AC Milan v Liverpool Tips: Back 'boring' Reds to make this an unders game at 16/5 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Liverpool's trip to Milan looks a chance to play the unders

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - says backing Liverpool matches to go down low scoring avenues could be a profitable theory. He advises a 16/5 unders Bet Builder for their Champions League opener...

Two teams still in transistion?

This fixture certainly stirs Champions League nostalgia.

Liverpool's comeback in the 2005 final in Istanbul was perhaps the greatest comeback in the competition's history before the Italians got their revenge in the 2007 final where Filippo Inzaghi, what a finisher - was at the double.

It's hard to be too positive on this AC Milan team in their current transition state under the reign of Paulo Fonseca, who replaced Stefano Pioli in the summer. They may have finished second last season in Serie A but it was a distant second, 19 points behind champions Inter Milan and the seven-time European champions folded badly in the run-in.

Across the two campaigns, Milan have only won two of their last 14 fixtures across all competitions.

Fonseca needs time to implement his ideals before coming to a firm conclusion on how they'll fare this season but there have been clear teething problems at the back in his first four league games.

Milan aren't conceding a high volume of shots but the ones they are giving up are high quality chances. To have conceded 4.4 worth of expected goals in four game despite facing just 28 shots points to some wayward xG per shot data. I'm not getting too carried away with their 4-0 stroll over recently promoted Venezia, who look a tame attacking unit and are likely to be relegated straight back.

Compare that to how Liverpool have started the campaign under their new manager Arne Slot when it comes to defensive output and investing in this Liverpool defence to keep clean sheets appeals.

Slot has quickly turned a relentless pressing team into a more controlled football team out of possession that are very organized and aware of restricting the opposition to any sort of counter-attack.

Slow burner points to unders

It took a classy strike from Callum Hudson-Odoi to break Liverpool's clean sheet record on Saturday in another solid defensive performance despite the 1-0 loss, where only 0.44 worth of expected goals were given up. It equates to just a per 90 expected goals against record of 0.70 from their four matches.

I'm expecting Liverpool to play very cautiously on the road in Europe this season and it's the under goal lines that stands out at the prices here and building a bet focused on that angle appeals, especially when we can snap up 11/8 on the under 2.5 goals line. That price seems to be based on a Jurgen Klopp-managed Liverpool - not a Slot one.

The first half under 0.5 goals line, in other words backing the 0-0 at the break, is also too big to pass up based on Liverpool's first half performances under Slot in the four matches so far. They've played with the handbrake on in the early knockings.

It's football geared towards greater control and less chaos under which is seeing their first half shots lines affected from the Klopp era. They have fired just 3-5-4-6 first half shots in games against Ipswich, Brentford, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest, generating an expected goals tally per first half of just 0.51 with two of those games being goalless at the break.

Sky Sports' Paul Merson labelled Liverpool as "boring to watch" in the defeat to Forest - let's hope for more of the same in Milan.

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