do so.

39) Scotland

Could still beat Denmark to top spot and automatic qualification from UEFA Group C but Scotland have shown enough already to suggest they should be among the favourites for the play-offs if that’s what it takes.

38) Cape Verde (Q)

One of the truly incredible stories of this qualification process, Cape Verde have now confirmed their place at a World Cup for the very first time after winning their group at the expense of Cameroon. Iceland are the only smaller country in terms of population to have ever qualified for a World Cup.

37) Saudi Arabia (Q)

Home advantage helped them get over the line in the fourth stage of AFC qualification after they failed to get the job done in the third stage.

36) Qatar (Q)

The 2023 Asian Cup champions and 2022 hosts had to take the long route to qualification having failed to make it directly to North America from the third round of Asian qualifying, but home advantage for October’s quick-fire fourth group stage helped them over the line and they would expect to do far better than the three defeats they managed on debut last time out.

35) Uzbekistan (Q)

The expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams was always going to offer opportunities, and Uzbekistan were among the first to grab theirs.

They have qualified for every Asian Cup since independence but never before now a World Cup. They are also the first double-landlocked country to reach a World Cup. Time for Liechtenstein to pull their finger out.

34) Jordan (Q)

Another first-time qualifier from the Asian section, while a run to their first ever Asian Cup final in 2023 shows they are not to be lightly dismissed.

33) South Africa (Q)

Hadn’t made it back to the World Cup since hosting in 2010, but finished third at AFCON two years ago and qualified ahead of Nigeria in their 2026 qualification group despite having to forfeit a game they won 2-0 after fielding an ineligible player. Assuming they don’t repeat that particular trick, could bloody a few noses next summer.

32) Ivory Coast (Q)

Came through a tough qualification battle with Gabon to win their group and reach their fourth World Cup.

31) Ghana (Q)

A squad packed with players boasting top-tier club experience in Europe will have eyes on another run to the knockout stages to go with those from 2006 and 2010.

30) Algeria (Q)

One of those countries that feel like they’ve been at more World Cups than is actually the case having only actually been at two finals since the 1980s. They did reach the last 16 when last getting there in 2014, and look pretty nailed on to get through a kind CAF group into this expanded tournament.

29) Denmark

Vying with Scotland for the qualification spot from what has felt a weak UEFA group. Both they and Scotland are assured of at least a play-off spot.

28) Tunisia (Q)

World Cup stalwarts who have secured qualification and now turn attention to another bid to get beyond the group stage for the first time in the finals themselves.

27) Senegal (Q)

Quarter-finalists in 2002 and knocked out by England in the last 16 in Qatar, Senegal have won a tough qualifying group and would expect to get beyond the group stage again.

26) Canada (Q)

Automatic qualifiers with the first objective being to improve on a World Cup finals record that currently reads played six, lost six after group-stage exits in 1986 and 2022. A run to the 2024 Copa America semi-finals in which their only defeats came against Argentina offers plenty of hope.

25) Austria

Need to hold off Bosnia to reach a first World Cup since France 98. Which seems a truly mad amount of time for them not to have made it.

24) Paraguay (Q)

Haven’t appeared at the World Cup finals since a quarter-final appearance in 2010 but are safely through to next summer’s festivities having secured a top-six finish in South American qualification. A humbling experience at last year’s Copa America in the USA isn’t ideal major tournament prep, mind.

23) Australia (Q)

Have secured their spot at a sixth consecutive World Cup and, while no longer the team of Viduka, Kewell and co, remain typically Australian in their reluctance to go quietly and won’t be a team anyone relishes facing in a group game next summer.

Reached the last 16 in Qatar, but haven’t been beyond the quarter-finals of the Asian Cup since winning it in 2015 in Ange Postecoglou’s second year in charge. It’s what he does, mate.

22) Iran (Q)

Have qualified impressively for a fourth consecutive World Cup and now bidding to go beyond the group stage for the first time. Semi-final runs in the last two Asian Cups offer reason for hope.

21) Colombia (Q)

Missed out on Qatar 2022 after finishing sixth in South American qualifying. That would have been good enough this time around with the tournament expansion, but Colombia ended up third in what was a tightly packed bunch of automatic CONMEBOL qualifiers stumbling over the line behind runaway leaders Argentina.

Reached the quarter-finals and last 16 in 2014 and 2018 and finished third and second in the last two editions of the Copa America to highlight tournament know-how that should not be lightly dismissed.

20) South Korea (Q)

Haven’t missed a World Cup since 1982 and never really looked like doing so this time around after a rock-solid AFC qualification campaign.

19) Egypt (Q)

A strong contender for biggest World Cup underachievers given they are seven-time champions of Africa with a long and deep football heritage who have nevertheless made it to only three World Cup finals, with a best of the last 16 (when it was in fact then the first round) back in 1934. Went out in the group stage in 1990 and 2018 but looked very decent indeed in qualification this time around. Mo Salah were among the earlier African teams to confirm top spot – and thus World Cup qualification – in their group.

18) Croatia (Q)

Finalists and semi-finalists in the last two World Cups which commands obvious respect, and they have safely negotiated their way out of a tough qualifying section where Czech Republic and quite wonderfully the Faroe Islands have proved worthy adversaries. But we do worry about an ageing squad when tournament time rolls around at the end of another long season of club football.

17) Belgium

The golden generation is fading from view but they remain ranked inside the world’s top eight and now need only avoid a complete calamity against Liechtenstein to confirm their World Cup spot.

