A repeating death sentence: Milan’s very own Groundhog Day | OneFootball

This weekend signifies the return of the international break, and also the return of the dreaded ‘_ game cycle’. AC Milan’s confidence in Paulo Fonseca is dwindling, and as history shows, it is effectively a relapse, if not just a premeditated death sentence.

In Groundhog Day, Bill Murray repeats the same day 38 times on screen, but the figure is believed to be around 12,000 times. While Milan are not anywhere near a similar figure, we can look at the similarities. A repeating cycle and a painful cycle.

Since the start of last season, there have been five explicit occasions where the Rossoneri have given their head coach x amount of games to save their job, so let’s take a look.

The previous renditions

We first go back to October 2023, when whispers emerged about confidence in Stefano Pioli’s position – after all, the 5-1 humiliation against Inter set things off to a bad start. But it was not until November though, when the cycle began.

After a collapse against Lecce, Pioli was given five games to save his position. Which he did with wins against Fiorentina, Frosinone and Newcastle United – whilst this was enough to stop the management from taking action, they did not progress into the knockout stages of the Champions League, which was a massively damaging blow.

Then at the end of December, Milan drew against Salernitana, and reports suggested a similar tale, albeit the 58-year-old had three games to save himself on this occasion. This time, the Diavolo went three for three, and his job was saved, but there were suggestions that his role ‘belonged’ to Antonio Conte or Roberto De Zerbi.

In the months that followed, talk of Pioli’s future was rife. Even if there were few suggestions that he was in the immediate firing line. However, the Rossoneri always seemed one poor result away from reopening the can, and as stated in a deep dive into the situation in January a shadow began to loom over the coach.

The next catastrophic result was the 4-2 defeat against Monza in February, and once again the situation reached a boiling point – this time a timeframe wasn’t speculated, but rather Pioli had to deliver European success.

Finally, we have the ‘month of truth’ – April. By this point, Pioli’s fate seemed secure, he was set to go. However, there was a slight possibility that he could remain, so whilst this does not hold the same weight as the previous examples, it still filters under the ‘period to save a job’ category.

When the season ended, Pioli was given his well wishes, and the management elected Paulo Fonseca to succeed him. However, the curse was not archived with the Italian coach’s sacking. Instead, it has been triggered much sooner than what would’ve been hoped.

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Before the first international break, the new head coach was facing similar rumours – his job was on the line after a poor start. When he returned, the games against Venezia, Liverpool and Inter would be pivotal to saving his job – Fonseca’s first experience of the cycle.

Of course, we know what happened in those three games – win, loss, win. After the defeat to Liverpool, his job seemed to be already gone, but the win against the Nerazzurri showed signs of promise – giving the Portuguese head coach credit in the bank.

A win against Lecce further reaffirmed the confidence in the head coach, but the losses against Bayer Leverkusen and Fiorentina have restarted the trial regarding his position, and once again a verdict will be reached by the end of next month.

Milan’s Nth rendition

Imaginably, Milan will have to get at least 10 points from these games. Winning against Udinese would settle things before a decisive Champions League fixture, then there are two equally important games against Bologna and Napoli. Of course, the final game of this bundle holds more precedence.

The Partenopei currently lead the Serie A table, and with Antonio Conte at the helm, it could be a double blow. Conte’s name was heavily linked to the vacant job in the summer, and losing to him would not only be a loss for the management but also a loss to the fans, given an eight-point gap would be formed between the two clubs.

An eight-point gap dictated by the coach heavily requested by the fans. An eight-point gap against a manager who has been scrutinised more than praised.

Perhaps, relighting the fire between the fans and the management.

We are straying from the point, though. The basics are very clear. Now, for the sixth time in 15 months, Milan are piling the pressure onto a manager, and as the Pioli case study shows us, this is a dangerous cycle. Each resuscitation of the ‘_ game saviour period’ is a direct blow to Fonseca’s position in every way possible.

Above all, it undermines his position. Persistent questions of his qualities result in a lack of confidence in his ability to then steer the club out of the position, which heightens with each repetition of the cycle. Of course, this is speculative, but this probably has an effect on the squad mentally, and with questions about his power over the squad, these problems only deepen.

This is exactly the problem that Milan face, though. Within one paragraph, there are three clear issues, with an added speculation. A speculation which is heightened by the entire fanbase, causing the situation to further intensify if nothing else.

With an almost automated questioning of his position – or just generally that of the manager – the faith in the head coach drops. Because ultimately, after three games, this question will not go away. To add to this, we already know the management have begun to consider other candidates, showing they have doubts about the possibility of the manager. However, can the fans trust them to hire an apt replacement?

In the past 12 months, they have shown an inability to make calls when required – potentially if Pioli was sacked at a different stage last season, could more fruits have been reaped from the year?

Within nine games of Fonseca’s management, three games have already been vital to his future, and the next three/four follow this trend. Overall, this would mean that at least half of his games in charge of the club – if he sees out the next month – would have been in this period of pressure.

A horrific reality for a manager who was meant to be the step forward after Pioli, because with each week – and at this rate, international break – Fonseca’s appointment looks more and more questionable.

Repeated errors

Returning to Groundhog Day, in the majority of Phil Connors’ repeated days, he takes the chance to learn things, better himself, and reflect on his prior mistakes. Milan must now do that, and learn from their mistakes. They cannot keep indirectly throwing managers under the bus by offering them a chance to save themselves.

For the Rossoneri, it has never been a chance to save yourself for the season, but rather a chance to postpone your own demise – as history has shown, this postponement has rarely been longer than a month. Ultimately, this cannot keep occurring.

With each instance this chance is given, reputation falls. The manager is seen as less worthy of leading the club, and faith in the management to A) make the right call, and B) hire the ‘right’ replacement falls significantly.

It boils down to trust, and with each seemingly desperate attempt to avoid humiliation because of previous decisions, faith falls in the hopes they will get the next decision right. A cycle which hurts the manager, but more so, the management.