Brentford v Manchester City: Champions can win goal-laden game

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·13 de enero de 2025

Brentford v Manchester City: Champions can win goal-laden game

English Premier League

Bernardo Silva: Has drawn 3+ fouls in three of his last five games

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Manchester City appear to have turned the corner and Andy Schooler has found a way to back them at 6/4 to beat struggling Brentford on Tuesday night...

Brentford v Manchester CityTuesday 14 January, 19:30

Call me an after-timer but Manchester City's troubles were never going to last forever.

It remains remarkable that a side that has dominated English football for the past decade managed just one win in 13 matches but the corner appears to have been turned.

City back in winning groove?

It's now three straight victories for Pep Guardiola's men and what is ominous for forthcoming opponents is that time and again they've found the winning groove at the turn of the year.

They've almost certainly left themselves too much to do in terms of another Premier League title but few would be that surprised were they to start climbing up the table from their current unfamiliar position of sixth - not even a European spot as things stand.

Leicester and West Ham have both been beaten in the league recently, while Saturday's 8-0 demolition of Salford by Guardiola's 'fringe XI' certainly had echoes of better City sides than this.

That said, City's biggest problems have come on the road, with six of their last eight in all competitions lost.

Bees have lost their sting

The good news on that front is this game appears to come at a good time for them.

Not only has their own form hit an upturn but Brentford's has nosedived.

It's just one win in seven for the Bees following Saturday's embarrassing FA Cup exit at the hands of Championship strugglers Plymouth. Most worryingly, home results have not been forthcoming - the last three have now been lost. That's a far cry from the early stages of the season when they were hugely impressive at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Still, Thomas Frank's men do possess the players who can trouble City.

How to back City at 6/4

The champions' biggest vulnerability this season has been being hit on the break - they simply don't seem to have a player who has the same natural instinct as Rodri and subsequently big holes have been left in front of their defence.

The likes of Bryan Mbeumo (9 home goals) and Yoane Wissa (8) have the pace and purpose to punish such negligence and I'm keen on Brentford scoring here.

City are certainly backable at 1.71 in the 90-minute betting (for the record, Brentford at 5.1) but to get a bigger price I'm going to side with them winning and both teams scoring, a 6/4 shot.

Six of City's 10 Premier League wins this season have come via this method, while they've conceded in seven of their last eight away matches. 70% of their matches have seen both teams score.

Brentford's equivalent figure is even higher at 75%, while seven of their nine defeats have come despite them finding the net.

Moving on to the sub-markets, it may be worth seeing if James McAtee's hat-trick against Salford earns him a place in the starting XI. It's probably unlikely but 13/5 about him to score again will be of interest if he does make the cut.

Mikkel Damsgaard is another who may be worth turning to, especially for those who feel City's defensive problems remain a massive concern.

Only Mo Salah and Bukayo Saka have had more assists than the Dane this season and he's 9/2 for another here.

Damsgaard has also been reliable in the shots market, having at least one in 10 of his last 12 league starts.

Silva fouls bet worth a punt

However, the one I like most from the sub-markets is for Bernardo Silva to draw 2+ fouls.

It's a punt for sure because these are the two lowest foulers in the top flight and that's the reason we've got some big-looking odds in the market.

But Brentford need a reaction after recent results and we all know the problems that standing off City can cause.

In the midfield, Silva will be up against Brentford's leading fouler in Christian Norgaard. Despite the Bees' position in the fouls table, he's still managed 1.62 fouls per 90 minutes this season.

The Portuguese has been fouled 3+ times in three of his last five games and with referee Anthony Taylor slightly above average in terms of fouls per game, odds of 9/2 look worth taking a chance on.

For a possible Bet Builder, you could add a Damsgaard shot and both teams to score to Silva 2+ fouls drawn to create a 10/1 treble.

Opta fact

Brentford have lost more Premier League games having scored the first goal than any other side this season (5), while Manchester City have won the most games having conceded first in the competition this term (4).