16) Switzerland

Two things we know about Switzerland at the World Cup. They qualify, and then they get out of the group, and then they go out in the last 16. That’s been the case at five of the last eight. It’s not quite Mexico levels, but it’s the closest Europe can manage.

A four-team qualifying group containing Sweden and Slovenia looked ticklish, but they’ve p*ssed it. Helped along the way by Sweden and Slovenia being bobbins and Kosovo emerging as their closest rival.

15) Mexico (Q)

Finally ended their streak of seven straight last-16 World Cup exits in Qatar, but not in the way they would have wanted. Qualified automatically as hosts, and did win the CONCACAF Gold Cup in 2023 before failing to get beyond the group stage of the 2024 Copa America.

14) USA (Q)

Have reached the knockout stages at five of the last eight World Cups and would expect to at least match the last-16 effort from the last time they hosted in 1994.

13) Japan (Q)

First qualified for the World Cup in 1998 and haven’t missed one since. Won’t miss this one either having powered through the convoluted Asian qualification process in style and if they can land a favourable draw next summer will absolutely be contenders to improve on their previous best of a last-16 exit.

12) Ecuador (Q)

Have only once made it beyond the World Cup group stage – in 2006, when they were narrowly beaten by England in the last 16 – but have now reached a fifth World Cup in the last seven, having also reached the quarter-finals in three of the last four Copa Americas.

11) Germany

Something strange has happened to Germany in recent tournament cycles. The old rule was that no matter how unconvincing they might look between majors, you could famously Never Rule Out The Germans when the serious business of tournament ball began.

The new rule is that no matter how good they look between majors, you simply cannot trust a really exciting squad of players to deliver when the big tournaments come around.

And now they’re actually starting to look quite rubbish in between tournaments as well. If losing from 1-0 up against Portugal in the Nations League semi-finals is unfortunate but forgivable, starting a World Cup qualification campaign that ought to be a formality with a 2-0 defeat to Slovakia is less so.

They have recovered their composure a bit since and will still almost certainly make it to North America next summer but by then it will be 10 years since they reached a World Cup or Euros semi-final, with little current evidence that they deserve your trust they can put that right.

10) Uruguay (Q)

Already through to the 2030 World Cup as well as a ‘commemorative match host’ and came safely through the CONMEBOL qualification process with a game to spare as they look to put a disappointing 2022 World Cup behind them.

9) Norway (Q)

An inexplicably miserable major tournament record having last reached the World Cup in 1998 and not even getting themselves to a Euros since 2000.

But a solid squad sprinkled with plenty of stardust thanks to your Erling Haalands and Martin Odegaards will be a dark horse next summer. They won all eight games in qualification – thrashing Italy home and away and scoring 37 goals across the campaign – to confirm their place in North America next summer. Absolutely nobody is going to want to face them early.

8) Portugal (Q)

For at least the fifth time, Portugal are preparing themselves for Cristiano Ronaldo’s major tournament farewell because surely this has to be the last one, right? Not even with Argentina does one player so dominate the attention, but Portugal have looked the business yet again in the Nations League where they have beaten Germany and Spain to emerge as champions with Ronaldo still very much their main man.

But they stumbled over the line in qualification. And their recent actual-major-tournament record is spotty; they haven’t been beyond the quarter-finals in four attempts since sh*thousing their way to Euro 2016 title glory riding a wave of draws.

7) Morocco (Q)

One of the great stories of the last World Cup, where they became the first African side ever to reach the last four. Also the first African team to qualify for 2026 and should go well again.

6) Brazil (Q)

These are not glorious times for world football’s most decorated nation having made just one World Cup semi-final since 2002, and even that is one they would rather not talk about too much, thanks all the same.

A quarter-final exit at last year’s Copa America and none-too-convincing qualifying campaign don’t exactly indicate all is about to change, but they have qualified comfily enough and are still Brazil. And now they have Carlo Ancelotti and his eyebrows. Which could be massive. And not just the eyebrows.

5) Netherlands

Narrowly beaten by Argentina in the quarters in Qatar and somehow beaten by England in the Euros semi-finals, so recent tournament pedigree is solid enough and the squad is positively dripping in Premier League quality.

Still not mathematically sure of qualifying until their final game is played, but qualify they will. It would take a goal-difference madness to prevent it.

4) England (Q)

A formline through their last four major tournaments of SF-RU-QF-RU is one that has to be respected even if the specifics of just how England did it remain something of a puzzle involving an uncanny gift for landing on the right side of the draw every single time.

Have a clear laser focus on this tournament under one-and-done coach Thomas Tuchel, and won all eight of their qualifiers – without conceding a goal – to become the first European team to secure their place for next summer.

Performances have started to match results in the last few international breaks, with some pretty clear signs Tuchel is getting to grips with the players at his disposal and marking England out as a team who will have to be taken seriously next summer.

3) France (Q)

Winners and runners-up in the last two World Cups, narrowly beaten by Spain in the Euro semi-finals, and third-place finishers in the Nations League. It’s some solid tournament pedigree for a side sure to be among the teams to beat next summer.

2) Spain

Won the Euros in thrilling style and possess a young, deep squad that should only improve, though they did lose the Nations League final to Portugal. Are making short work of qualification and are the current favourites with the bookies.

1) Argentina (Q)

No point overcomplicating things at this stage. Argentina are the current holders of both the World Cup and the Copa America and surely the likeliest winner among the teams already confirmed to be part of next summer’s festivities having absolutely dominated South American qualifying.

Concerns around an ageing squad’s ability to negotiate an even longer tournament are valid, but right now are concerns for another day.